Shows
TopTradersUnplugged.comTTU149: Risk, Return, Repeat: The Portable Alpha Revival ft. Razvan Remsing & Alan DunneToday, we’re diving into the world of portable alpha and how it can really shake up your investment game. Alan Dunn and I are chatting with Razvan Remsing from Aspect Capital, who shares that this concept isn’t new but is gaining traction again as allocators look for ways to make their portfolios work harder. With everything going on in the markets, it’s essential to think about how different strategies can fit together, especially in a world where traditional asset allocations might not cut it anymore. We’ll explore the benefits of a multi-asset approach and how CTAs can play...
2025-04-091h 09
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI342: From Trend Following to Super Determinism ft. Richard BrennanTogether with Richard Brennan, we’ll explore how current market uncertainties are shaping investor sentiment and prompting a massive shift in how we think about financial systems. As we navigate through some heavy topics, we also touch on the importance of maintaining a disciplined approach in a world where noise can easily drown out the signals. Expect insights on the evolving landscape of trading, where we emphasize the necessity of aligning with processes rather than predictions. Join us as we unpack these ideas and their implications for both our trading philosophy and our understanding of the market dynamics at play.
IT...
2025-04-051h 15
TopTradersUnplugged.comUGO01: Reflexive Markets, Real-Time Risk: The Dawn of the 0DTE Era ft. Mike GreenIn the premiere of U Got Options, Cem Karsan is joined by Mike Green for an unfiltered, high-conviction conversation straight from the floor of the Cboe. Together, they dive deep into the explosive growth of 0DTE options - now driving over 60% of S&P volume - and unpack how this shift is quietly rewiring market reflexivity, volatility dynamics, and the path of dispersion. With stories from the pits and sharp macro takeaways, this episode sets the tone for a series that goes beyond the headlines to decode the real forces shaping today’s markets. Raw. Insightful. Essential.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most...
2025-04-021h 04
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI341: Nothing Good Happens Below the 200-Day Moving Average ft. Mark RzepczynskiAlan Dunne and Mark Rzepczynski tackle the current market vibes, focusing on how factors like the 200-day moving average can shift market sentiment and affect portfolio strategies. As they navigate through the choppy waters of market performance, they discuss the importance of understanding uncertainty versus risk and how it impacts decision-making for both individual investors and managers alike. There’s also an exploration of how curiosity plays a crucial role for fund managers in adapting to ever-changing market dynamics. Join us for an insightful discussion on making sense of today's investment landscape.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year...
2025-03-291h 01
TopTradersUnplugged.comIL36: Democracy, Money, and the Central Bank - A Risky Balance ft. Leah Rose DowneyOur guest on this episode is Leah Downey, Junior Research Fellow at St. John’s College Cambridge and author of the new book Our Money: Monetary Policy as If Democracy Matters. Independent central banks are thought to be necessary to prevent politicians using monetary policy to influence elections and to avoid dangerously high levels of inflation. Is this really correct? Is it really healthy for a democracy to allocate so much power to a very small group of unelected people? Why is monetary policy considered ‘too complicated’ for politicians when equally complex areas like energy and defence are not? Is more u...
2025-03-2659 min
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI340: ETFs, Size, and the Commodity Problem ft. Alan DunneIn today’s episode, Alan Dunne and I take a step back - and a step forward - by exploring 125 years of hard-earned market wisdom, courtesy of the Global Investment Returns Yearbook, the definitive source of long-term asset class performance. What does this rich dataset tell us about equities, bonds, diversification, and the underrated role of patience in investing? And how relevant are these lessons for investors navigating today’s high-concentration markets, stubborn inflation, and the potential cracks in the classic 60/40 portfolio?
But that’s not all - we also dive into one of the most overlooked challenges facing systematic trend...
2025-03-221h 05
TopTradersUnplugged.comTTU148: CTAs - The Good, The Bad, and The Misunderstood ft. Rob Carver, Graham Robertson and Yoav GitToday, we’re diving deep into the world of CTAs and their role in investment portfolios. We discuss the balance between focusing on a single asset class versus a multi-asset approach, emphasizing that different asset classes offer unique utilities to investors. Our guests share insights from their experiences, highlighting the importance of tailored execution strategies and how technology can enhance trading performance. We also explore the growing interest from major players like Fidelity and BlackRock in trend-following strategies, raising questions about the future of CTAs in institutional portfolios. Join us as we unpack these themes and share our thoughts on th...
2025-03-191h 09
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI339: CTAs vs ETFs: The Showdown That Could Change Everything ft. Andrew Beer and Tom WrobelAndrew Beer and Tom Wrobel joins us to talk about the current state of global markets and the pivotal changes affecting our industry. We’re all feeling the shift in dynamics, and we’re here to unpack how that impacts our investing approaches. From the rise of new ETFs to the ongoing debate about the future of managed futures, we’ll cover it all. So grab your headphones and get ready for some straight talk on trends, volatility, and what it means for all of us as investors.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of t...
2025-03-151h 19
TopTradersUnplugged.comALO29: What Every Investor Should Know About Valuations ft. David GirouxLeveraged loans combined with treasuries create a solid strategy for navigating today’s fixed income market. These two asset classes work like a peanut butter and jelly sandwich, balancing each other out—leveraged loans shine when interest rates rise, while treasuries thrive when rates drop. In our chat today with David Giroux, portfolio manager at T. Rowe Price, we dive into how this mix helps manage risk and enhance returns in uncertain market conditions. Giroux shares his insights on the current investment landscape, emphasizing the importance of evaluating management quality and capital allocation strategies. Join us as we unpack these idea...
2025-03-121h 01
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI338: Politics, Markets & Power Plays: An Unfiltered Look ft. Cem KarsanTogether with Cem Karsan, we take a serious look at how the shifting political landscape and economic pressures are impacting global markets. We discuss the implications of a potential (engineered) recession and what it means for various asset classes, especially in relation to current U.S. policies. With the conversation turning to Europe, we analyze the region's military rearmament and its potential effects on the global balance of power. We also touch on the evolving dynamics regarding Turkey's economic challenges and geopolitical significance. Buckle up for a straightforward discussion filled with insights and practical implications for investors navigating this complex...
2025-03-061h 08
TopTradersUnplugged.comGM80: Doomsday Clock Ticks: Are We Close to a Monetary Shift? ft. Adam RozencwajgToday Cem Karsan and I are diving into a pretty intense topic today: the looming potential for a monetary regime change that feels like it's right around the corner. We're talking to Adam Rozencwajg about how the shifts in global commodity dynamics, particularly in natural resources like oil and gas, are becoming a lot clearer as supply constraints tighten up. It's all about recognizing the signs, and we believe that the next six to nine months will be crucial for investors looking to ride this wave. We’re also throwing around some serious thoughts on how geopolitical factors are impacting th...
2025-03-051h 19
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI337: How Best to "Replicate" Managed Futures Returns ft. Katy KaminskiIn this episode, Katy Kaminski helps us explore the latest trends in managed futures and how different approaches to replication can impact performance and correlation. We explore the pros and cons of index versus mechanical replication, highlighting how each method reacts differently in various market conditions. Plus, we touch on the most recent developments in the ETF space and how they're reshaping access to CTAs, but also question if all of the new products are truly worthy of the "CTA" lable. Stick around as we break down these ideas and share insights that can help shape your investment strategies.
IT's...
2025-02-271h 03
TopTradersUnplugged.comIL35: The New Age of Economic Warfare: Are We Ready? ft. Edward FishmanOur guest on this episode is Edward Fishman, a world expert on the modern art of economic warfare. Edward is author of the new book Chokepoints: American Power In The Age of Economic Warfare. He currently teaches at Columbia University and prior to that advised the US Secretary of State, Joints Chiefs of Staff and Treasury Department on the deployment of economic sanctions. We discuss the details of how the US uses its dominant position in the world’s financial markets and technology software to pressure countries like Iran, Russia and China. Most importantly this episode explains why these tools us...
2025-02-261h 01
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI336: How to Invest in Turbulent Times? ft. Graham RobertsonWith global market dynamics shifting rapidly and geopolitical noise reaching new heights, how can investors adapt and thrive? In this episode, we explore why an adaptive approach is crucial for navigating today’s turbulent financial landscape. Our conversation delves into the challenges investors face when competing against dominant market players and how trend-following strategies can shine in times of crisis. We also examine the often-overlooked disconnect between price and value - and how this mismatch might actually present fresh opportunities. Join us for an insightful discussion with Graham Robertson from Man AHL, as we unpack these critical insights and explore wh...
2025-02-221h 02
TopTradersUnplugged.comOI14: Behind the Scenes of a Crypto Hedge Fund ft. Michael Hall & Anatoly CrachlilovIn this episode, Moritz Seibert speaks with Anatoly Crachilov and Michaell Hall from Nickel Digital, a prominent London-based crypto hedge fund. Anatoly (CEO) and Michael (CIO) founded the company in 2019 with an initial focus on in-house arbitrage and basis trading strategies. Over the years, their business model has evolved and adapted to the fast-changing world of digital assets. Today, Nickel Digital operates as a multi-strategy, multi-manager setup with more than $250 million in AUM, making it one of the largest and longest-standing crypto hedge funds globally.
Anatoly, Michael and Moritz speak about the opportunities and challenges of operating a multi-PM digital...
2025-02-191h 07
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI335: Trend Following or Mean Reversion: What Works Best When? ft. Rob CarverJoin us for a fascinating and in-depth conversation with Rob Carver, where we’ll discuss the current state of gold, the impact of rising borrowing costs on futures pricing, and how these elements intertwine with market trends. Along the way, we’ll tackle listener questions that challenge the status quo, digging into everything from fees in the hedge fund world to the implications of recent political shifts. It's a jam-packed session for anyone looking to get a clearer picture of the investment landscape today.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide t...
2025-02-151h 24
TopTradersUnplugged.comALO28: Why Hedge Funds Still Matter ft. Alexander de BruinIn this episode, Alexander de Bruin, Head of Fund Research at Edmond de Rothschild, joins Alan Dunne to discuss the art and science of selecting managers and building portfolios of alternatives. Alexander shares insights from his background in convertible bond trading and how it has shaped his approach to allocating capital. The conversation explores the rapid growth of private markets, with a focus on the current opportunities in private credit. They also delve into Alexander's framework for constructing hedge fund portfolios, examining the role of multi-manager, multi-strategy funds compared to other diversifying strategies. Alexander provides a behind-the-scenes look at his...
2025-02-1259 min
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI334: Why Quants Might Be Your Best Bet ft. Nick BaltasTogether with Nick Baltas, we're diving deep into systematic investing to discuss why strategies like trend following is a hidden gem in the current (crazy) economic and geo-politica landscape. We’ll touch on recent trends, the implications of AI in investing, and how these dynamics can impact our portfolios. We also discuss the costs of rebalancing and the potential pitfalls when it comes to fixed-weight portfolios, how the trust in the financial system and economic data is starting to fade rapidly and much more. Stay tuned, there is a lot to unpack.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year...
2025-02-0858 min
TopTradersUnplugged.comALO27: Unlocking Wealth: Insights from UBS's CIO Mark HaefeleMark Haefele, CIO of Global Wealth Management at UBS, shares valuable insights on the evolving landscape of investing amidst unprecedented government intervention in the economy. He emphasizes that understanding the role of government spending and its impact on market dynamics is crucial for today's investors. The conversation explores the distinction between managing wealth and managing investments, highlighting the importance of adopting a mindset of abundance rather than scarcity. Haefele also explains the significance of long-term structural trends, such as demographics and digitalization, which shape investment decisions. Throughout the discussion, he offers practical advice for navigating the complexities of investing in...
2025-02-051h 02
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI333: Convexity - The Trend Following Game Changer! ft. Richard BrennanMost investors focus on returns, but what about the shape of those returns? Today, Rich and I explore the often overlooked concept of convexity - a game-changing principle in trend following that helps us thrive in unpredictable markets. Inspired by insights from our recent guest, Dave Dredge, we break down why mastering convexity is key to cutting losses early, riding big winners, and staying ahead of market turbulence.
If you’re serious about protecting and growing your portfoli - while making smarter, more systematic decisions - this episode is a must-listen. Join us for a deep dive into the mechanics of...
2025-02-021h 12
TopTradersUnplugged.comGM79: How Global Economic Dynamics Shape Our Future ft. Matthew KleinToday, we explore the intricate dynamics of global trade and economics, highlighting the central thesis of Matt Klein's book, "Trade Wars or Class Wars." Klein argues that the common perception of trade as a zero-sum game is fundamentally flawed; instead, he emphasizes that positive-sum solutions exist, benefiting all parties involved. The conversation explores the impact of internal dynamics within countries, particularly focusing on how these dynamics affect international relations and economic outcomes. Additionally, we discuss the current state of the global economy, rising bond yields, and the potential consequences of immigration policies on labor markets and housing. We invite listeners...
2025-01-291h 01
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI332: Market Turbulence: How to Adapt to Regime Changes ft. Alan Dunne & Mark RzepczynskiToday, we explore the complexities of current market dynamics, emphasizing the heightened levels of uncertainty stemming from recent regime changes. Mark Rzepczynski shares insights on how this uncertainty can influence investment behavior and market trends, highlighting the importance for investors to adapt their strategies in response to these shifts. The discussion touches on the implications of fluctuating correlations and volatility, particularly for systematic and trend-following strategies. We also explore how the intricate nature of financial markets as complex systems can lead to nonlinear reactions to shocks, making it crucial for traders to consider both measurable risks and the non-measurable uncertainties...
2025-01-251h 05
TopTradersUnplugged.comGM78: Is this 1995 all over again? ft. Dave Dredge & Cem KarsanToday, we take you into the complexities of the current financial landscape, emphasizing the crucial theme of positioning in an environment marked by rising interest rates and shifting market dynamics. We explore how recent structured product issuance is significantly impacting market structure, particularly in the U.S., where the volume of callable bonds and equity-linked products has surged. They highlight the risks associated with reliance on historical correlations, which may not hold in times of market stress, and the implications for investors navigating these turbulent waters. The conversation also touches on the potential for a significant monetary regime shift, akin...
2025-01-221h 31
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI331: Crafting the Perfect Investment Portfolio in 2025 ft. Alan DunneToday, we dive deep into the evolving landscape of investment strategies, emphasizing the critical need for diversification in portfolios. With a particular focus on the German economy's challenges, we highlight how geopolitical factors and shifting market dynamics are reshaping investment approaches. We explore the potential implications of rising bond yields and the importance of incorporating trend-following strategies to mitigate risks associated with traditional asset classes. We also touch on the necessity for investors to rethink their allocations to adapt to an uncertain future, moving beyond outdated correlations and assumptions. As we examine the perspectives of notable figures in finance, the...
2025-01-181h 05
TopTradersUnplugged.comOI13: The Art of Continuous Trading: Mastering Market Dynamics ft. Bill GebhardtBill Gebhardt from 10Dynamics discusses the intriguing intersection of market efficiency and systematic trading strategies. He emphasizes the idea that while traditional views suggest markets are efficient, many hedge funds continue to find success using price-based strategies that should theoretically not work. This paradox leads to a fascinating exploration of the psychological aspects of trading, particularly how human behavior can create opportunities for systematic traders. Gebhardt shares insights on the operational complexities of running a nearly continuous trading process, utilizing intraday data, and employing a diverse range of signals. The conversation explores the risks of underfitting versus overfitting in trading...
2025-01-1548 min
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI330: Yield Storm Ahead: Preparing for a New Era ft. Cem KarsanTogether with Cem Karsan we take the pulse of the evolving landscape investors are faced with amidst rising interest rates and market volatility. A key takeaway is the recognition of structural changes in bond markets, with the potential for significantly higher yields impacting investment strategies. We explore the implications of current geopolitical dynamics, including Trump's perhaps surprising approach to China, his expansionary agenda and how it may shape market expectations moving forward. We also address the challenges of navigating a world where traditional hedging strategies in markets like fixed income are becoming increasingly difficult. With insights into market sentiment and...
2025-01-111h 01
TopTradersUnplugged.comTTU147: How to Craft a Rich Life Beyond Money ft. William GreenWilliam Green, author of the book "Richer, Wiser, Happier", returns to the podcast for an eye opening conversation centered around the complexities of investing and the importance of building a rich life beyond mere financial success. We explore the idea that true wealth encompasses autonomy, meaningful relationships, and personal growth, rather than just monetary accumulation. Throughout the discussion, William shares lessons learned from interviewing some of the greatest investors, emphasizing the significance of self-awareness and understanding one’s biases in decision-making. We also touch on the current landscape of investing, including the dominance of U.S. equities and the implications of...
2025-01-081h 44
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI329: CTAs: Innovation Meets Legacy & the BlackRock Effect ft. Andrew Beer & Tom WrobelTogether with Andrew Beer and Tom Wrobel, we dive deep into the evolving landscape of managed futures and CTAs, highlighting the critical need for a narrative shift to better communicate their value to investors. Andrew and Tom discuss the challenges faced by allocators in understanding the unique benefits of trend-following strategies, especially amidst a backdrop of changing market dynamics. They explore the implications of BlackRock's recent move to launch an actively managed manager ETF, which could significantly impact how managed futures are perceived and allocated within investment portfolios. The conversation also touches on the potential for new ESG-compliant products that...
2025-01-041h 28
TopTradersUnplugged.comIL34: Democratizing Data: A New Approach for Trustworthy Information ft. Julia LaneOur guest on this episode is Dr. Julia Lane, Professor at New York University and author of the book Democratizing Our Data: A Manifesto. Dr. Lane is a member of the National AI Research Resource Task Force and has advised the White House on promoting the use of Federal data for evidence building. She believes that the US system collecting data is outdated, inaccurate and unable to reform itself. This includes the data that goes into measures like GDP and unemployment. The current system is also unable to track the impact of AI on the economy. We discuss her proposals...
2025-01-0142 min
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI328: Year-End Roundtable: The Future of Trend Following and Market Dynamics (Part 2)Join us for Part 2 of our Year-End discussion between all of the hosts on the Systematic Investor Series where we debate the trends and themes shaping the investment landscape heading into 2025. The episode highlights the significance of social media and podcasts in increasing awareness of systematic investment strategies, as well as the challenges posed by evolving market dynamics. Key topics include the role of the U.S. dollar under the new Trump administration, the impact of trend-following strategies, and the ongoing debate about replication in managed futures. We will also share our outrageous predictions for 2025, including insights into the potential...
2024-12-281h 06
TopTradersUnplugged.comOI12: Breaking Rules: Going Beyond Traditional Trend Following ft. Tillmann Sachs & Vishal SharmaIn this episode, Moritz Seibert speaks with Tillmann Sachs and Vishal Sharma from J8 Capital Management, a systematic London-based CTA. The main focus of their discussion is J8’s Global Absolute Return Strategy, which trades several different systems across markets and styles, including carry, arbitrage, and trend following. We also speak about their latest addition to this portfolio, namely the Redwood strategy, which is a short-term model trading some of the world’s most liquid futures markets and works with intraday data that’s sampled every 3 minutes. It’s an interesting conversation with a CTA “plus” – a term Tillmann uses as they employ...
2024-12-2551 min
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI327: 2024's Biggest Investment & Trend Following Insights (Part 1)This part 1 of 2 episode features a compelling roundtable discussion among all of our incredible co-hosts here at TopTradersUnplugged, where we reflect on the key takeaways of 2024. The main focus is on the significant return dispersion observed in the trend-following community throughout 2024, where performance varied dramatically among managers. We explore the factors contributing to this dispersion, such as differences in speed, market universe, and the impact of discretionary de-risking strategies. Additionally, we examine the influence of macroeconomic changes, particularly the effects of Federal Reserve policies, on market trends and investor behavior. As the conversation unfolds, we also share insights and personal...
2024-12-2158 min
TopTradersUnplugged.comGM77: Unlocking the Roaring 2020s: Is Bitcoin the New Gold? ft. Ed YardeniEd Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to review his Roaring 2020s thesis for the US economy. Ed makes a compelling case for sustained economic growth, driven by rising productivity gains fuelled by technological advancements. The discussion covers expectations for the policy mix under the incoming Trump administration, including how fiscal developments could influence the Federal Reserve's actions. The conversation also examines developments in the bond markets, exploring whether meaningful deficit reductions can keep the bond vigilantes at bay. He shares his optimistic outlook on the stock market, despite elevated valuations, high concentration in the...
2024-12-1859 min
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI326: Volatility and Trends: What 2024 Held for Trend Followers ft. Katy KaminskiToday, we examine the intriguing dynamics of systematic investing, focusing on the theme of volatility sizing and its implications for trend following strategies. We discuss how volatility often expands during profitable trades, highlighting the importance of managing risk through dynamic sizing compared to static approaches. We explore the interplay between equities and managed futures, emphasizing how these strategies can complement each other while navigating the complexities of correlation risk. As we look ahead to 2025, the conversation touches on broader economic themes, including inflation volatility and its potential impact on investment strategies. With insights from recent research, the episode provides valuable...
2024-12-141h 00
TopTradersUnplugged.comGM76: Are We Being Deceived by Economic Data? ft. Paul DonovanAlan Dunne welcomes Paul Donovan, Chief Economist of UBS Global Wealth Management, to this episode for a thought-provoking discussion on the global economic outlook. Together, they explore the structural challenges facing Europe and whether the current wave of pessimism is overstated. Paul highlights how data mismeasurement contributes to the gap between perception and reality while acknowledging the hurdles for productivity growth in Europe. They also consider whether comparisons between Europe’s economic trajectory and Japan’s stagnation are valid and discuss the prospects for U.S. growth under President Trump. The conversation also examines the recent inflation cycle, the potential effe...
2024-12-111h 04
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI325: Why Adaptive Strategies Matter Now More Than Ever ft. Graham RobertsonToday, together with Graham Robertson of MAN AHL, we delve into the intriguing dynamics of trend following and its relationship with current market conditions, particularly influenced by central bank actions. We examine how trend followers have navigated recent volatility and the challenges posed by fluctuating interest rate expectations. We highlight the significance of understanding correlation trends among different asset classes and the importance of diversifying strategies in enhancing portfolio resilience. The discussion also touches on the complexities of trend following strategies and the necessity for clearer communication to investors about their benefits. As we explore the evolving landscape of systematic...
2024-12-071h 02
TopTradersUnplugged.comIL33: The Soul of Wealth: Behavioral Secrets to a Purposeful Life ft. Daniel CrosbyOur guest on this episode is Dr. Daniel Crosby, New York Times bestselling author and Chief Behavioral Officer at Orion Advisor Solutions. Daniel joins us to discuss his new book - The Soul of Wealth: 50 Reflections on Money and Meaning. We discuss simple actions everyone can take to apply the lessons of behavioral finance to their own investing - actions that have a shockingly large impact on wealth accumulation. Daniel talks about why even the most experienced professional investors might benefit from having a financial advisor and how new research on willpower can help us be more effective investors. We...
2024-12-0455 min
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI324: Embracing Uncertainty using Adaptive Models ft. Richard BrennanToday, we dive deep into the complex dynamics of global markets and the often overlooked risks that can accumulate during periods of apparent stability. Together with Richard Brennan, we discuss the rising concerns over declining fertility rates worldwide, highlighting how economic pressures, environmental challenges, and cultural shifts contribute to this seismic change. We draw parallels between these demographic trends and the unpredictability of financial markets, emphasizing the importance of adaptive strategies in navigating uncertainty. The conversation also touches on the limitations of traditional risk management models, advocating for a shift towards frameworks that prioritize resilience and adaptability. In this episode...
2024-11-301h 09
TopTradersUnplugged.comGM75: Macro Mastery: The HedgeEye Approach ft. Keith McCulloughKeith McCullough, Founder and CEO of Hedgeye Risk Management, joins Alan Dunne in this episode for an in-depth look into Keith’s distinctive approach to global macro analysis and tactical trading. The conversation explores Keith’s background as a hedge fund manager and his views on how markets have evolved, especially in relation to option flows. Keith breaks down his four-quadrant framework for macro analysis, explaining how pinpointing the economy’s position within these quadrants is as much an art as it is a science. His framework currently signals continued strength in the US dollar and US equities. A fundamental aspect...
2024-11-271h 02
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI323: From Politics to Profits: How Regime Changes Affect Your Portfolio ft. Cem KarsanTogether with Cem Karsan we disect the current investment landscape, with a particular emphasis on the volatility and dispersion of market correlations as we approach the end of the year. We discuss how a compression of volatility at the index level can lead to increased idiosyncratic risk for individual stocks, creating opportunities for savvy investors. We explore the implications of regime shifts and how geopolitical factors, particularly related to the new U.S. administration, could influence market dynamics. The conversation also touches on the historical context of populism in politics and its potential impact on financial markets, suggesting that upcoming...
2024-11-231h 13
TopTradersUnplugged.comOI11: Avoiding the Herd: A Different Path to Alpha ft. Jerome CallutIn today’s episode Moritz Seibert is joined by Jerome Callut, one of the founders of DCM Systematic, a quantitative hedge fund based in Geneva, Switzerland. DCM Systematic aims to produce returns that are uncorrelated to trend following CTAs by pursuing a different path to alpha. In fact, the team around Jerome is very much focused on avoiding getting into trend following trades. Instead, they emphasize strategies which anticipate the flows of other traders and use several behavior-based models to distinguish themselves from the SG CTA index and other industry benchmarks. Jerome and Moritz speak discuss generic trade examples and Je...
2024-11-2057 min
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI322: Market Narratives and the Unpredictable Alpha ft. Mark RzepczynskiIn this episode, Mark Rzepczynski joins Alan Dunne to explore narratives, rationality, and behavioral uncertainty, particularly in the context of trend following. They discuss recent market trends in the wake of the election, with a focus on bond market movements. Mark shares insights on the current stage of the risk cycle and whether we’re witnessing an excessive buildup of leverage in the financial system. The conversation also delves into two fascinating studies: one on the significance of having access to the news and accurate information in trading, and another on how equity analysts forecast earnings—both with implications for tren...
2024-11-161h 07
TopTradersUnplugged.comIL32: Unpacking Inflation: What History Teaches Us About Today's Economy ft. Carola BinderToday we share an engaging discussion with Carola Binder, who explores the intricate relationship between inflation and democracy in the United States. Binder argues that inflation has been a crucial part of economic debate since the nation’s founding, intertwined with the political landscape and the fate of democracy itself. She highlights the significant divergence in inflation expectations between Republicans and Democrats, particularly during the Biden presidency, where rising inflation expectations were predominantly driven by Republicans. The conversation delves into how historical perspectives on inflation have shifted, from concerns about devaluation and price stability to modern debates on monetary policy an...
2024-11-1254 min
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI321: Post Election - Why Trends Matter More Than Ever ft. Alan DunneTogether with Alan Dunne, we delve into the shifting landscape of systematic investing, highlighting the growing use of quant based strategies as well as AI and machine learning in portfolio management. The discussion also emphasizes the significant impact of concentration within the S&P 500, with Goldman Sachs now predicting that this could lead to lower returns for traditional equity investments in the coming decade. We explore various economic themes, and note the challenges facing Europe compared to the optimism in the US markets. We also reflect on the recent elections and their implications for future economic policies. The conversation wraps...
2024-11-081h 02
TopTradersUnplugged.comTTU Global Macro Episode 74 - Stephen Miran & AlanStephen Miran, Senior Strategist at Hudson Bay Capital and Fellow at the Manhattan Institute joins Alan Dunne in this episode to explore the bond market outlook and broader economic trends. They delve into an influential paper Steve co-authored with Nouriel Roubini on Activist Treasury Issuance, examining how Treasury actions may have countered some of the Fed's monetary tightening this year. Steve shares his insights on the economy's current state, his view that the Fed may have erred with its recent 50 basis point cut, and how the upcoming election could shape economic policy. While much focus has been on potential tariff...
2024-11-061h 01
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI320: Bonds: The Voldemort of Asset Allocation ft. Andrew BeerIn this week’s episode, Andrew Beer joins Alan Dunne to dive into the evolution of hedge funds, mutual funds, and ETFs within the managed futures space. Andrew give his perspective on the architecture of the CTA industry from the perspective of asset raising and the role that a diverse investor base plays in shaping product offerings within the sector. The conversation explores how liquid alternative investments compare with traditional hedge funds, examining what recent performance trends reveal about each. They also discuss the influence of narrative in CTA selection and analyse the resurgence of portable alpha and the growing in...
2024-11-021h 04
TopTradersUnplugged.comGM73: Debt, Deficits, and the Road Ahead ft. Jason FurmanJason Furman, Professor of Economics at Harvard and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors under President Obama, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to share his thoughts on the current economic outlook. They explore the recent improvement in the inflation data, whether the Fed is justified in claiming victory in its inflation fight and the likely trajectory for inflation over the next year. On monetary policy, Jason expects further rate cuts from the Fed this year but is sceptical about how much additional easing we may see next year. That ‘s partially because he sees a higher neutral po...
2024-10-3059 min
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI319: The Surprising Factors Behind CTA Performance: Is Less More? ft. Rob CarverToday, we delve into the nuances of systematic investing with Rob Carver, focusing on the concept of replication in trend-following strategies. The discussion contrasts different approaches to replication, highlighting the potential pitfalls of return-based methods that attempt to mimic established indices. We emphasize that simply increasing the number of markets in a portfolio may not lead to better diversification, as it could ultimately expose investors to similar risk factors. We also explore the implications of a recent paper from Newfound Research, which uses random data to challenge traditional views on replication effectiveness. With insights on factors influencing CTA performance and...
2024-10-251h 21
TopTradersUnplugged.comOI10: The Untold Side of the Turtle Trading Legacy ft. Bill Eckhardt & Rob SorrentinoIn his first podcast episode ever, Bill Eckhardt emphasizes that successful trading hinges more on risk control than on predicting market movements, a theme that resonates throughout his conversation with Moritz Siebert and Rob Sorrentino. The episode explores Eckhardt's journey from the renowned Turtle trading experiment to his current systematic trading strategies at Eckhardt Trading Company. The conversation provides insights into the evolution of trading strategies, the importance of maintaining emotional discipline, and the necessity of adapting to changing market conditions. The discussion also delves into the challenges of overfitting in trading models and the significant role that robust statistical...
2024-10-231h 15
TopTradersUnplugged.comSi318: How Trend Following Changes with Interest Rates ft. Katy KaminskiJoin Katy and I as we delve into the intriguing dynamics of trend following in the context of changing interest rates. We cover how trend-following strategies can be a valuable addition to investment portfolios, especially in high-rate environments where traditional fixed income may offer diminished diversification benefits. Katy shares insights from her latest paper, which explores the performance of trend-following strategies during various economic crises, emphasizing the importance of adaptability in turbulent markets. The conversation also touches on the recent Nobel Prize buzz surrounding MIT and its implications for innovation in finance, as well as review the latest quarterly insights...
2024-10-191h 02
TopTradersUnplugged.comGM72: China's Market Rebound: From Chaos to Opportunity ft. Louis-Vincent GaveAlan Dunne welcomes back Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal in this episode to delve into the Chinese economic outlook and discuss the broader macro trends. Louis shares his thoughts on whether the Chinese economy and Chinese asset markets are truly at a turning point. They examine the crisis of confidence among Chinese consumers and assess whether recent stimulus measures can help. China’s active industrial policy and desire to grow its share of global manufacturing has been a key policy pillar and Louis examines how sustainable the policy is. The conversation also covers US policy, the prospects for a recession, and ho...
2024-10-161h 02
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI317: From Hurricanes to Hedge Strategies: The Hidden Common Factors ft. Richard BrennanThis episode dives deep into the intricacies of trend following strategies and their connection to complex adaptive systems. Richard Brennan and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen explore how these systems respond to market signals and the importance of boundaries in shaping investor behavior. They discuss the challenges faced by trend followers in the current market environment, particularly in October, where many strategies have encountered difficulties. The conversation touches on significant topics such as risk management, diversification, and the role of outliers in financial markets, emphasizing that these seemingly anomalous events are actually a natural part of the market's fabric. With insights drawn from...
2024-10-121h 08
TopTradersUnplugged.comIL31: What Your Cashless Future Will Look Like ft. Richard HoldenOur guest on this episode is Richard Holden, economics professor at the University of New South Wales Sydney author of a new book: Money in the 21st Century: Cheap, Mobile and Digital. Richard explains why the prospect of a private digital currency run by a company like Amazon or Google is a real possibility and why that would represent an enormous transfer of power from democratic governments to a private company. He also talks about China’s digital currency, its vast user base in China and how it even has users in Australia. Richard believes the US should proactively head of...
2024-10-0957 min
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI316: Solving the "How Much" Trend Following Question ft. Nick BaltasToday we tackle the most important questions arising from the evolving landscape of systematic investing, focusing on the changing dynamics of asset allocation in the current market environment. Nick Baltas and Niels discuss the implications of rising interest rates and inflation on traditional 60/40 portfolios, questioning whether this approach remains valid. We explore the potential benefits of incorporating trend-following strategies, especially in light of recent market volatility. The conversation includes insights on risk management and the importance of understanding correlation, particularly during downturns. With a blend of empirical analysis and practical advice, the episode touches on the key question of how...
2024-10-051h 07
TopTradersUnplugged.comALO26: Managing a C$600 Billion State Pension Fund ft. Amy FlikerskiAmy Flikerski, Head of External Portfolio Management at CPP Investments - the C$600bn Canadian state pension fund - joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss allocating capital to emerging and established hedge funds. They delve into the evolution of the hedge fund industry from the perspective of an allocator and particularly how the growth of the large multi-manager multi-strats has impacted hedge fund allocating. Amy discusses the role of the External Manager Allocations in the context of CPP Investment’s overall portfolio and some of the key considerations from a top down and bottom up perspective when the po...
2024-10-021h 03
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI315: Preparing for a Pivotal Time in Global Markets ft. Cem KarsanIn this week’s episode, Cem Karsan joins Alan Dunne to discuss the interplay between market flows and global macro developments as we enter a pivotal time of year for markets. They explore the potentially favourable setup for equities in the coming weeks, driven by flow dynamics and dealer positioning, while considering how recent policy moves in China could support the near-term bullish outlook. As the U.S. election approaches, Cem outlines how different outcomes could impact policy, the economy, and geopolitics—ultimately shaping the post-election market landscape. Despite recent U.S. inflation data showing lower prints, Karsan reaffirms his view...
2024-09-291h 04
TopTradersUnplugged.comGM71: The Carry Risk Lurking in Your Portfolio ft. Kevin ColdironIn this episode, I’m joined by Alan Dunne and Kevin Coldiron, a co-author of "The Rise of Carry", for an in-depth discussion on the recent unwinding of the Yen carry trade and a broader exploration of how carry trades are becoming more embedded in both our financial decisions and everyday lives. We revisit key insights Kevin took from his book, published in 2019, and explore where things have unfolded differently than anticipated. Kevin also breaks down how the S&P 500 might be central to the current carry regime and offers thoughts on how we could assess the risk of a ‘defl...
2024-09-251h 05
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI314: Algo Anxiety... Can AI Resolve This? ft. Mark RzepczynskiTogether with Mark Rzepczynski we dive deep into the outlook for trend following and discuss what may drive trends in the coming years. We analyze the role that the Fed plays in the rise of carry trading and we discuss how the so-called KuU framework can be used for in your strategy. We also discuss the use of AI when it comes to forecasting and building models and why systematic managers should be better at explaining what they do, how to use the 3 C’s to better understand markets, the pros and cons of buying an index and more.
IT's TR...
2024-09-211h 10
TopTradersUnplugged.comGM70: The State of the Commodity Super Cycle ft. Adam RozencwajgThis week you are in for a real treat, as Adam Rozencwajg rejoins Cem Karsan and me for a deep dive into the latest developments in the Commodity markets. It's been 15 months since Adam last appeared on the show, and he's back to share his updated perspectives on the highly anticipated next Commodity Super Cycle. Adam even unveils a fascinating and little-known fact about what often coincides with the start of a Super Cycle. We also take a closer look at key markets like Gold, Copper, and the entire Energy Complex—topics at the heart of debates surrounding the US Do...
2024-09-181h 19
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI313: The Paradox of High-Volatility Alternatives ft. Alan DunneIn this episode, Alan Dunne and I explore Mario Draghi's latest vision for Europe and discuss an insightful interview with Kenneth Rogoff, titled "We Will See More Spikes in Inflation," which covers key macroeconomic issues. We also explore the recent Goldman Sachs reports, highlighted by the Financial Times, showing significant outflows from multi-strategy funds. Alan shares his perspective on the current macro landscape and why he believes we may witness more “flash crashes and extreme market moves” in the near future. Finally, we dig into two articles by Cliff Asness—"The Less Efficient Market Hypothesis" and "In Praise of High-Volatility Altern...
2024-09-141h 05
TopTradersUnplugged.comIL30: How To Evaluate True Macro Risk? ft. Philipp Carlsson-SzlezakOur guest on this episode is Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, the Global Chief Economist at BCG and author of a new book: Shocks, Crises and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk. He explains why it’s wrong to put focus on extreme “doom mongering” predictions - which often turn out to be false alarms. We discuss his intuitive framework for evaluating economic predictions and use it to evaluate the risk of inflation and debt in the coming years.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever writ...
2024-09-1158 min
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI312: Should You Just Buy a CTA Index? ft. Rob CarverRob Carver is back this week to discuss the importance of being able to detach yourself from the markets and taking “real” breaks from time to time and we also hear from Rob what it is like to let his systematic trading system run by itself whilst he enjoys a long summer holiday. We also discuss the underlying theory of macro momentum and how you can apply it to your own system, how he targets volatility in his portfolio and why Rob does not like using stop-losses to exit trades. We also touch on whether it’s a good idea for Tr...
2024-09-071h 14
TopTradersUnplugged.comGM69: The Global Economy from a Liquidity Perspective ft. Michael HowellMichael Howell, Managing Director of Crossborder Capital and Author of the Capital Wars Substack, returns in this episode to speak with Alan Dunne about the liquidity cycle’s influence on global markets. Michael outlines how he sees rising liquidity growth providing a favourable backdrop for risky assets and that the conventional narrative that the Fed has been tightening liquidity via quantitative tightening is misplaced. They discuss how the requirement to refinance $70 trillion in debt every year, and the prospect of double digit growth in debt, will inevitably lead to monetary inflation with profound implications for assets like gold and equities. In...
2024-09-041h 02
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI311: BREAKING: New CTA Index being revealed ft. Andrew BeerAs August comes to an end, we discuss this month of extremes for the trend-following community, marked by significant dispersion in performance and unusual price activity across multiple asset classes as well as the economy in general. We address the strengths and limitations of replication strategies and Andrew shares insights into how he thinks about appropriate correlations levels between the benchmark and the replication strategy. We discuss the challenges of the due diligence process in replication strategies including team size, why you should start allocating to managed futures and finally Andrew reveals an exciting world premiere that he and his...
2024-09-011h 00
TopTradersUnplugged.comGM68: Chief Strategist: “Most Scenarios Point to Recession” ft. Peter BerezinPeter Berezin Chief Strategist and Research Director at BCA Research returns in this episode to discuss with Alan Dunne why he believes the US economy will soon enter recession and the S&P 500 will fall as low as 3750. Peter highlights the leading indicators in the housing market, labour market and in manufacturing that suggest to him that the economy is on a weakening trend and why he expects the unemployment rate to rise from here. They discuss current equity valuations, the Mag 7 and why investors may be overly optimistic on AI - Peter believes his base case of a fall...
2024-08-281h 01
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI310: The Illusion of Backtests and True Drivers of Price ft. Richard BrennanTogether with Richard Brennan we address the high level of volatility we have experienced this month and what airplane turbulence can teach us about periods of volatility. We also discuss why backtesting can’t predict future performance and what can be done to achieve achieve more realistic expectations of future risk and returns. We then dive into how investor behaviour drives price movement and how trend followers play a role in this, and why it may still make sense to include highly correlated assets in your trend following portfolio and more.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get...
2024-08-241h 03
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI276: TTU YEAR-END Special Part 2In this second part of our TTU Year-End special, we continue our conversation by discussing the challenge of defining non-trend strategies and the criteria for a good backtest, whether trend followers can afford to stand still in terms of research. We also discuss what is next for fixed income trading and we present our outrageous predictions for 2024. Happy New Year from all of us at TopTradersUnplugged!
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here: www.toptradersunplugged.com/Ultimate
And you can get a fre...
2023-12-301h 12
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI227: Trend Following in an Uncertain World ft. Richard BrennanRichard Brennan joins us for a weekly conversation on Trend Following, where we reflect on the new TopTradersUnplugged mini series and how the beginning of 2023 has been so far. We also take questions from listeners regarding backtesting methods and how Richard uses backtesting to manage risk, rather than predict expected returns. Additionally, we discuss why trend followers should be more aware of uncertainty and outliers, why Richard is a tail hunter and why he compares it to surfing, how Richard deals with change and the importance of understanding the natural cycle of transitions and stable regimes, complex adaptive systems, why...
2023-01-211h 25
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI225: 2023...Another Great Year for Trend Following? (TTU Group Part 2)Today, the TopTradersUnplugged team get together for the second part of the year-end group conversation on trend following, leading up to the beginning of 2023. We discuss whether trading more markets is actually better for diversifying your portfolio and how to approach outliers, how fluctuations in interest rates affects volatility strategies and trend followers, both currently and historically. We also discuss whether artificial intelligence can be a viable tool for trading and whether liquidity is about to break, the outlook for 2023 and what the year might hold for trend followers and the economy, why you should expect the unexpected and much...
2022-12-311h 07
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI224: 2022 the Perfect Year for Trend Followers? (TTU Group Part 1)Today, the TopTradersUnplugged team get together for a group conversation on trend following and Volatility, leading up to the end of 2022. We discuss the possibility that the carry regime has ended and why 2022 was such a great year for trend following, why “the grind” has been so influential this year and why volatility strategies has been performing different than expected, and how CTAs performance compares to bonds. We also discuss how the volatility market is changing in the coming years and why you need to be active with your hedges, what the TTU team has learned from 2022 and why you have...
2022-12-241h 13
TopTradersUnplugged.comTTU120: Carry - The Good, the Bad and the Ugly ft. Kevin ColdironIn this episode, Niels and Rob is joined by Kevin Coldiron, co-author of the book “The Rise of Carry” and lecturer in Asset Management at UC Berkeley, to discuss the use of carry trading as a trading strategy, how it relates to volatility and risk, how carry trading creates market feedback effects, and how that is distinct from feedback created by other strategies, how it can play a role in financial bubbles, whether we are still in a carry regime or transitioning away from it and what comes after.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website: www...
2022-03-231h 06
TopTradersUnplugged.com173 Systematic Investor Series ft. Jerry, Moritz, Rob, Mark & Rich – January 2nd, 2022Today we continue our special Part 2 end-of-year episode featuring all co-hosts of the show, together at the same time, to discuss why you should be invested in numerous different markets, why more Trend Following firms should be trading single stocks, the optimum amount of systems to run at the same time, whether diversifying across markets or diversifying across systems is more important, some thoughts on positive skew, and defining outliers. We also review how 2021 went for each us, including our best and worst markets to trade, the lessons we learned, and the biggest surprises.
Check out our Global Macro series...
2022-01-021h 33
TopTradersUnplugged.comTTU119: The Secret to becoming Richer, Wiser, Happier ft. William GreenWhat if there was one or two things that, above all, the best investors of all time have in common? Would you be interested to know what this is? Our special guest today, William Green, has written about this in his new book, called ‘Richer, Wiser, Happier’, where he draws upon his past interviews with over forty of the most successful investors of all time, to find out some of the ingredients that made them stand out. These elite group include Sir John Templeton, Charlie Munger, Howard Marks, Jack Bogle, Ed Thorp, and Joel Greenblatt. Join us as we uncover what...
2022-01-021h 43
TopTradersUnplugged.com172 Systematic Investor Series ft. Jerry, Moritz, Rob, Mark & Rich – December 25th, 2021We have a special end-of-year episode for you today, featuring all of us together for the first same time, to discuss why we are so passionate about Trend Following, the case for being a Trend Following purist, how to stay perfectly diversified, the art & perils of hunting outliers, the outlook for Trend Following performance, when and how to manually override a trading system, how to stay prepared for unexpected volatility events, and how to know if adjustments to a trading system are going to result in improved performance.
Check out our Global Macro series here: www.toptradersunplugged.com/category/global-macro/
...
2021-12-281h 28
TopTradersUnplugged.comTTU118: TRILLIONS...The Passive Revolution ft. Robin WigglesworthPassive & quantitative investing has grown exponentially over the years, and is now responsible for trillions of dollars of investors’ capital. How has this affected the world of active money-management, and what does the rise of passive investing mean for the investment world overall? Well, it turns out that renown Financial Times global finance correspondent, Robin Wigglesworth, has a great new book out about passive investing called ‘Trillions’, and I couldn’t resist the temptation to invite him on to the show to talk about the book, and other subjects related to investing and trading. Enjoy this conversation as we cover how the...
2021-12-281h 37
TopTradersUnplugged.comTTU117 Strategic Risk Management ft. Cam Harvey & Rob CarverHow should you protect your portfolio against large losses, but without giving up its upside potential? To answer this question, and many more, I invited back professor of finance at Duke University, Campbell Harvey to the show. I also thought it would be fitting if Rob Carver, could also join us, considering Rob and Cam used to work together at Man AHL. Enjoy the show as we discuss how to navigate a crisis in the markets, and what to expect in terms of the global outlook for investing.
Thank you for listening and please welcome to the show, our guest...
2021-12-281h 18
TopTradersUnplugged.com171 Systematic Investor Series ft Hari Krishnan – December 20th, 2021Today we’re joined by special guest, Hari Krishnan, to discuss the advantages and drawbacks of machine learning-based trading strategies, successful funds that utilise a machine learning investment style, defining machine learning and comparing it with artificial intelligence, how Trend Following can best integrated with machine learning, the history of machine learning in the investment world, and we also answer some of your questions, such as how narrow down signals to suit a smaller trading account.
Check out our Global Macro series here: https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/category/global-macro/
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here: https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/re...
2021-12-201h 09
TopTradersUnplugged.com170 Systematic Investor Series ft. Rob Carver – December 12th, 2021We’re joined today by Rob Carver to discuss how to approach position-sizing and risk-per-trade, mean reversion trading strategies, how to invest in globally diversified systematic Trend Following CTAs, ‘buying the dip’ in the S&P 500, static and dynamic optimisation when trading smaller accounts, and the inclusion of more obscure markets into a Trend Following system.
Check out our Global Macro series here: https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/category/global-macro/
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here: https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best...
2021-12-131h 23
TopTradersUnplugged.com116 In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio ft. Professor Steve FoersterIf we could gather all of the famous investing pioneers from world history into one room and ask them to build the perfect portfolio, what would it look like? Well, Steve Foerster and his co-author (and previous guest on the show) Andrew Lo, set out to do just that, with their new book called 'In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio'. I thought I'd invite Steve onto the show to discuss his new book, go through some of the 'golden threads' of investing that he came across, his journey in the world of finance, and of course, get his opinion on...
2021-12-061h 06
TopTradersUnplugged.com169 Systematic Investor Series ft. Richard Brennan – December 5th, 2021Richard Brennan returns today to discuss the misconception of volatility as risk, thoughts on the various measures of risk, drawdowns as an opportunity ‘buy the dip’ in the Trend Following strategies, how Richard thinks about risk, the relationship between volatility and risk, and the differences between convergent and divergent traders.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here: www.speakpipe.com/ttuvoicemail
Check out our Global Macro series here: www.toptradersunplugged.com/category/global-macro/
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here: www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/m…ket-trends/
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CI...
2021-12-061h 10
TopTradersUnplugged.com168 Systematic Investor Series ft. Mark Rzepczynski – November 28th, 2021Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss how markets will react to the likely upcoming tapering policies of central banks around the world, how Trend Followers overcome uncertainty, the reasons for and against overriding trading models, the historically optimum balance between bonds, stocks, and Trend Following, how trading non-correlated assets usually results in profitable long-term performance, and why longer-term trading systems tend to achieve the highest percentage of winning trades.
Check out our Global Macro series here: https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/category/global-macro/
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here: https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO...
2021-11-291h 14
TopTradersUnplugged.com167 Systematic Investor Series ft. Jerry Parker – November 21st, 2021Jerry Parker joins us today to discuss trading single stocks while maintaining a systematic approach, the benefits of trading a fixed universe of assets, how investors naturally gravitate toward strategies with lesser returns and more risk, why you need volatility in order to gain maximum returns, what to do with dividends as a Trend Follower, and diversifying Trend Following models versus diversifying look-back periods.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here: https://www.speakpipe.com/ttuvoicemail
Check out our Global Macro series here: https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/category...
2021-11-221h 03
TopTradersUnplugged.com165 Systematic Investor Series ft Rob Carver – November 7th, 2021Rob Carver joins us today to discuss the perception of cryptocurrencies since the new Bitcoin futures ETF was launched, scaling into and out of positions, the possibility of a synthetic Bitcoin supply resulting from the new futures ETF, how to approach climate change and ESG investing as a Trend Follower, ideas for selecting which markets to trade, the benefits and drawbacks of trading single stocks, and how to embrace a creative mindset.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here: https://www.speakpipe.com/ttuvoicemail
Check out our Global...
2021-11-081h 25
TopTradersUnplugged.com164 Systematic Investor Series ft Richard Brennan – November 1st, 2021This week, Richard Brennan joins us on the show to discuss how people can benefit from the effects of compounding while others end up a paying a price for it. We also cover some thoughts on ‘path dependency,' why those invested in stocks should diversify using Trend Following strategies, why stable returns can only be correctly judged over long time periods, how to analyse fund performance without being influenced by the effects of compounding, some thoughts on what is known as ‘geometric returns’, and we explain the term ‘ergodicity’.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on th...
2021-11-011h 06
TopTradersUnplugged.com163 Systematic Investor Series ft Mark Rzepczynski – October 24th, 2021This week, Mark Rzepczynski joins us to discuss the Bitcoin ETF and the increasing likeliness that it won’t be banned by the US government, the need for money managers to convey good stories in order to simplify their processes to clients, why having a long track record of success, with one or two scars, is better than a perfect recent history, how Trend Following has been so successful over 6 decades, and how a non-secretive strategy like Trend Following compares to private equity strategies.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do...
2021-10-251h 19
TopTradersUnplugged.com162 Systematic Investor Series ft Moritz Seibert – October 17th, 2021We’re joined today by Moritz Seibert to answer some of the hardest questions in the Turtle Trader entrance exam, as well as discuss the new Bitcoin futures ETF, the drive towards ESG investments and how this affects global supply chains, the years’ top performers so far in our Trend Following systems, whether we can predict if a winning streak is about to end, why Bitcoin is often compared to gold, and whether crypto assets are more suited to shorter-term strategies.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here: http...
2021-10-181h 18
TopTradersUnplugged.com161 Systematic Investor Series ft Jerry Parker – October 10th, 2021Jerry Parker joins us for a very special episode today, where we invite him to answer the original interview questions from Richard Dennis’s famous Turtle Trader program. This is a fascinating insight into the world of Trend Following, and one which allows us to see whether Jerry has changed his opinions since working Richard Dennis, as well as explain some of his reasons for the answers he chose today.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here: https://www.speakpipe.com/ttuvoicemail
Check out our Global Macro series he...
2021-10-101h 01
TopTradersUnplugged.com160 Systematic Investor Series ft Rob Carver – October 3rd, 2021Rob Carver returns to the show today to discuss the differing performances among CTAs during the notable market moves of the last few weeks, how to decide whether one system is better or worse than another, spread betting as part of a diversified portfolio, raising initial capital when starting a new firm, some thoughts on the US debt ceiling, and how to safely improve your system while still adhering to its rules.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here: https://www.speakpipe.com/ttuvoicemail
Check out our Global...
2021-10-041h 04
TopTradersUnplugged.com159 Systematic Investor Series ft Richard Brennan – September 26th, 2021Richard Brennan joins us today to discuss the stabilising effect that a healthy allocation to Trend Following can have on a portfolio, how to achieve compounded wealth in the long-term with systematic investing, how Trend Following strategies can thrive in both crisis periods as well as good times, some thoughts on data distribution and ‘skewness’, how to effectively communicate the benefits of Trend Following to investors, and the art of ‘embracing uncertainty’ in order to maximise returns.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here: https://www.speakpipe.com/ttuvoice...
2021-09-261h 08
TopTradersUnplugged.com158 Systematic Investor Series ft Mark Rzepczynski – September 19th, 2021Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss why people are as important as processes when investors are choosing funds, the factors that can predict future performance of a fund manager, how Trend Following often performs best when markets are highly correlated, some thoughts on portfolio construction and the various ways to measure risk, the importance of having a strong narrative when communicating what you do to allocators, the infamous ‘bandwagon effect’ among investors, how current AUM can often affect an investors decision to choose a fund, how capital allocators can improve their due diligence with Trend Following funds, and why inve...
2021-09-201h 30
TopTradersUnplugged.com157 Systematic Investor Series ft Jerry Parker – September 13th, 2021Today we are joined by Jerry Parker to discuss how shorter-term systems can be more susceptible to market noise, the importance of sticking with your system during different market environments, how major investment firms have consistently performed well by keeping Trend Following in their portfolios, some insights into Jerry’s approach to backtesting, the drawbacks of being labelled as a CTA, Jerry’s bold prediction that Trend Following firms will be the most popular type of investment fund in the future, how trading smaller during bad periods can set you up for success during favourable conditions, ensuring protection against cyber atta...
2021-09-131h 06
TopTradersUnplugged.com156 Systematic Investor Series ft Moritz Seibert – September 6th, 2021Moritz Seibert joins us today to discuss the benefits of ‘system diversification’, the case for buying at all-time highs, how classical Trend Following is performing this year, the optimal amount of sample size for an effective backtest, the best ways to monitor risk levels, some tips for starting a new Trend Following business, some recommended backtesting software for retail traders, and how to navigate around your broker’s negative interest rates.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here: https://www.speakpipe.com/ttuvoicemail
Check out our Global Macro series...
2021-09-071h 05
TopTradersUnplugged.com155 Systematic Investor Series ft Richard Brennan – August 29th, 2021This week, Richard Brennan joins us to discuss whether there are any similarities between Trend Following and other investment approaches, the benefits of ‘forward-testing’ a system, the art of ‘hunting outliers’, what the optimum level of leverage could be, how much total portfolio ‘risk-to-stop’ to aim for, some thoughts on margin requirements, and which other strategy complements Trend Following the best. We also took a deep dive into backtesting, touching on topics such as: how much we can safely derive from a backtest, why a backtest with a smooth equity curve should raise alarm bells, a good checklist to use when creatin...
2021-08-291h 29
TopTradersUnplugged.com154 Systematic Investor Series ft Richard Brennan – August 22nd, 2021Richard Brennan joins us today to discuss the current global risk factors that could cause a large liquidity event, what the term ‘outlier’ really means from a Trend Follower’s perspective, the role of currencies in a Trend Following portfolio, the point at which diversification can end up diluting returns, whether different asset classes should be traded on different timeframes, some thoughts on pyramiding, and defining ‘non-linearity’ when discussing Trend Following models.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here: https://www.speakpipe.com/ttuvoicemail
Check out our Global Macro seri...
2021-08-231h 05
TopTradersUnplugged.com153 Systematic Investor Series ft Mark Rzepczynski – August 15th, 2021Mark Rzepczynski joins us on the show this week to discuss the importance of being aware of known and unknown risks, how economic data can contribute to a profitable system, how futures markets are some of the most liquid markets in the world, the need for a rules-based approach to the markets, how fundamental trends usually cause price trends, why making market predictions based on Federal Reserve announcements can be a bad idea, how the constant debasement of purchasing power has made passive investing difficult over the years, some famous quotes that can be applied to investing, and how to...
2021-08-151h 11
TopTradersUnplugged.com152 Systematic Investor Series ft Jerry Parker – August 8th, 2021Jerry Parker is on the show with us today to discuss Ethereum’s recent rise after a new ‘hard fork’, auto-correlation and its effects on Trend Following strategies, how trading extra markets can improve performance, drawdowns as a key to profiting from huge trends, how Trend Following firms who try to be too unique often end up underperforming, the power of pure Trend Following versus over-optimisation, why ESG investing should also take into account human rights issues, why you should love your trading rules but not your positions, and how trading in smaller sizes can lead to much bigger returns.
If you...
2021-08-081h 16
TopTradersUnplugged.com151 Systematic Investor Series ft Moritz Seibert – August 1st, 2021Today we’re joined by Moritz Seibert to discuss the efficacy of backtests, how to build a profitable spread trading model, Moritz’s addition of Ethereum futures to his portfolio, why commodities such as coal should still be traded, how to incorporate macro data into a systematic strategy, how to distinguish between long-term profitability and shorter-term luck, and the alternatives to Microsoft Excel for managing market data in a Trend Following system.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here: https://www.speakpipe.com/ttuvoicemail
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2021-08-011h 01
TopTradersUnplugged.com150 Systematic Investor Series ft Richard Brennan – July 25th, 2021This week, Richard Brennan from ATS Trading Solutions makes his debut on the show, and we discuss the complexity behind successful Trend Following strategies, momentum trading versus Trend Following, the importance of average win rate, how a weak edge can still lead to strong returns, deflationary environments and their past effects on the Trend Following models, which markets, and how many, to include in a profitable trading system, and how to find the perfect exit strategy with minimum risk.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here: https://www...
2021-07-251h 06
TopTradersUnplugged.com149 Systematic Investor Series ft Mark Rzepczynski – July 18th, 2021Mark Rzepczynski joins us this week to discuss ‘algorithm aversion’ and the science of how ‘model anxiety’ shows investors to be naturally wary of rules-based systems. We also discuss how to evaluate momentum data, how a busy week for market news can still be a quiet week for Trend Followers, the benefits of moving away from ‘peak complexity’ as soon as possible, why having too many filters can expose a trader to large opportunity costs, the optimal percentage amount of risk per trade, as well as portfolio construction versus signal generation and which is more important.
If you would like to leave us...
2021-07-181h 08
TopTradersUnplugged.com148 Systematic Investor Series ft Jerry Parker – July 11th, 2021Jerry Parker returns today to discuss why margin perhaps isn’t as important as people perceive it to be, the resurgence of ‘classical’ Trend Following, the importance of having a low Sharpe ratio, an update on Jerry’s Bitcoin positioning, the drawbacks of trading a single, longer-term timeframe, how European CTAs successfully compete with American CTAs, the best methods for measuring open risk, and why capturing the fewer large trends may be more important than the many small trends.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here: https://www.speakpip...
2021-07-111h 08