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Market Trends with TracyMAJOR CORN NEWSYear to date, beef harvest is down 4.2% and this will continue into 2024. It's a tough time to buy beef with prices moving up in almost every category. Poultry prices continue higher again for next week as well. We've almost gone a month with no new Avian Flu cases reported. Corn has finally fallen, which is good news for everyone in the food business. Pork bellies closed at $114 this week which is $52 down from last week. It's buying time again. Butts, loins, and ribs are all great options too. Pork is a good buy in protein. The dairy market is...2023-09-0103 minMarket Trends with TracyProtein Ping PongRestricted beef production levels are having the desired effect. Pretty much every category is moving higher. Hopefully, after Labor Day, this market will settle down. Buy what you need now, next week will be more money. Chicken pricing is up on wings, breasts, and tenders. Chicken is still a good protein value, but buy what you need now. This market will continue to go up. For some good news, there are no new Avian Flu cases to report. Grains are moving down this week and things are looking okay there. Pork bellies continue to drop with better pricing on...2023-08-2503 minMarket Trends with TracyBeef Holds Strong With Higher PricesBeef processors continue to keep the market tight with another light production week, 603K head harvested last week down from the previous weeks already low 613K. This continues to keep product tight and pricing steady to moving higher. Ribeyes, chucks and rounds are all moving higher. Loins and ground beef trading sideways but I do think they will see appreciation over the next couple weeks. Once we get passed the Labor Day holiday if we get more cattle on the market we could see a couple weeks buying opportunity before the positioning for the holiday. I think this is a bu...2023-08-1803 minMarket Trends with TracyGood Week for GrainsBeef production continued with another light week which keeps product tight and pricing steady to moving higher. We could see a change in this after Labor Day. It's a buy-what-you-need situation, but you may find a deal out there. For chicken, it's another week of pricing moving higher on wings, breasts, and tenders. Even with increased prices, chicken is still a great protein value. No new Avian Flu cases were reported this week. It was a good week for grain markets, as all are moving lower. Pork bellies closed lower this week and it looks like we have a...2023-08-1803 minMarket Trends with TracyPoultry Rises, Pork FallsPoultry prices continue to rise on all cuts and categories in the chicken world. Demand for fresh chicken is increasing as well. There is still value here but look for continued increases in chicken. For the third week in a row, one new Avian Flu report from the same county in NY affects 800 birds. Beef production continues lower keeping any price reductions from happening during this season of weak demand. Better weather forecasts and rain have helped corn to close lower this week. Soy has stabilized and wheat is moving down. Pretty much the whole pork complex is moving...2023-08-1103 minMarket Trends with TracyHot Weather Slows Protein ProductionHot, summer weather is slowing down production on beef and chicken, making prices inch higher in most circumstances. There are not many bargains to be had in beef, but waiting to buy will cost you money. Chicken is still a good value in protein, but we are seeing a steady move higher. Another Avian Flu report was made in the same county in New York with 490 more birds infected. Still the only new cases since May, but something to keep an eye on. Corn is down from last week, and soy is finally seeing an end to the several...2023-08-0403 minMarket Trends with TracyDairy Markets Sky RocketTight supplies and inflated prices in beef will be an ongoing issue. For next week, a few lower middle meats, again not big moves but moving lower. Grinds, chucks, and rounds are holding up. One more week of buy what you need, but next week should see better pricing. Chicken remains the value in proteins., with strong production numbers and prices just inching up. Sadly, on Tuesday we had the first reported Avian Flu case since May 18th. 660 birds in New York. There is a lot of action in grains with tension in Russia and Ukraine, drought concerns, and...2023-07-2804 minMarket Trends with TracyPork Bellies Continue to SoarThe beef market continues to slowly move lower on middle meats, thin meats, chucks, and rounds. Ground beef holds steady. Buy product if you need it, but waiting a week may save you money. Chicken production continues strong and prices are moving higher in wings and breasts. Tenders are moving a little lower. We have gone over two months with no new Avian Flu cases reported. Grains are seeing a ton of action with prices going up on everything. Pork bellies are up $35 from last week. Butts are moving lower and loins are just a little higher but still...2023-07-2103 minMarket Trends with TracyPork Heats UpPork… here is the hot market. Bellies closed yesterday at $158 up from $141 last week. Bacon producers are raising prices daily. I thought $160-$170 might be a peak come August but I may be undervaluing this market. Getting bacon bought is not a bad idea. On the butt side we seem to have peaked for the current market and moving lower but again, temper any expectations for lower costs. It will be lower but only so much. Loins as always ,that is the value and ribs in the height of the season continue a good value. Savalfoo...2023-07-1403 minMarket Trends with TracyHas Poultry Finally Moved Past the Avian Flu?Chicken continues to be the protein value. No changes for next week in wings, boneless skinless random breasts or tenders. Production numbers continue strong so there is product available and at good values. With production numbers continuing this strong, I don’t see much change to this pattern right now. A quick note that we continue with no new Avian Flu reports. All good news on the poultry front. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, ...2023-07-0703 minMarket Trends with TracyPork Politics | Why some pork will have to re-route around MassachusettsPork is recovering from the crazy few weeks prior to Prop 12 implementation which is now pushed to January 1. I mentioned Massachusetts and their new regulations which go into effect July 12. A quirk or feature of the MA rules is no pork can be in transit through the state that doesn’t meet there new regulations, so product destined north of MA will have to route around the state. Looking at actual pork and not the politics around it, bellies closed at $105, up from last week’s $99 so I do think we will see a steady increase through summer. Butts continue...2023-06-3003 minMarket Trends with TracyThe Impact of California's Prop 12California Prop 12, the animal welfare bill, was deemed constitutional by the Supreme Court on May 11 of this year. The new law has an effective date of July 1. California processors, retailers, foodservice, and anyone dealing with pork have been buying anything they can get their hands on and getting it shipped prior to the July 1 deadline. This has tossed the whole industry upside down, prices have shot up quickly, product availability is all of the sudden tight, and just to beat the July 1 deadline. However yesterday, the judge in charge of this case delayed implementation until Jan 1, 2024. 2023-06-2305 minMarket Trends with TracyRed Hot Beef MarketLast week the overall beef market took a sharp turn higher and this week is more of the same. Every cut of beef is moving higher again this week. Post holiday harvest was a pretty modest 615K head which is up from the holiday week of 573K head but these restricted harvest numbers continue to pressure the market higher. Middle meats are up strong, rounds, chucks, thin meats especially continue to demand premium dollars. I think we have to get passed the July 4th holiday and this market will come off, but that is a few weeks away. Same advi...2023-06-1603 minMarket Trends with TracyHow Things Can Change In A WeekThe end of last week beef pricing started heating up and this week it is not stopping. Demand is finally pushing these reduced harvest numbers and in turn pushing pricing higher. On the holiday shortened week the beef harvest was 573K head, down from the prior week’s 625K head. You will see increasing prices across the board on beef products. Especially affected are the thin meats, briskets, flank, sirloin flap, but you will see increases in rounds, chucks, grinds, pretty much everything is pushing higher. Until production numbers increase (not likely) or buyers reduce demand I don’t think we...2023-06-0903 minMarket Trends with TracyLowest Block Prices Since May 2020Beef harvest declined to 625K head last week, compared to the prior week’s 642K head. Year-to-date production is running about 5% below last year making a pretty tight market for available product. It's a good time to buy what you need but I would not be extending beyond that. Production continues pretty strong keeping chicken well supplied. We should see this pattern continue. As for Avian Flu – I have nothing to say other than great news of another week with no new cases reported. Corn closed at $6.44 up from last week’s $6.37. Soy Oil is moving up just a bit, we...2023-06-0203 minMarket Trends with TracyThe Start Of The "Silly Season" For GrainWe got one week of corn under $5 last week, that did not last long, corn closed at $6.37 and I don’t know why. There have been canceled export orders from not only China, but now Mexico as well. Mexico has added Brazil to their supplier list. The current crop is 81 % planted and all indications are for a bumper crop. We will begin the silly season where the market will change just on a weather forecast. Until we can move corn lower, we will continue with inflated protein markets. Looking at soy oil and we are about as low as I’ve see...2023-05-2603 minMarket Trends with TracyCorn Hits Under $6Corn closed at $5.89. Down from last week's $6.21, and the first time under $6 since November 2021. China canceled several more loads of corn contributing to the decline. Additionally, china is buying corn for the first time from South Africa. An expected big crop this year, reduced demand for export and we could be seeing much lower corn prices once we get into new crop. The new crop is 65% planted now and moving along. Things are looking good on the corn front. Soy oil is moving lower again, and these commodities could really help reduce overall inflation as they are an essential ingre...2023-05-1903 minMarket Trends with TracyWings for Memorial Day?Reduced harvest numbers continue for beef, about 5% lower than last year. Beef pricing is elevated and will most likely stay that way. Wings will be the item for Memorial Day as they continue lower. Tenders remain the premium item in chicken. Only one new case reported this week for Avian Flu. Pork bellies are down $10 from last week and production is up. Smoked or grilled pork is also a great option for Memorial Day. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook2023-05-1203 minMarket Trends with TracyUp, Down, and Everything In BetweenChicken is interesting, a little of everything up down and in between. Tenders are still running a bit short and moving up again, boneless skinless random breasts are holding steady though I would not be surprised if the next move in breast meat is higher. Wings on the other hand, still moving lower. This week’s avian flu update and I have nothing to say. NO new cases reported for the last week. Best news in a long while. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram...2023-05-0504 minMarket Trends with TracyWill this be a $200 Pork Belly Summer?Last week’s harvest of 622K was up from the prior week of 613K but still well below what we would expect this time of year and a good 25 -30K head below last year. There is some consensus we will stay in this reduced production cycle well into summer which may make beef a luxury choice. The continuing “bargain” pricing in chicken and pork will be a drag on these moves higher, but only so much. Looking at next week, with pretty moderate demand, all segments are moving higher, middle meats, chuck, grinds especially, so I’m back to the advi...2023-04-2803 minMarket Trends with Tracy4/20 Sends Chicken Tenders Higher... ShockingChicken Tenders are leading the way higher, but it seems they are doing this all alone. Boneless Skinless random breasts and wings are both moving lower again. Production continues strong about the same pace we’ve seen for weeks now so product is readily available. Chicken continues to be a good value . Now onto avian flu and two good weeks are about all we could stand. This week we’ve seen our first large turkey operations report new cases. One in each North and South Dakota. For the week 8 new cases affecting 136K birds, moving our total birds lost...2023-04-2103 minMarket Trends with TracyBeef Prices Springing HigherSo we’ve been looking at this beef market expecting a spring increase based on better demand with spring. Retail demand has been pretty tepid, so beef producers are going to force this market higher by restraining supply. We’ve seen this over the past few weeks but they are serious now. Last week was a total of 603K head harvested, down from the previous week’s 651K head. This week is shaping up to be very close to the 603K head number which has got some buyers a bit uneasy and packers are pushing up prices quickly. Last week was th...2023-04-1404 minMarket Trends with TracyHappy Cows Just Produce More Milk, They Just DoIf you got the Legally Blonde reference, we appreciate you. With the markets closed for Good Friday these are the final numbers for the week and it is all down. Barrel is down 14, block is down 16 and butter is down 5. Spring Flush seems to be having an affect with additional milk coming to market. To define spring flush, happy cows produce more milk, and spring flush is when the dairy cow diet is moved from stored grain to grazing pastures. Happy cows. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media...2023-04-0704 minMarket Trends with TracyAs Usual, Menu PorkPork Belly closed yesterday at $91 up from last week at $82. Still, anything under $100 is bargain time. Same burdensome inventory is keeping pork a real protein value, whether it is bacon, loins, ribs, the only exception continue to be butts which continue to enjoy strong export demand. As usual I recommend to menu pork. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn2023-03-3103 minMarket Trends with TracyKey Proteins To Feature This SpringBeef harvest is holding pretty steady at 631K head down just a bit from last week at 634K head. Even with these restricted production numbers, pricing is pretty restrained as there is not big demand pushing this product out. I still think the overall tone of this market is moving higher but I think we have a week or two before the weather turns and we get some really nice weather to get people out and about and that will push up demand. Until then, this is pretty steady for at least the next week. The popu...2023-03-2404 minMarket Trends with TracyProfitable Move to Menu RibsBeef production is creeping up as we approach Spring. Middle meats are holding steady, but the next move will most likely be higher. Chucks and rounds should move lower, while thin cuts will steadily increase. Beef is not the bargain buy right now, but it should hold steady for a week or so. Chicken wings are on the decline again. Strong production numbers continue. Breasts and tenders continue to slowly rise. Nine new cases of Avian flu were reported last week affecting 19,000 birds, which brings the total to 58.6 million. Corn is up from last week, soy oil inched lower...2023-03-1703 minMarket Trends with TracyBeef Production Springs Slightly ForwardBeef harvest picks up from last week totally 629K head up from last week to 618K head. These production numbers are keeping the market tight. Though March is not stacking with strong demand as of yet and the recent rally we’ve seen with both bad weather and reduced production seems to have lost a bit of steam. I’ve not seen anything moving lower but the steady increases over the past couple weeks are cooling off. The last couple weeks my advice was buy now, waiting will cost you money. Though I do think the overall trend continues higher I...2023-03-1003 minMarket Trends with TracyWhen Production Slows, Beef Prices RiseBeef harvest dropped again last week to 618K compared to 627K the week prior. Beef processors or determined to keep this market tight and with production numbers like these they are being successful. I expect we will see these reduced harvest numbers right to the end of March. This is not a panic situation but as I said last week, buy beef now, waiting until next week will cost you more money. Every segment of the beef complex is moving higher, thin meats leading the way. Middle meats especially strip loins are on the way up, ribeyes and t...2023-03-0303 minMarket Trends with TracyDon't Delay the Beef BuyBeef production is dropping with intentions to tighten the supply. The winter storm moving through the Midwest has prices moving up daily. Don't overreact, but buy what you need now. Chicken prices seem to have stalled for a moment and production numbers are still very strong making chicken a great value. Not much is happening in corn, soy oil is moving up a bit, and there isn't much going on with wheat. Pork pricing is moving higher slightly, but pork remains a great value. Feature pork! Dairy is looking good, but spring could bring a new push in pricing. ...2023-02-2403 minMarket Trends with TracyIs Avian Flu Here To Stay?This week, 7 new reports affecting 17K birds putting the total birds so far at 58.4 million. There is continued discussion and opinion that avian flu will continue to affect domestic poultry through 2023 and could continue to be around every year. With the virus surviving the heat of summer and freezing winter it looks like this virus is not fading away. Those rosy outlooks for the second half of 2023? Yeah, I’m not buying. Now looking at chicken and the slow increase continues with pricing up on wings and randoms. Again, this market was so low we are just getting back to some n...2023-02-1703 minMarket Trends with TracyAre Tenderloins Really A Good Value?February is the lowest demand month for beef and usually we will see some of the lowest prices of the year. Harvest last week was a robust 659K head, up from the prior week of 646K head. This seems to be a bit strong production for February, I don’t see the demand supporting this. Something to certainly watch the next couple weeks. Ribeyes and Tenderloins are doing their seasonal reductions and I think we might push this another week or two, especially if production numbers keep this high. Chuck, rounds, grinds all seem to be in neutral and at dec...2023-02-0303 minMarket Trends with TracyPoultry Shows Promise But "Flu Season" Is LoomingWings and random breasts are inching higher which is really a good thing. It is not healthy for the industry when suppliers are losing money on every bird they produce which has been the case. Production is pulling back just enough to push the market slowly higher. Chicken is still a great value so I would still be featuring chicken. The weekly doom and gloom of Avian flu report… 9 new reports over the last week, 304K birds affected. Total birds lost 58.2 million birds. We will be looking at the northern migration in a few weeks and this virus has never rea...2023-01-2703 minMarket Trends with TracyDairy Heats Up While Beef Begins To Stick to Tradition (Three Weeks Late)So this market is turning out like I expected, just about three weeks late. Ribeyes and tenderloins and giving ground, even though they are historically high for January they are heading in the right direction… down. Strip Loin and Short Loins are picking up that market pricing moving higher along with grinds. Chucks and rounds seem to be just churning steady right now. Production last week was back to non-holiday totals with 661K head harvested up from the holiday short week of 563K head the week prior. The next big beef holidays are Valentine’s day and St Patrick’s Day. W...2023-01-2003 minMarket Trends with TracyChicken Demand Starts To Match ProductionBeef is finally starting to look like I would expect a couple weeks ago. They didn’t move much, but I’ll take a move lower on ribeyes and tenderloins as a start. Finally. I think they have a long way to go in only a few short weeks before Valentine’s Day props up pricing again, but for right now, ribeyes and tenderloins are moving lower. Strips on the other hand are moving higher just as expected. Chucks have given up a bit of recent ground but I think only temporary. Rounds still showing pretty strength. The leaders up right now ar...2023-01-1303 minMarket Trends with TracyBeef Goes Against The Grain | Holiday Prices Holding OnThis time in January we should be seeing substantial discounting on ribeyes and tenderloins. Not seeing any movement lower. The premium holiday items are holding onto all those gains in December. With the discounting on those middle meats we traditionally see increases on chuck, rounds strips and especially ground beef. We are seeing those traditional seasonal increases. With a total harvest of 547K head last week, down from the prior week’s 566K and this week will also be a holiday shortened work week sellers are showing they are confident they can move product at these reduced volumes. I’m still ho...2023-01-0603 minMarket Trends with TracyWe're Looking At An Expensive Start to 2023So arctic temperatures and bad weather across the country took my expectations and just stomped on them. Holiday shortened beef production was 566K head down from the previous full week of 629K head. We have another week of two weeks of shortened work weeks which will be making product tight over the next couple weeks. Already those anticipated drops in Tenderloins and ribeyes are not happening. I’m going to push them out a couple weeks in expectation. I still think we have some down side here, just not as soon as I anticipated. On the other side, loins, rounds...2022-12-3003 minMarket Trends with TracyChicken Holds At Historic LowsThanks for joining me today, three days before Christmas and nine days to a new year. Let’s start with looking at beef this week. Beef production last week was down to 629 thousand head harvested compared to the previous week 652 head. Production will be holiday shortened even more the next couple weeks and I do expect January to start out at lower weekly slaughter levels. Next week is it for high prices on ribeyes and tenderloins, squeeze out as much profit as possible before the big down turn come January. Expect steady increase now on strip loins, chucks, round...2022-12-2303 minMarket Trends with TracyPrime Time For PorkLooking at pork, and bellies had a roller coaster week up and down but as of yesterday, back down to close at $84.58 up from last week at $80.49. At these levels the only questions is how much to buy, not if to buy. The rest of the pork complex is similarly low and offering great value. I often say pork is a value protein to offer and it is so true right now. Episode Sources:https://www.urnerbarry.com/https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reportsht...2022-12-1603 minMarket Trends with TracyHow Low Can You Go | Chicken Continues LowerChicken's been a bargain for several weeks and to my surprise, we were not at the bottom of this market. Wings moving lower again. This is not a healthy market. Packers losing money on every bird they sell but I don’t see this turning just yet. There are deals to be had on chicken, breasts, tender, wings. Packers just need to keep the meat moving. Production is lowering but only slightly, not enough to make a real difference just yet. Now to the weekly avian flu update. 19 new reports affecting 323K birds, almost all turkeys. Total birds lost...2022-12-0903 minMarket Trends with Tracy8 Million Turkeys and 40 Million Egg Laying ChickensAvian Flu continues to plague the poultry industry. For the last week, 15 new reports affecting 1.9 million birds. Total birds removed from the food supply this year: 52.4 million, and we are not done. As the southern migration continues bird flu is now being reported in Mexico, Peru, Ecuador, and Colombia. The CEO of Hormel, Jim Snee, which owns Jennie O turkey expects bird flu to affect supply into the second half of 2023 – no relief anytime soon. Episode Sources:https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/swine-reportshttps://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?loc...2022-12-0204 minMarket Trends with TracyWhat Will Even Out First? Chicken Prices or Egg Prices?The focus is on turkey for next week. There are turkeys to sell, but the price is pretty stiff. Avian Flu has hit turkey hard this year and unlike to previous outbreak in 2015 this one is not over yet. The avian flu numbers for the week, are relatively modest with 9 new reports affecting 50K birds. Total birds affected so far this year, 50.3 million. While turkeys were hit very hard, chicken down the southern seaboard were relatively virus free and there is way too much chicken on the market right now. For the second week in a row eggs sets are be...2022-11-1804 minMarket Trends with Tracy50.3 Million BirdsThis beef market is moving up pretty aggressively and with production holding up pretty strong with 668K head harvested last week, down only 5K from the week before it seems to me a bit early. Next week everyone is talking turkey. Grading is not great, with premium products at premium prices and short on the market. Select grade and commodity choice product are showing much more available. I think we are in a few more weeks of increasing markets so if you need product, buying sooner is better than waiting. The chuck complex and grinds are leading the way up in...2022-11-1103 minMarket Trends with TracyChicken Holds Course While Beef Heats UpBeef production was 673K head for last week up 13K head over the 660K head from the week prior. Liquidating continues in some breeding stock which will be affecting production over the next couple years as the herd size is reduced. With expensive feed and drought moving animals to harvest instead of continuing to feed them is often the decision. Even with heavy production this market is moving higher. Chuck Rolls are oversold and demanding strong premiums. The rest of the chuck complex is moving higher as well. Rounds seem to be pretty well balanced and with ground beef are h...2022-10-2804 minMarket Trends with TracyThis Is What You Call A Collapse | Chicken Prices PlummetThe Chicken market is what I’d almost call a collapse. Production is continuing strong, demand is not. Egg placements continue to inch up each week. The hatch rate is inching up too putting more chickens on the market. Wings, breast, tenders are all down again for next week. Take advantage of these low prices but this is not a healthy level for the producers. Now the weekly bird flu numbers. 18 new reports since last week. Total birds removed from the food chain 168K, mostly turkeys. total so far for the year, 47.7 million head. Turkey shortages will be with us well int...2022-10-2103 minMarket Trends with TracyChicken Prices Fall FurtherBeef production was 664,000 head for last week, same as the week prior. Chucks and rounds have found some support with pricing more up a bit. Roast weather is coming soon and retail feature will be pulling on these items. Chicken is declining again. I thought we might be close to the bottom but apparently we have a bit farther to go. Wings are down, breast and tenders down as well. We are getting to the unhealthy lows where the packers lose money on every bird that is not an incentive to keep producing. I’ve seen lower markets...2022-10-1403 minMarket Trends with TracyGreat Time to Feature Beef, Chicken and PorkBeef prices continue to move lower, but probably not for too much longer. Other than tenderloins, it's a great time to feature beef. Looking at poultry, chicken wings are still a great value, while breasts and tenders continue to go lower. As with beef, it's a great time to feature chicken. Avian flu continues to spread, totaling 421,000 birds removed since last week. This brings the total number of birds removed from the food supply to 47.1 million. Most new cases are turkeys, making this holiday season pretty tight with supply. For grains, corn is down from last week, soy oil...2022-10-0703 min
Market Trends with TracyNothing Encouraging To Say About Turkey | Episode 100!Happy Episode 100! This year’s avian flu continues to spread. Since last week add 14 new reports affecting 249K birds, most of them turkeys and a total so far of 46.7 million birds removed from the food supply. Southern migration of wild birds from Canada going south continues to spread the virus. We may well see cases continue to expand through the fall. I’ve nothing encouraging to say about turkey other than if you have, value it, and if you can buy it, do. Looking at chicken and it is the same message the last couple weeks. Wi...2022-09-3006 minMarket Trends with TracyBird Flu Might Be Here To StayThis year’s avian flu outbreak just won’t let up. With the southern migration in full swing it seems cases are picking up again. This week, 14 new reports of bird flu affecting 265K birds, mostly turkeys bringing the total birds lost since the beginning of the year to 45.1 million. Learn more on our website, Savalfoods.comFind us on Social Media:InstagramFacebookYouTubeTwitterLinkedInSaval Foodservice is proudly celebrating 90 years in business in 2022....2022-09-2303 min