Shows
Navigating the VortexThe 78th UN General Assembly High-Level Week: Spotlight on Ukraine and Sustainable Development GoalsThis morning, the High-Level week of the 78th session of the United Nations General Assembly gets under way in New York. This is the annual gathering of the heads of state and government of most of the UN’s member states. Notably absent this year, however, are four of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council—Russia, China, and France are not sending their presidents, and neither is the UK prime minister attending.What will the main focus be for the General Assembly?Two items will likely dominate the 78th UN General Assembly High...2023-09-1906 min
Navigating the VortexOther BRICS in a new Chinese wallThe 15th BRICS Summit, held in South Africa from the 22nd to the 24th of August was predictably underwhelming in its lack of concrete outcomes. The BRICS, even after the addition of six new members next year, will be anything but an alternative or rival to the G7. For all the talk about multipolarity, the BRICS, and their expansion, contribute further to the consolidation of a new bipolar order with just two rival blocs—led respectively by the US and China. It remains to be seen, however, whether dislike of a US-dominated order is enough to sustain the current lu...2023-08-2818 min
Navigating the VortexWhat next for Russia: Fragility, Fallout, and Shifting DynamicsIn this emergency episode of the "Navigating the Vortex," podcast and provide a detailed analysis of Prigozhin’s fast march to Moscow, the role of key players, and the potential consequences, and opportunities, for the region and the world. Lucy and Stefan delve into the many facets of the aftermath: the implications for the war in Ukraine, the changing power dynamics inside and outside Russia, and the kaleidoscope of players, from the African nations to multinational boardrooms, and from Washington DC and New Delhi to Beijing. Get full access to Na...2023-06-2541 min
Navigating the VortexKeeping an eye on the fundamentalsTwo reports out this week — the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects and the OECD’s Global Economic Outlook — paint a picture of slow growth and incremental recovery threatened by persisting economic, political, and environmental risks. Both reports emphasise the importance of sound macro-economic policy, including addressing inflation, responsible debt management, and structural policy reforms that enhance productivity and can sustain longer-term growth.What it’s about: The prospects of global economic growth remain bleak. Both the World Bank and the OECD project very moderate growth across all regions for 2023 and 2024. The projections are not identical in the last d...2023-06-1212 min
Navigating the VortexSummitry continued: the EU and Central Asia, BRICS and Friends, and the European Political CommunityLast week saw another three summits in quick succession: the foreign ministers of the BRICS countries met in Cape Town, South Africa; the European Political Community met at Mimi Castle in Bulboaca, Moldova, and the Heads of State of Central Asia and the President of the European Council came together in Cholpon-Ata, Kyrgyzstan. None of the meetings produced much in terms of concrete outcomes, but even as mere talking shops they are indicative of geopolitical and geoeconomic flux and uncertainty.What it’s about: The foreign ministers of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa — collectively also know...2023-06-0511 min
Navigating the VortexThe Debt Ceiling, Summitry, and Corporate Governance in Japan...or just follow the moneyJoin hosts Lucy Marcus and Stefan Wolff for a deep dive into some of the most pressing issues of today and tomorrow.In this episode of Navigating the Vortex, Lucy and Stefan talk through the continuing impact of the potential US default; the regional and global summits that tell us about China's growing influence in Central Asia, Ukraine's diplomatic efforts, G7 concerns regarding China; and how money is the glue that ties the threat of default by the US government, the recent banking sector crisis, and Japanese corporate governance together.Too late to avoid the...2023-05-3019 min
Navigating the VortexMoving on from Ukraine? China-West relations between Xi'an and HiroshimaFour weeks ago, on 26 April 2023, Presidents Xi and Zelensky spoke on the phone for the first time since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February last year. This was an important first step in the direction of at least some cooperation between China and the West to work together on ending the war in Ukraine. But progress in this direction has been slow, and fighting in Ukraine has further intensified since. As China and the West have continued to shore up their respective alliances, Ukraine remains a major divisive issue but one that is becoming more and more a si...2023-05-2215 min
Navigating the VortexBlack Swan Events & Business Resilience: Insights from Ukrainian Companies amid WarThe McKinsey report Survival through purpose: How Ukrainian businesses endured amid extreme uncertainty offers fascinating insights on how Ukrainian companies were affected by Russia’s invasion in February 2022 and how they responded to the extreme challenges that this created. While specific to Ukraine, some of the observations in the report led us to consider the broader implications of war, and similarly rare but extreme events, on public and private sector companies — and the importance of planning and thinking on your feet.What it’s about: More than a year into the war in Ukraine, McKinsey surveyed 122 Ukrainian compan...2023-05-1509 min
Navigating the VortexItalian Corporate Governance, Global Impact of a US Debt Default, Sudan to Ukraine, and EurovisionJoin hosts Lucy Marcus and Stefan Wolff for a deep dive into some of the most pressing issues of today and tomorrow.In this episode of Navigating the Vortex, Lucy and Stefan discuss Italy, corporate governance, the energy sector, multinational companies, politics, the debt ceiling, the OSCE, NATO, Sudan, Ukraine, Russia, and, of course, Eurovision.Italy's Enel AGM and the Shakespearean drama of corporate governanceAGM season continues and Lucy and Stefan do a bit of a deep dive on one Italian company that brings together politics, energy, power, leadership, governance, money and...2023-05-1128 min
Navigating the VortexBoardroom Accountability, Afghanistan, Northern Ireland, and the Role of Business in StabilityJoin hosts Lucy Marcus and Stefan Wolff for a deep dive into some of the most pressing issues of today and tomorrow. In this episode of "Navigating the Vortex," Lucy and Stefan discuss the ongoing crisis in Afghanistan, the impact of Brexit on Northern Ireland, the escalating conflict in Sudan, and the role that business and investment can play in promoting political stability. They also touch on the impending Ukrainian counteroffensive and the impact of the conflict on corporations, with knock-on economic and supply issues that are reaching beyond the region and into boardrooms around...2023-04-2517 min
Navigating the VortexThe future of Afghanistan hangs in the balanceOne of the stories that we have followed for some time is the circumstances in Afghanistan. The situation of the UN mission, UNAMA, has become ever more precarious and its ability to improve the humanitarian and economic situation of ordinary Afghans has been seriously impeded. Within that context, it was intriguing to see China’s foreign ministry release a position paper on Afghanistan.What’s it about: On 12 April, the Chinese foreign ministry issued a position paper on Afghanistan. Four of its eleven points deal with the threat of terrorism and narcotics that Afghanistan poses, indicating the serio...2023-04-2107 min
Navigating the VortexGlobal Challenges in a Fragmented WorldIn this first episode of the Navigating the Vortex podcast, hosts Lucy Marcus and Stefan Wolff introduce themselves and the premise of their podcast, which is to have insightful and thought-provoking conversations with guests about current events and big ideas. They discuss their backgrounds and expertise and how discussions around their kitchen table led them to create this podcast. The hosts also review their recent columns, which focused on geopolitical risks and their impact on economic growth, global trade flows, foreign direct investment, and technological advancement. They examine why geopolitical risks are so important and how they...2023-04-2011 min
Navigating the VortexMitigating the risks of geopolitical fragmentation: regulation, oversight, and good corporate governanceTwo reports released by the International Monetary Fund — on global financial stability and the world economic outlook — echo findings from an earlier report from the World Bank about the weak prospects for sustainable economic growth. Like the World Bank report (which we covered here, asking “Is Global Growth Doomed?”), the IMF points to geopolitical risks as a major driver of suppressed growth potential. While the IMF is sceptical about reversing the trend of geopolitical fragmentation anytime soon, it emphasises the importance of risk monitoring and strengthening oversight to improve the resilience of banks.What it’s about: The IMF’s...2023-04-1206 min
Navigating the VortexEurope-China relations: still just muddling through?One of the stories we have been following in the past couple of days is the trip by French president, Emmanuel Macron, and European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, to Beijing. Not much seems to have changed in the relationship or in either side’s attitude, but this is by no means a bad thing at a time when communication is often the first victim of intensifying geopolitical and geoeconomic rivalry.What it’s about: The not-so-joint visit by Macron and von der Leyen to China just before Easter produced no concrete political outcomes and few econ...2023-04-0904 min
Navigating the VortexIs Global Growth Doomed?One of the stories we have been following is a new report by the World Bank, published at the end of March, which paints a gloomy picture of the prospects of sustained global growth.
What it's about: World Bank researchers investigated the drivers of global growth and found that almost all of them have weakened and are unlikely to recover before the end of the decade; and even then only if national governments individually and collectively adopt pro-growth policies, especially "a major investment push grounded in robust macroeconomic frameworks".
Why it matters: According to the report, slow growth limits...2023-04-0503 min