Shows
TopTradersUnplugged.comTTU149: Risk, Return, Repeat: The Portable Alpha Revival ft. Razvan Remsing & Alan DunneToday, we’re diving into the world of portable alpha and how it can really shake up your investment game. Alan Dunn and I are chatting with Razvan Remsing from Aspect Capital, who shares that this concept isn’t new but is gaining traction again as allocators look for ways to make their portfolios work harder. With everything going on in the markets, it’s essential to think about how different strategies can fit together, especially in a world where traditional asset allocations might not cut it anymore. We’ll explore the benefits of a multi-asset approach and how CTAs can play...
2025-04-091h 09
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI342: From Trend Following to Super Determinism ft. Richard BrennanTogether with Richard Brennan, we’ll explore how current market uncertainties are shaping investor sentiment and prompting a massive shift in how we think about financial systems. As we navigate through some heavy topics, we also touch on the importance of maintaining a disciplined approach in a world where noise can easily drown out the signals. Expect insights on the evolving landscape of trading, where we emphasize the necessity of aligning with processes rather than predictions. Join us as we unpack these ideas and their implications for both our trading philosophy and our understanding of the market dynamics at play.
IT...
2025-04-051h 15
TopTradersUnplugged.comUGO01: Reflexive Markets, Real-Time Risk: The Dawn of the 0DTE Era ft. Mike GreenIn the premiere of U Got Options, Cem Karsan is joined by Mike Green for an unfiltered, high-conviction conversation straight from the floor of the Cboe. Together, they dive deep into the explosive growth of 0DTE options - now driving over 60% of S&P volume - and unpack how this shift is quietly rewiring market reflexivity, volatility dynamics, and the path of dispersion. With stories from the pits and sharp macro takeaways, this episode sets the tone for a series that goes beyond the headlines to decode the real forces shaping today’s markets. Raw. Insightful. Essential.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most...
2025-04-021h 04
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI341: Nothing Good Happens Below the 200-Day Moving Average ft. Mark RzepczynskiAlan Dunne and Mark Rzepczynski tackle the current market vibes, focusing on how factors like the 200-day moving average can shift market sentiment and affect portfolio strategies. As they navigate through the choppy waters of market performance, they discuss the importance of understanding uncertainty versus risk and how it impacts decision-making for both individual investors and managers alike. There’s also an exploration of how curiosity plays a crucial role for fund managers in adapting to ever-changing market dynamics. Join us for an insightful discussion on making sense of today's investment landscape.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year...
2025-03-291h 01
TopTradersUnplugged.comIL36: Democracy, Money, and the Central Bank - A Risky Balance ft. Leah Rose DowneyOur guest on this episode is Leah Downey, Junior Research Fellow at St. John’s College Cambridge and author of the new book Our Money: Monetary Policy as If Democracy Matters. Independent central banks are thought to be necessary to prevent politicians using monetary policy to influence elections and to avoid dangerously high levels of inflation. Is this really correct? Is it really healthy for a democracy to allocate so much power to a very small group of unelected people? Why is monetary policy considered ‘too complicated’ for politicians when equally complex areas like energy and defence are not? Is more u...
2025-03-2659 min
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI340: ETFs, Size, and the Commodity Problem ft. Alan DunneIn today’s episode, Alan Dunne and I take a step back - and a step forward - by exploring 125 years of hard-earned market wisdom, courtesy of the Global Investment Returns Yearbook, the definitive source of long-term asset class performance. What does this rich dataset tell us about equities, bonds, diversification, and the underrated role of patience in investing? And how relevant are these lessons for investors navigating today’s high-concentration markets, stubborn inflation, and the potential cracks in the classic 60/40 portfolio?
But that’s not all - we also dive into one of the most overlooked challenges facing systematic trend...
2025-03-221h 05
TopTradersUnplugged.comTTU148: CTAs - The Good, The Bad, and The Misunderstood ft. Rob Carver, Graham Robertson and Yoav GitToday, we’re diving deep into the world of CTAs and their role in investment portfolios. We discuss the balance between focusing on a single asset class versus a multi-asset approach, emphasizing that different asset classes offer unique utilities to investors. Our guests share insights from their experiences, highlighting the importance of tailored execution strategies and how technology can enhance trading performance. We also explore the growing interest from major players like Fidelity and BlackRock in trend-following strategies, raising questions about the future of CTAs in institutional portfolios. Join us as we unpack these themes and share our thoughts on th...
2025-03-191h 09
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI339: CTAs vs ETFs: The Showdown That Could Change Everything ft. Andrew Beer and Tom WrobelAndrew Beer and Tom Wrobel joins us to talk about the current state of global markets and the pivotal changes affecting our industry. We’re all feeling the shift in dynamics, and we’re here to unpack how that impacts our investing approaches. From the rise of new ETFs to the ongoing debate about the future of managed futures, we’ll cover it all. So grab your headphones and get ready for some straight talk on trends, volatility, and what it means for all of us as investors.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of t...
2025-03-151h 19
TopTradersUnplugged.comALO29: What Every Investor Should Know About Valuations ft. David GirouxLeveraged loans combined with treasuries create a solid strategy for navigating today’s fixed income market. These two asset classes work like a peanut butter and jelly sandwich, balancing each other out—leveraged loans shine when interest rates rise, while treasuries thrive when rates drop. In our chat today with David Giroux, portfolio manager at T. Rowe Price, we dive into how this mix helps manage risk and enhance returns in uncertain market conditions. Giroux shares his insights on the current investment landscape, emphasizing the importance of evaluating management quality and capital allocation strategies. Join us as we unpack these idea...
2025-03-121h 01
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI338: Politics, Markets & Power Plays: An Unfiltered Look ft. Cem KarsanTogether with Cem Karsan, we take a serious look at how the shifting political landscape and economic pressures are impacting global markets. We discuss the implications of a potential (engineered) recession and what it means for various asset classes, especially in relation to current U.S. policies. With the conversation turning to Europe, we analyze the region's military rearmament and its potential effects on the global balance of power. We also touch on the evolving dynamics regarding Turkey's economic challenges and geopolitical significance. Buckle up for a straightforward discussion filled with insights and practical implications for investors navigating this complex...
2025-03-061h 08
TopTradersUnplugged.comGM80: Doomsday Clock Ticks: Are We Close to a Monetary Shift? ft. Adam RozencwajgToday Cem Karsan and I are diving into a pretty intense topic today: the looming potential for a monetary regime change that feels like it's right around the corner. We're talking to Adam Rozencwajg about how the shifts in global commodity dynamics, particularly in natural resources like oil and gas, are becoming a lot clearer as supply constraints tighten up. It's all about recognizing the signs, and we believe that the next six to nine months will be crucial for investors looking to ride this wave. We’re also throwing around some serious thoughts on how geopolitical factors are impacting th...
2025-03-051h 19
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI337: How Best to "Replicate" Managed Futures Returns ft. Katy KaminskiIn this episode, Katy Kaminski helps us explore the latest trends in managed futures and how different approaches to replication can impact performance and correlation. We explore the pros and cons of index versus mechanical replication, highlighting how each method reacts differently in various market conditions. Plus, we touch on the most recent developments in the ETF space and how they're reshaping access to CTAs, but also question if all of the new products are truly worthy of the "CTA" lable. Stick around as we break down these ideas and share insights that can help shape your investment strategies.
IT's...
2025-02-271h 03
TopTradersUnplugged.comIL35: The New Age of Economic Warfare: Are We Ready? ft. Edward FishmanOur guest on this episode is Edward Fishman, a world expert on the modern art of economic warfare. Edward is author of the new book Chokepoints: American Power In The Age of Economic Warfare. He currently teaches at Columbia University and prior to that advised the US Secretary of State, Joints Chiefs of Staff and Treasury Department on the deployment of economic sanctions. We discuss the details of how the US uses its dominant position in the world’s financial markets and technology software to pressure countries like Iran, Russia and China. Most importantly this episode explains why these tools us...
2025-02-261h 01
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI336: How to Invest in Turbulent Times? ft. Graham RobertsonWith global market dynamics shifting rapidly and geopolitical noise reaching new heights, how can investors adapt and thrive? In this episode, we explore why an adaptive approach is crucial for navigating today’s turbulent financial landscape. Our conversation delves into the challenges investors face when competing against dominant market players and how trend-following strategies can shine in times of crisis. We also examine the often-overlooked disconnect between price and value - and how this mismatch might actually present fresh opportunities. Join us for an insightful discussion with Graham Robertson from Man AHL, as we unpack these critical insights and explore wh...
2025-02-221h 02
TopTradersUnplugged.comOI14: Behind the Scenes of a Crypto Hedge Fund ft. Michael Hall & Anatoly CrachlilovIn this episode, Moritz Seibert speaks with Anatoly Crachilov and Michaell Hall from Nickel Digital, a prominent London-based crypto hedge fund. Anatoly (CEO) and Michael (CIO) founded the company in 2019 with an initial focus on in-house arbitrage and basis trading strategies. Over the years, their business model has evolved and adapted to the fast-changing world of digital assets. Today, Nickel Digital operates as a multi-strategy, multi-manager setup with more than $250 million in AUM, making it one of the largest and longest-standing crypto hedge funds globally.
Anatoly, Michael and Moritz speak about the opportunities and challenges of operating a multi-PM digital...
2025-02-191h 07
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI335: Trend Following or Mean Reversion: What Works Best When? ft. Rob CarverJoin us for a fascinating and in-depth conversation with Rob Carver, where we’ll discuss the current state of gold, the impact of rising borrowing costs on futures pricing, and how these elements intertwine with market trends. Along the way, we’ll tackle listener questions that challenge the status quo, digging into everything from fees in the hedge fund world to the implications of recent political shifts. It's a jam-packed session for anyone looking to get a clearer picture of the investment landscape today.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide t...
2025-02-151h 24
TopTradersUnplugged.comALO28: Why Hedge Funds Still Matter ft. Alexander de BruinIn this episode, Alexander de Bruin, Head of Fund Research at Edmond de Rothschild, joins Alan Dunne to discuss the art and science of selecting managers and building portfolios of alternatives. Alexander shares insights from his background in convertible bond trading and how it has shaped his approach to allocating capital. The conversation explores the rapid growth of private markets, with a focus on the current opportunities in private credit. They also delve into Alexander's framework for constructing hedge fund portfolios, examining the role of multi-manager, multi-strategy funds compared to other diversifying strategies. Alexander provides a behind-the-scenes look at his...
2025-02-1259 min
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI334: Why Quants Might Be Your Best Bet ft. Nick BaltasTogether with Nick Baltas, we're diving deep into systematic investing to discuss why strategies like trend following is a hidden gem in the current (crazy) economic and geo-politica landscape. We’ll touch on recent trends, the implications of AI in investing, and how these dynamics can impact our portfolios. We also discuss the costs of rebalancing and the potential pitfalls when it comes to fixed-weight portfolios, how the trust in the financial system and economic data is starting to fade rapidly and much more. Stay tuned, there is a lot to unpack.
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year...
2025-02-0858 min
TopTradersUnplugged.comALO27: Unlocking Wealth: Insights from UBS's CIO Mark HaefeleMark Haefele, CIO of Global Wealth Management at UBS, shares valuable insights on the evolving landscape of investing amidst unprecedented government intervention in the economy. He emphasizes that understanding the role of government spending and its impact on market dynamics is crucial for today's investors. The conversation explores the distinction between managing wealth and managing investments, highlighting the importance of adopting a mindset of abundance rather than scarcity. Haefele also explains the significance of long-term structural trends, such as demographics and digitalization, which shape investment decisions. Throughout the discussion, he offers practical advice for navigating the complexities of investing in...
2025-02-051h 02
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI333: Convexity - The Trend Following Game Changer! ft. Richard BrennanMost investors focus on returns, but what about the shape of those returns? Today, Rich and I explore the often overlooked concept of convexity - a game-changing principle in trend following that helps us thrive in unpredictable markets. Inspired by insights from our recent guest, Dave Dredge, we break down why mastering convexity is key to cutting losses early, riding big winners, and staying ahead of market turbulence.
If you’re serious about protecting and growing your portfoli - while making smarter, more systematic decisions - this episode is a must-listen. Join us for a deep dive into the mechanics of...
2025-02-021h 12
TopTradersUnplugged.comGM79: How Global Economic Dynamics Shape Our Future ft. Matthew KleinToday, we explore the intricate dynamics of global trade and economics, highlighting the central thesis of Matt Klein's book, "Trade Wars or Class Wars." Klein argues that the common perception of trade as a zero-sum game is fundamentally flawed; instead, he emphasizes that positive-sum solutions exist, benefiting all parties involved. The conversation explores the impact of internal dynamics within countries, particularly focusing on how these dynamics affect international relations and economic outcomes. Additionally, we discuss the current state of the global economy, rising bond yields, and the potential consequences of immigration policies on labor markets and housing. We invite listeners...
2025-01-291h 01
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI332: Market Turbulence: How to Adapt to Regime Changes ft. Alan Dunne & Mark RzepczynskiToday, we explore the complexities of current market dynamics, emphasizing the heightened levels of uncertainty stemming from recent regime changes. Mark Rzepczynski shares insights on how this uncertainty can influence investment behavior and market trends, highlighting the importance for investors to adapt their strategies in response to these shifts. The discussion touches on the implications of fluctuating correlations and volatility, particularly for systematic and trend-following strategies. We also explore how the intricate nature of financial markets as complex systems can lead to nonlinear reactions to shocks, making it crucial for traders to consider both measurable risks and the non-measurable uncertainties...
2025-01-251h 05
TopTradersUnplugged.comGM78: Is this 1995 all over again? ft. Dave Dredge & Cem KarsanToday, we take you into the complexities of the current financial landscape, emphasizing the crucial theme of positioning in an environment marked by rising interest rates and shifting market dynamics. We explore how recent structured product issuance is significantly impacting market structure, particularly in the U.S., where the volume of callable bonds and equity-linked products has surged. They highlight the risks associated with reliance on historical correlations, which may not hold in times of market stress, and the implications for investors navigating these turbulent waters. The conversation also touches on the potential for a significant monetary regime shift, akin...
2025-01-221h 31
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI331: Crafting the Perfect Investment Portfolio in 2025 ft. Alan DunneToday, we dive deep into the evolving landscape of investment strategies, emphasizing the critical need for diversification in portfolios. With a particular focus on the German economy's challenges, we highlight how geopolitical factors and shifting market dynamics are reshaping investment approaches. We explore the potential implications of rising bond yields and the importance of incorporating trend-following strategies to mitigate risks associated with traditional asset classes. We also touch on the necessity for investors to rethink their allocations to adapt to an uncertain future, moving beyond outdated correlations and assumptions. As we examine the perspectives of notable figures in finance, the...
2025-01-181h 05
TopTradersUnplugged.comOI13: The Art of Continuous Trading: Mastering Market Dynamics ft. Bill GebhardtBill Gebhardt from 10Dynamics discusses the intriguing intersection of market efficiency and systematic trading strategies. He emphasizes the idea that while traditional views suggest markets are efficient, many hedge funds continue to find success using price-based strategies that should theoretically not work. This paradox leads to a fascinating exploration of the psychological aspects of trading, particularly how human behavior can create opportunities for systematic traders. Gebhardt shares insights on the operational complexities of running a nearly continuous trading process, utilizing intraday data, and employing a diverse range of signals. The conversation explores the risks of underfitting versus overfitting in trading...
2025-01-1548 min
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI330: Yield Storm Ahead: Preparing for a New Era ft. Cem KarsanTogether with Cem Karsan we take the pulse of the evolving landscape investors are faced with amidst rising interest rates and market volatility. A key takeaway is the recognition of structural changes in bond markets, with the potential for significantly higher yields impacting investment strategies. We explore the implications of current geopolitical dynamics, including Trump's perhaps surprising approach to China, his expansionary agenda and how it may shape market expectations moving forward. We also address the challenges of navigating a world where traditional hedging strategies in markets like fixed income are becoming increasingly difficult. With insights into market sentiment and...
2025-01-111h 01
TopTradersUnplugged.comTTU147: How to Craft a Rich Life Beyond Money ft. William GreenWilliam Green, author of the book "Richer, Wiser, Happier", returns to the podcast for an eye opening conversation centered around the complexities of investing and the importance of building a rich life beyond mere financial success. We explore the idea that true wealth encompasses autonomy, meaningful relationships, and personal growth, rather than just monetary accumulation. Throughout the discussion, William shares lessons learned from interviewing some of the greatest investors, emphasizing the significance of self-awareness and understanding one’s biases in decision-making. We also touch on the current landscape of investing, including the dominance of U.S. equities and the implications of...
2025-01-081h 44
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI329: CTAs: Innovation Meets Legacy & the BlackRock Effect ft. Andrew Beer & Tom WrobelTogether with Andrew Beer and Tom Wrobel, we dive deep into the evolving landscape of managed futures and CTAs, highlighting the critical need for a narrative shift to better communicate their value to investors. Andrew and Tom discuss the challenges faced by allocators in understanding the unique benefits of trend-following strategies, especially amidst a backdrop of changing market dynamics. They explore the implications of BlackRock's recent move to launch an actively managed manager ETF, which could significantly impact how managed futures are perceived and allocated within investment portfolios. The conversation also touches on the potential for new ESG-compliant products that...
2025-01-041h 28
TopTradersUnplugged.comIL34: Democratizing Data: A New Approach for Trustworthy Information ft. Julia LaneOur guest on this episode is Dr. Julia Lane, Professor at New York University and author of the book Democratizing Our Data: A Manifesto. Dr. Lane is a member of the National AI Research Resource Task Force and has advised the White House on promoting the use of Federal data for evidence building. She believes that the US system collecting data is outdated, inaccurate and unable to reform itself. This includes the data that goes into measures like GDP and unemployment. The current system is also unable to track the impact of AI on the economy. We discuss her proposals...
2025-01-0142 min
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI328: Year-End Roundtable: The Future of Trend Following and Market Dynamics (Part 2)Join us for Part 2 of our Year-End discussion between all of the hosts on the Systematic Investor Series where we debate the trends and themes shaping the investment landscape heading into 2025. The episode highlights the significance of social media and podcasts in increasing awareness of systematic investment strategies, as well as the challenges posed by evolving market dynamics. Key topics include the role of the U.S. dollar under the new Trump administration, the impact of trend-following strategies, and the ongoing debate about replication in managed futures. We will also share our outrageous predictions for 2025, including insights into the potential...
2024-12-281h 06
TopTradersUnplugged.comOI12: Breaking Rules: Going Beyond Traditional Trend Following ft. Tillmann Sachs & Vishal SharmaIn this episode, Moritz Seibert speaks with Tillmann Sachs and Vishal Sharma from J8 Capital Management, a systematic London-based CTA. The main focus of their discussion is J8’s Global Absolute Return Strategy, which trades several different systems across markets and styles, including carry, arbitrage, and trend following. We also speak about their latest addition to this portfolio, namely the Redwood strategy, which is a short-term model trading some of the world’s most liquid futures markets and works with intraday data that’s sampled every 3 minutes. It’s an interesting conversation with a CTA “plus” – a term Tillmann uses as they employ...
2024-12-2551 min
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI327: 2024's Biggest Investment & Trend Following Insights (Part 1)This part 1 of 2 episode features a compelling roundtable discussion among all of our incredible co-hosts here at TopTradersUnplugged, where we reflect on the key takeaways of 2024. The main focus is on the significant return dispersion observed in the trend-following community throughout 2024, where performance varied dramatically among managers. We explore the factors contributing to this dispersion, such as differences in speed, market universe, and the impact of discretionary de-risking strategies. Additionally, we examine the influence of macroeconomic changes, particularly the effects of Federal Reserve policies, on market trends and investor behavior. As the conversation unfolds, we also share insights and personal...
2024-12-2158 min
TopTradersUnplugged.comGM77: Unlocking the Roaring 2020s: Is Bitcoin the New Gold? ft. Ed YardeniEd Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to review his Roaring 2020s thesis for the US economy. Ed makes a compelling case for sustained economic growth, driven by rising productivity gains fuelled by technological advancements. The discussion covers expectations for the policy mix under the incoming Trump administration, including how fiscal developments could influence the Federal Reserve's actions. The conversation also examines developments in the bond markets, exploring whether meaningful deficit reductions can keep the bond vigilantes at bay. He shares his optimistic outlook on the stock market, despite elevated valuations, high concentration in the...
2024-12-1859 min
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI326: Volatility and Trends: What 2024 Held for Trend Followers ft. Katy KaminskiToday, we examine the intriguing dynamics of systematic investing, focusing on the theme of volatility sizing and its implications for trend following strategies. We discuss how volatility often expands during profitable trades, highlighting the importance of managing risk through dynamic sizing compared to static approaches. We explore the interplay between equities and managed futures, emphasizing how these strategies can complement each other while navigating the complexities of correlation risk. As we look ahead to 2025, the conversation touches on broader economic themes, including inflation volatility and its potential impact on investment strategies. With insights from recent research, the episode provides valuable...
2024-12-141h 00
TopTradersUnplugged.comGM76: Are We Being Deceived by Economic Data? ft. Paul DonovanAlan Dunne welcomes Paul Donovan, Chief Economist of UBS Global Wealth Management, to this episode for a thought-provoking discussion on the global economic outlook. Together, they explore the structural challenges facing Europe and whether the current wave of pessimism is overstated. Paul highlights how data mismeasurement contributes to the gap between perception and reality while acknowledging the hurdles for productivity growth in Europe. They also consider whether comparisons between Europe’s economic trajectory and Japan’s stagnation are valid and discuss the prospects for U.S. growth under President Trump. The conversation also examines the recent inflation cycle, the potential effe...
2024-12-111h 04
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI325: Why Adaptive Strategies Matter Now More Than Ever ft. Graham RobertsonToday, together with Graham Robertson of MAN AHL, we delve into the intriguing dynamics of trend following and its relationship with current market conditions, particularly influenced by central bank actions. We examine how trend followers have navigated recent volatility and the challenges posed by fluctuating interest rate expectations. We highlight the significance of understanding correlation trends among different asset classes and the importance of diversifying strategies in enhancing portfolio resilience. The discussion also touches on the complexities of trend following strategies and the necessity for clearer communication to investors about their benefits. As we explore the evolving landscape of systematic...
2024-12-071h 02
TopTradersUnplugged.comIL33: The Soul of Wealth: Behavioral Secrets to a Purposeful Life ft. Daniel CrosbyOur guest on this episode is Dr. Daniel Crosby, New York Times bestselling author and Chief Behavioral Officer at Orion Advisor Solutions. Daniel joins us to discuss his new book - The Soul of Wealth: 50 Reflections on Money and Meaning. We discuss simple actions everyone can take to apply the lessons of behavioral finance to their own investing - actions that have a shockingly large impact on wealth accumulation. Daniel talks about why even the most experienced professional investors might benefit from having a financial advisor and how new research on willpower can help us be more effective investors. We...
2024-12-0455 min
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI324: Embracing Uncertainty using Adaptive Models ft. Richard BrennanToday, we dive deep into the complex dynamics of global markets and the often overlooked risks that can accumulate during periods of apparent stability. Together with Richard Brennan, we discuss the rising concerns over declining fertility rates worldwide, highlighting how economic pressures, environmental challenges, and cultural shifts contribute to this seismic change. We draw parallels between these demographic trends and the unpredictability of financial markets, emphasizing the importance of adaptive strategies in navigating uncertainty. The conversation also touches on the limitations of traditional risk management models, advocating for a shift towards frameworks that prioritize resilience and adaptability. In this episode...
2024-11-301h 09
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI276: TTU YEAR-END Special Part 2In this second part of our TTU Year-End special, we continue our conversation by discussing the challenge of defining non-trend strategies and the criteria for a good backtest, whether trend followers can afford to stand still in terms of research. We also discuss what is next for fixed income trading and we present our outrageous predictions for 2024. Happy New Year from all of us at TopTradersUnplugged!
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here: www.toptradersunplugged.com/Ultimate
And you can get a fre...
2023-12-301h 12
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI227: Trend Following in an Uncertain World ft. Richard BrennanRichard Brennan joins us for a weekly conversation on Trend Following, where we reflect on the new TopTradersUnplugged mini series and how the beginning of 2023 has been so far. We also take questions from listeners regarding backtesting methods and how Richard uses backtesting to manage risk, rather than predict expected returns. Additionally, we discuss why trend followers should be more aware of uncertainty and outliers, why Richard is a tail hunter and why he compares it to surfing, how Richard deals with change and the importance of understanding the natural cycle of transitions and stable regimes, complex adaptive systems, why...
2023-01-211h 25
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI225: 2023...Another Great Year for Trend Following? (TTU Group Part 2)Today, the TopTradersUnplugged team get together for the second part of the year-end group conversation on trend following, leading up to the beginning of 2023. We discuss whether trading more markets is actually better for diversifying your portfolio and how to approach outliers, how fluctuations in interest rates affects volatility strategies and trend followers, both currently and historically. We also discuss whether artificial intelligence can be a viable tool for trading and whether liquidity is about to break, the outlook for 2023 and what the year might hold for trend followers and the economy, why you should expect the unexpected and much...
2022-12-311h 07
TopTradersUnplugged.comSI224: 2022 the Perfect Year for Trend Followers? (TTU Group Part 1)Today, the TopTradersUnplugged team get together for a group conversation on trend following and Volatility, leading up to the end of 2022. We discuss the possibility that the carry regime has ended and why 2022 was such a great year for trend following, why “the grind” has been so influential this year and why volatility strategies has been performing different than expected, and how CTAs performance compares to bonds. We also discuss how the volatility market is changing in the coming years and why you need to be active with your hedges, what the TTU team has learned from 2022 and why you have...
2022-12-241h 13
TopTradersUnplugged.comTTU120: Carry - The Good, the Bad and the Ugly ft. Kevin ColdironIn this episode, Niels and Rob is joined by Kevin Coldiron, co-author of the book “The Rise of Carry” and lecturer in Asset Management at UC Berkeley, to discuss the use of carry trading as a trading strategy, how it relates to volatility and risk, how carry trading creates market feedback effects, and how that is distinct from feedback created by other strategies, how it can play a role in financial bubbles, whether we are still in a carry regime or transitioning away from it and what comes after.
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website: www...
2022-03-231h 06
TopTradersUnplugged.com173 Systematic Investor Series ft. Jerry, Moritz, Rob, Mark & Rich – January 2nd, 2022Today we continue our special Part 2 end-of-year episode featuring all co-hosts of the show, together at the same time, to discuss why you should be invested in numerous different markets, why more Trend Following firms should be trading single stocks, the optimum amount of systems to run at the same time, whether diversifying across markets or diversifying across systems is more important, some thoughts on positive skew, and defining outliers. We also review how 2021 went for each us, including our best and worst markets to trade, the lessons we learned, and the biggest surprises.
Check out our Global Macro series...
2022-01-021h 33
TopTradersUnplugged.comTTU119: The Secret to becoming Richer, Wiser, Happier ft. William GreenWhat if there was one or two things that, above all, the best investors of all time have in common? Would you be interested to know what this is? Our special guest today, William Green, has written about this in his new book, called ‘Richer, Wiser, Happier’, where he draws upon his past interviews with over forty of the most successful investors of all time, to find out some of the ingredients that made them stand out. These elite group include Sir John Templeton, Charlie Munger, Howard Marks, Jack Bogle, Ed Thorp, and Joel Greenblatt. Join us as we uncover what...
2022-01-021h 43
TopTradersUnplugged.com172 Systematic Investor Series ft. Jerry, Moritz, Rob, Mark & Rich – December 25th, 2021We have a special end-of-year episode for you today, featuring all of us together for the first same time, to discuss why we are so passionate about Trend Following, the case for being a Trend Following purist, how to stay perfectly diversified, the art & perils of hunting outliers, the outlook for Trend Following performance, when and how to manually override a trading system, how to stay prepared for unexpected volatility events, and how to know if adjustments to a trading system are going to result in improved performance.
Check out our Global Macro series here: www.toptradersunplugged.com/category/global-macro/
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2021-12-281h 28
TopTradersUnplugged.comTTU118: TRILLIONS...The Passive Revolution ft. Robin WigglesworthPassive & quantitative investing has grown exponentially over the years, and is now responsible for trillions of dollars of investors’ capital. How has this affected the world of active money-management, and what does the rise of passive investing mean for the investment world overall? Well, it turns out that renown Financial Times global finance correspondent, Robin Wigglesworth, has a great new book out about passive investing called ‘Trillions’, and I couldn’t resist the temptation to invite him on to the show to talk about the book, and other subjects related to investing and trading. Enjoy this conversation as we cover how the...
2021-12-281h 37
TopTradersUnplugged.comTTU117 Strategic Risk Management ft. Cam Harvey & Rob CarverHow should you protect your portfolio against large losses, but without giving up its upside potential? To answer this question, and many more, I invited back professor of finance at Duke University, Campbell Harvey to the show. I also thought it would be fitting if Rob Carver, could also join us, considering Rob and Cam used to work together at Man AHL. Enjoy the show as we discuss how to navigate a crisis in the markets, and what to expect in terms of the global outlook for investing.
Thank you for listening and please welcome to the show, our guest...
2021-12-281h 18
TopTradersUnplugged.com171 Systematic Investor Series ft Hari Krishnan – December 20th, 2021Today we’re joined by special guest, Hari Krishnan, to discuss the advantages and drawbacks of machine learning-based trading strategies, successful funds that utilise a machine learning investment style, defining machine learning and comparing it with artificial intelligence, how Trend Following can best integrated with machine learning, the history of machine learning in the investment world, and we also answer some of your questions, such as how narrow down signals to suit a smaller trading account.
Check out our Global Macro series here: https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/category/global-macro/
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here: https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/re...
2021-12-201h 09
TopTradersUnplugged.com170 Systematic Investor Series ft. Rob Carver – December 12th, 2021We’re joined today by Rob Carver to discuss how to approach position-sizing and risk-per-trade, mean reversion trading strategies, how to invest in globally diversified systematic Trend Following CTAs, ‘buying the dip’ in the S&P 500, static and dynamic optimisation when trading smaller accounts, and the inclusion of more obscure markets into a Trend Following system.
Check out our Global Macro series here: https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/category/global-macro/
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here: https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO's read 50+ books each year - get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best...
2021-12-131h 23
TopTradersUnplugged.com116 In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio ft. Professor Steve FoersterIf we could gather all of the famous investing pioneers from world history into one room and ask them to build the perfect portfolio, what would it look like? Well, Steve Foerster and his co-author (and previous guest on the show) Andrew Lo, set out to do just that, with their new book called 'In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio'. I thought I'd invite Steve onto the show to discuss his new book, go through some of the 'golden threads' of investing that he came across, his journey in the world of finance, and of course, get his opinion on...
2021-12-061h 06
TopTradersUnplugged.com169 Systematic Investor Series ft. Richard Brennan – December 5th, 2021Richard Brennan returns today to discuss the misconception of volatility as risk, thoughts on the various measures of risk, drawdowns as an opportunity ‘buy the dip’ in the Trend Following strategies, how Richard thinks about risk, the relationship between volatility and risk, and the differences between convergent and divergent traders.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here: www.speakpipe.com/ttuvoicemail
Check out our Global Macro series here: www.toptradersunplugged.com/category/global-macro/
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here: www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/m…ket-trends/
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CI...
2021-12-061h 10
TopTradersUnplugged.com168 Systematic Investor Series ft. Mark Rzepczynski – November 28th, 2021Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss how markets will react to the likely upcoming tapering policies of central banks around the world, how Trend Followers overcome uncertainty, the reasons for and against overriding trading models, the historically optimum balance between bonds, stocks, and Trend Following, how trading non-correlated assets usually results in profitable long-term performance, and why longer-term trading systems tend to achieve the highest percentage of winning trades.
Check out our Global Macro series here: https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/category/global-macro/
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here: https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/
IT's TRUE 👀 - most CIO...
2021-11-291h 14
TopTradersUnplugged.com167 Systematic Investor Series ft. Jerry Parker – November 21st, 2021Jerry Parker joins us today to discuss trading single stocks while maintaining a systematic approach, the benefits of trading a fixed universe of assets, how investors naturally gravitate toward strategies with lesser returns and more risk, why you need volatility in order to gain maximum returns, what to do with dividends as a Trend Follower, and diversifying Trend Following models versus diversifying look-back periods.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here: https://www.speakpipe.com/ttuvoicemail
Check out our Global Macro series here: https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/category...
2021-11-221h 03
TopTradersUnplugged.com165 Systematic Investor Series ft Rob Carver – November 7th, 2021Rob Carver joins us today to discuss the perception of cryptocurrencies since the new Bitcoin futures ETF was launched, scaling into and out of positions, the possibility of a synthetic Bitcoin supply resulting from the new futures ETF, how to approach climate change and ESG investing as a Trend Follower, ideas for selecting which markets to trade, the benefits and drawbacks of trading single stocks, and how to embrace a creative mindset.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here: https://www.speakpipe.com/ttuvoicemail
Check out our Global...
2021-11-081h 25
TopTradersUnplugged.com164 Systematic Investor Series ft Richard Brennan – November 1st, 2021This week, Richard Brennan joins us on the show to discuss how people can benefit from the effects of compounding while others end up a paying a price for it. We also cover some thoughts on ‘path dependency,' why those invested in stocks should diversify using Trend Following strategies, why stable returns can only be correctly judged over long time periods, how to analyse fund performance without being influenced by the effects of compounding, some thoughts on what is known as ‘geometric returns’, and we explain the term ‘ergodicity’.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on th...
2021-11-011h 06
TopTradersUnplugged.com163 Systematic Investor Series ft Mark Rzepczynski – October 24th, 2021This week, Mark Rzepczynski joins us to discuss the Bitcoin ETF and the increasing likeliness that it won’t be banned by the US government, the need for money managers to convey good stories in order to simplify their processes to clients, why having a long track record of success, with one or two scars, is better than a perfect recent history, how Trend Following has been so successful over 6 decades, and how a non-secretive strategy like Trend Following compares to private equity strategies.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do...
2021-10-251h 19
TopTradersUnplugged.com162 Systematic Investor Series ft Moritz Seibert – October 17th, 2021We’re joined today by Moritz Seibert to answer some of the hardest questions in the Turtle Trader entrance exam, as well as discuss the new Bitcoin futures ETF, the drive towards ESG investments and how this affects global supply chains, the years’ top performers so far in our Trend Following systems, whether we can predict if a winning streak is about to end, why Bitcoin is often compared to gold, and whether crypto assets are more suited to shorter-term strategies.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here: http...
2021-10-181h 18
TopTradersUnplugged.com161 Systematic Investor Series ft Jerry Parker – October 10th, 2021Jerry Parker joins us for a very special episode today, where we invite him to answer the original interview questions from Richard Dennis’s famous Turtle Trader program. This is a fascinating insight into the world of Trend Following, and one which allows us to see whether Jerry has changed his opinions since working Richard Dennis, as well as explain some of his reasons for the answers he chose today.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here: https://www.speakpipe.com/ttuvoicemail
Check out our Global Macro series he...
2021-10-101h 01
TopTradersUnplugged.com160 Systematic Investor Series ft Rob Carver – October 3rd, 2021Rob Carver returns to the show today to discuss the differing performances among CTAs during the notable market moves of the last few weeks, how to decide whether one system is better or worse than another, spread betting as part of a diversified portfolio, raising initial capital when starting a new firm, some thoughts on the US debt ceiling, and how to safely improve your system while still adhering to its rules.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here: https://www.speakpipe.com/ttuvoicemail
Check out our Global...
2021-10-041h 04
TopTradersUnplugged.com159 Systematic Investor Series ft Richard Brennan – September 26th, 2021Richard Brennan joins us today to discuss the stabilising effect that a healthy allocation to Trend Following can have on a portfolio, how to achieve compounded wealth in the long-term with systematic investing, how Trend Following strategies can thrive in both crisis periods as well as good times, some thoughts on data distribution and ‘skewness’, how to effectively communicate the benefits of Trend Following to investors, and the art of ‘embracing uncertainty’ in order to maximise returns.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here: https://www.speakpipe.com/ttuvoice...
2021-09-261h 08
TopTradersUnplugged.com158 Systematic Investor Series ft Mark Rzepczynski – September 19th, 2021Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss why people are as important as processes when investors are choosing funds, the factors that can predict future performance of a fund manager, how Trend Following often performs best when markets are highly correlated, some thoughts on portfolio construction and the various ways to measure risk, the importance of having a strong narrative when communicating what you do to allocators, the infamous ‘bandwagon effect’ among investors, how current AUM can often affect an investors decision to choose a fund, how capital allocators can improve their due diligence with Trend Following funds, and why inve...
2021-09-201h 30
TopTradersUnplugged.com157 Systematic Investor Series ft Jerry Parker – September 13th, 2021Today we are joined by Jerry Parker to discuss how shorter-term systems can be more susceptible to market noise, the importance of sticking with your system during different market environments, how major investment firms have consistently performed well by keeping Trend Following in their portfolios, some insights into Jerry’s approach to backtesting, the drawbacks of being labelled as a CTA, Jerry’s bold prediction that Trend Following firms will be the most popular type of investment fund in the future, how trading smaller during bad periods can set you up for success during favourable conditions, ensuring protection against cyber atta...
2021-09-131h 06
TopTradersUnplugged.com156 Systematic Investor Series ft Moritz Seibert – September 6th, 2021Moritz Seibert joins us today to discuss the benefits of ‘system diversification’, the case for buying at all-time highs, how classical Trend Following is performing this year, the optimal amount of sample size for an effective backtest, the best ways to monitor risk levels, some tips for starting a new Trend Following business, some recommended backtesting software for retail traders, and how to navigate around your broker’s negative interest rates.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here: https://www.speakpipe.com/ttuvoicemail
Check out our Global Macro series...
2021-09-071h 05
TopTradersUnplugged.com155 Systematic Investor Series ft Richard Brennan – August 29th, 2021This week, Richard Brennan joins us to discuss whether there are any similarities between Trend Following and other investment approaches, the benefits of ‘forward-testing’ a system, the art of ‘hunting outliers’, what the optimum level of leverage could be, how much total portfolio ‘risk-to-stop’ to aim for, some thoughts on margin requirements, and which other strategy complements Trend Following the best. We also took a deep dive into backtesting, touching on topics such as: how much we can safely derive from a backtest, why a backtest with a smooth equity curve should raise alarm bells, a good checklist to use when creatin...
2021-08-291h 29
TopTradersUnplugged.com154 Systematic Investor Series ft Richard Brennan – August 22nd, 2021Richard Brennan joins us today to discuss the current global risk factors that could cause a large liquidity event, what the term ‘outlier’ really means from a Trend Follower’s perspective, the role of currencies in a Trend Following portfolio, the point at which diversification can end up diluting returns, whether different asset classes should be traded on different timeframes, some thoughts on pyramiding, and defining ‘non-linearity’ when discussing Trend Following models.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here: https://www.speakpipe.com/ttuvoicemail
Check out our Global Macro seri...
2021-08-231h 05
TopTradersUnplugged.com153 Systematic Investor Series ft Mark Rzepczynski – August 15th, 2021Mark Rzepczynski joins us on the show this week to discuss the importance of being aware of known and unknown risks, how economic data can contribute to a profitable system, how futures markets are some of the most liquid markets in the world, the need for a rules-based approach to the markets, how fundamental trends usually cause price trends, why making market predictions based on Federal Reserve announcements can be a bad idea, how the constant debasement of purchasing power has made passive investing difficult over the years, some famous quotes that can be applied to investing, and how to...
2021-08-151h 11
TopTradersUnplugged.com152 Systematic Investor Series ft Jerry Parker – August 8th, 2021Jerry Parker is on the show with us today to discuss Ethereum’s recent rise after a new ‘hard fork’, auto-correlation and its effects on Trend Following strategies, how trading extra markets can improve performance, drawdowns as a key to profiting from huge trends, how Trend Following firms who try to be too unique often end up underperforming, the power of pure Trend Following versus over-optimisation, why ESG investing should also take into account human rights issues, why you should love your trading rules but not your positions, and how trading in smaller sizes can lead to much bigger returns.
If you...
2021-08-081h 16
TopTradersUnplugged.com151 Systematic Investor Series ft Moritz Seibert – August 1st, 2021Today we’re joined by Moritz Seibert to discuss the efficacy of backtests, how to build a profitable spread trading model, Moritz’s addition of Ethereum futures to his portfolio, why commodities such as coal should still be traded, how to incorporate macro data into a systematic strategy, how to distinguish between long-term profitability and shorter-term luck, and the alternatives to Microsoft Excel for managing market data in a Trend Following system.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here: https://www.speakpipe.com/ttuvoicemail
Check out our Global Macr...
2021-08-011h 01
TopTradersUnplugged.com150 Systematic Investor Series ft Richard Brennan – July 25th, 2021This week, Richard Brennan from ATS Trading Solutions makes his debut on the show, and we discuss the complexity behind successful Trend Following strategies, momentum trading versus Trend Following, the importance of average win rate, how a weak edge can still lead to strong returns, deflationary environments and their past effects on the Trend Following models, which markets, and how many, to include in a profitable trading system, and how to find the perfect exit strategy with minimum risk.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here: https://www...
2021-07-251h 06
TopTradersUnplugged.com149 Systematic Investor Series ft Mark Rzepczynski – July 18th, 2021Mark Rzepczynski joins us this week to discuss ‘algorithm aversion’ and the science of how ‘model anxiety’ shows investors to be naturally wary of rules-based systems. We also discuss how to evaluate momentum data, how a busy week for market news can still be a quiet week for Trend Followers, the benefits of moving away from ‘peak complexity’ as soon as possible, why having too many filters can expose a trader to large opportunity costs, the optimal percentage amount of risk per trade, as well as portfolio construction versus signal generation and which is more important.
If you would like to leave us...
2021-07-181h 08
TopTradersUnplugged.com148 Systematic Investor Series ft Jerry Parker – July 11th, 2021Jerry Parker returns today to discuss why margin perhaps isn’t as important as people perceive it to be, the resurgence of ‘classical’ Trend Following, the importance of having a low Sharpe ratio, an update on Jerry’s Bitcoin positioning, the drawbacks of trading a single, longer-term timeframe, how European CTAs successfully compete with American CTAs, the best methods for measuring open risk, and why capturing the fewer large trends may be more important than the many small trends.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here: https://www.speakpip...
2021-07-111h 08
TopTradersUnplugged.com147 Systematic Investor Series ft Moritz Seibert – July 4th, 2021Moritz Seibert joins us today discuss the benefits of stripping down your trading approach as much as possible, the various ways to exit a hugely profitable trade, the different forms of research related to your investing approach, simplification vs over-complication, the acceptable amount of margin per trade, spread-betting using a Trend Following strategy, and if you should trade all markets the same way or tailor to each market accordingly.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here: https://www.speakpipe.com/ttuvoicemail
Check out our Global Macro series here...
2021-07-041h 04
TopTradersUnplugged.com146 Systematic Investor Series ft Rob Carver – June 28th, 2021We’re joined today by Rob Carver to discuss why investors worried about inflation need to be invested in Trend Following strategies, the Russell 2000 being mainly comprised of companies that are losing money, long and short positions when Trend Following on ETFs, the difficulties in combining simple methods into a balanced and profitable system, open trade equity risk and if it can predict future returns, the perils of over-optimisation, embracing the mindset of Trend Following, and the results of an experiment where retail investors traded the same stocks as a professional fund, leading to different outcomes.
If you would like to...
2021-06-281h 29
TopTradersUnplugged.com145 Systematic Investor Series ft Mark Rzepczynski – June 20th, 2021Mark Rzepczynski returns this week to discuss the recent decline in commodity prices, perceived hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve, trading narratives versus trading price action, the feasibility of Trend Following on options, the increased time & labour of short-term trading, the benefits of huge sample sizes, the differences between trading single stocks versus index futures, how investing rules offset our natural human tendencies, whether Technical Analysis contributes to typical Trend Following strategies, and Mark explains the ‘3 D’s’ of inflation.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here: https://www.sp...
2021-06-201h 18
TopTradersUnplugged.com144 Systematic Investor Series ft Jerry Parker – June 13th, 2021Jerry Parker joins us on the show today to discuss why CTAs could be mistaken in excluding single stocks from their strategies, the possible benefits of having exposure to multiple trading systems, why price action is more important than predictions derived from fundamentals, recommended books for learning about Trend Following, the differences between paper-trading and disciplined execution of real trades, comparing Bitcoin futures to commodity futures, and the extent of simplicity a good trading system should have.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here: https://www.speakpipe.com...
2021-06-131h 21
TopTradersUnplugged.com143 Systematic Investor Series ft Eric Crittenden – June 7th, 2021Special guest Eric Crittenden returns to the show today to discuss the fallacies of the typical 60/40 portfolio, the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to begin tightening fiscal policy, Eric’s last appearance on the show which was at the March 2020 stock market bottom, different speeds of Trend Following, why stable returns doesn’t always equate to low risk, the difficulty in being comfortable with doing the opposite of what we’re wired to do, how managed futures can help investor’s portfolios, negative interest rates and flight out of fixed income, what could Trend Following bring to the crypto space, and changi...
2021-06-071h 26
TopTradersUnplugged.com142 Systematic Investor Series ft Rob Carver – May 30th, 2021Rob Carver is on the show with us today to discuss why Elon Musk & the Chinese government might be proving that Bitcoin may not be as decentralised as first assumed, whether you should adjust your system according to the instrument being traded, some processes for reinvesting profits into your portfolio over time, thoughts on position sizing, different ways of defending against inflation, if short-term Trend Following may actually be as good as long-term Trend Following, and the sweet spot for number of different futures contracts a good system should trade.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to...
2021-05-301h 29
TopTradersUnplugged.com141 Systematic Investor Series ft Mark Rzepczynski – May 23rd, 2021Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss China’s move to ban Bitcoin trading, the Federal Reserve’s announcement of research into a new central bank digital currency, some of the issues around inflation and how it might affect trading, the psychology of drawdowns and the time in between new highs, how inflation can distort price signals, the recent rise of the ‘Misery Index’, Michael Burry’s huge bet against Tesla, the importance of exits in Trend Following strategies, and matching the right ‘Operation Tempo’ for your trading personality.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, y...
2021-05-231h 15
TopTradersUnplugged.com140 Systematic Investor Series ft Jerry Parker – May 16th, 2021Jerry Parker joins us today to discuss the benefits of prioritising price over other factors, navigating a high-inflationary environment, how bad markets for average investors can often be great for Trend Followers, how public awareness of a market uptrend can often precede large price drops, the potential drawbacks of trying to standout too much as a money-manager, how classical Trend Following is an increasing rarity in the CTA space, the benefits of investing in Trend Following via a proven manager, the similarities between amateur golfers and traders, the point at which a trend has been ‘confirmed’, and conquering the fear of l...
2021-05-161h 11
TopTradersUnplugged.com139 Systematic Investor Series ft Moritz Seibert – May 9th, 2021Moritz Seibert returns to the show today to discuss the Berkshire Hathaway annual general meeting, the possible raise in interest rates by the Federal Reserve, today’s great environment for Trend Following, the unpredictable nature of the markets and future trends, decentralised finance, increasing ESG requirements in the investment industry, the meteoric rise of Lumber prices, new and smaller Bitcoin futures contracts being listed on the CME, thoughts on Ethereum and Ethereum futures, and the possible advantages of being in a Trend Follower in the cryptocurrency space versus the buy & hold speculators.
If you would like to leave us a vo...
2021-05-091h 04
TopTradersUnplugged.com138 Systematic Investor Series ft Rob Carver – May 3rd, 2021We’re joined today by Rob Carver to discuss the process of selecting single stocks for a Trend Following system, Rob’s holy trinity of security selection, the JP Morgan-backed fund making huge bets, via options, on the market remaining quiet, the knock-on effects from funds who make large, risky bets, the sweet-spot for average holding periods in a Trend Following system, ‘caveman-style’ Trend Following versus scaling in and out of positions, how to hedge against inflation, how Trend Following historically has performed really well in rising interest-rate environments, and thoughts on Tesla’s recent earnings, a lot of which were from...
2021-05-031h 13TopTradersUnplugged.com138 Systematic Investor Series ft Rob Carver – May 3rd, 2021We’re joined today by Rob Carver to discuss the process of selecting single stocks for a Trend Following system, Rob’s holy trinity of security selection, the JP Morgan-backed fund making huge bets, via options, on the market remaining quiet, the knock-on effects from funds who make large, risky bets, the sweet-spot for average holding periods in a Trend Following system, ‘caveman-style’ Trend Following versus scaling in and out of positions, how to hedge against inflation, how Trend Following historically has performed really well in rising interest-rate environments, and thoughts on Tesla’s recent earnings, a lot of which were from...
2021-05-031h 13
TopTradersUnplugged.com137 Systematic Investor Series ft Mark Rzepczynski – April 25th, 2021Today, Mark Rzepczynski returns to the show to discuss how Trend Following allows investors to own more risky assets, Systematic Global Macro versus Trend Following, the process of how an investor digests new information, classical Trend Following versus modern Trend Following with AI methods, whether rock-star hedge funds such as ARK Invest can end up being too greedy when seeking AUM, why it can be a good idea to avoid timing the different exposures of your portfolio as much as possible, some of the possible reasons behind Dunn Capital’s successful near 50-year track record, and thoughts on position-sizing in re...
2021-04-251h 21
TopTradersUnplugged.com136 Systematic Investor Series ft Jerry Parker – April 18th, 2021Jerry Parker returns to the show today to discuss the how investments can often turn into religions, the recent Coinbase IPO, using historical volatility for position sizing, comparing long-term trend following to Buy & Hold, ‘trend strength’ signals, how much of a portfolio should be allocated to Trend Following strategies, mean-reversion systems versus Trend Following systems, and thoughts on finding or adding to new positions.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here: https://www.speakpipe.com/ttuvoicemail
Check out our Global Macro series here: https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/category/glob...
2021-04-181h 12
TopTradersUnplugged.com135 Systematic Investor Series ft Moritz Seibert – April 11th, 2021Moritz Seibert joins us today to discuss the little-known hedge fund Archegos, who recently blew up and cost billions of dollars for large institutions such as Credit Suisse and Nomura. We also discuss whether cracks are beginning to show in the stock market, the bull market in commodities, opportunities for investing in Chinese commodity markets, the risks of trading in emerging markets, how to trade cryptocurrency futures, and combining Trend Following strategies with none-correlated strategies in the same system.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here: https://www...
2021-04-111h 17
TopTradersUnplugged.com134 Systematic Investor Series ft Jerry Parker – April 4th, 2021Jerry Parker is on the show with us today to discuss why short positions are beneficial to a profitable trading strategy, the importance of not over-tweaking an already good system, the case for Trend Following as the dominant strategy in an investment portfolio, the amount of volatility that can be regarded as too risky, and Jerry calls out Niels for a future debate regarding the possible uses of multi-timeframe analysis.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here: https://www.speakpipe.com/ttuvoicemail
Check out our Global Macro series...
2021-04-041h 05
TopTradersUnplugged.com133 Systematic Investor Series ft Rob Carver – March 29th, 2021Rob Carver joins us today to discuss whether it’s a good idea to adjust your strategy during different periods of volatility, Bitcoin’s expected role as an inflation-hedge, whether commodities are more suited to shorter-term trading than other markets, the NFT frenzy & its credibility as an investment asset, volume analysis and whether it can be play worthwhile part in a Trend Following system, and why volatility may not be a good measure of risk.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here: https://www.speakpipe.com/ttuvoicemail
Check out...
2021-03-291h 21
TopTradersUnplugged.com132 Systematic Investor Series ft Mark Rzepczynski – March 21st, 2021Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss Jerome Powell’s recent speech and how central banks can often confuse markets, the potential of Artificial Intelligence in systematic investing, whether or not holding government bonds is a good idea, the recent rise in interest rates and what it means for the stock market, the relationship between correlations and volatility, why policy makers should avoid trying to engineer future expectations, how recency-bias affects our decision making, complexity versus complicatedness, robotic systematic investing versus human discretionary investing, how to tell the difference between a systematic and discretionary trader by looking at returns only, an...
2021-03-211h 29
TopTradersUnplugged.com131 Systematic Investor Series ft Moritz Seibert – March 14th, 2021Moritz Seibert returns to the show today to discuss the challenges of managing large amounts of cash in a high-inflationary environment, the importance of maintaining a healthy attitude during long winning-streaks, the resurgence & resilience of the GameStop short-squeeze, Bitcoin reaching $60,000, the importance of prioritising process over outcome, the new VIX ETFs for Bitcoin & Ethereum, and whether or not Gold is a safe long-term investment.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here: https://www.speakpipe.com/ttuvoicemail
Check out our Global Macro series here: https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/category...
2021-03-141h 09
TopTradersUnplugged.com130 Systematic Investor Series ft Jerry Parker & Rob Carver – March 8th, 2021We have a special episode for you today featuring Turtle Trading legend Jerry Parker and renown Systematic Investor Robert Carver, who debate the topic of Volatility Targeting and how actively one should manage open trade equity risk. We also discuss the benefits of ‘Hybrid Trend Following’ versus classical Trend Following, breakouts & moving averages versus other trend indicators, whether the 2020 market crash should have caused systematic investors to update their strategies, and if short positions should still have a place in today’s Trend Following portfolios.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do...
2021-03-071h 23
TopTradersUnplugged.com129 Systematic Investor Series ft Mark Rzepczynski – March 1st, 2021We’re joined today by Mark Rzepczynski to discuss the return of the Gamestop short-squeeze, Trend Following in a high interest-rate environment, the future of AI & machine learning in trading models, the case for including short positions in a portfolio, how to spot a commodity ‘super-cycle’, the different factors driving markets higher, why good news can often be bad news for markets, retail investors opening trades on the wrong ticker symbols, and why Trend Following tends to do better on the long-side.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here...
2021-02-281h 16
TopTradersUnplugged.com128 Systematic Investor Series ft Jerry Parker – February 22nd, 2021Jerry Parker returns today to discuss how Trend Following is perfectly suited for both inflationary and deflationary environments, why investors tend to underperform the S&P500 index, how to look at open trade risk & current equity curve, the perils of designing the ‘perfect’ trading system with all the bells & whistles, whether or not it’s a good idea to tighten stop-losses on profitable trades that have risen sharply, why financial media tends to dramatise the impact CTAs have on the markets, and why Trend Following on Bitcoin may be a better option than buy & hold.
If you would like to leave...
2021-02-221h 18
TopTradersUnplugged.com127 Systematic Investor Series ft Moritz Seibert – February 15th, 2021Today, we discuss Bitcoin’s rise to $50,000 and how to judge its future role in society, Moritz’s incredible start to the year without changing any part of his trading system, CME’s introduction of Ethereum futures, The Big Short’s Michael Burry calling a top in Tesla, India’s proposed Bitcoin ban, and how a fascinating study, using over 1 million investment combinations, showed that a 30% allocation to Trend Following increased risk-adjusted-returns on every single occasion.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here: https://www.speakpipe.com/ttuvoicemail
Check out...
2021-02-151h 04
TopTradersUnplugged.com126 Systematic Investor Series ft Rob Carver – February 7th, 2021Rob Carver returns to the show today to give us his thoughts on the WallStreetBets Reddit forum & their Gamestop short-squeeze, the gamification of trading, why Robinhood had to suspend trading on Gamestop, the attempted short-squeeze in the Silver market, Rob’s recent article on how to become a systematic trader, Niels’ journey into the CTA industry, the importance of diversifying amongst investment processes as well as securities, the rise of passive investing over active, and whether the ascendency of passive investing will lead to extreme levels of market volatility in the future.
If you would like to leave us a voic...
2021-02-071h 38
TopTradersUnplugged.com125 Systematic Investor Series ft Mark Rzepczynski – January 31st, 2021Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss the Gamestop short-squeeze, democratisation of the investment industry, increasing expectation among investors that the Federal Reserve will always prevent prolonged market crashes, the 3 main ingredients for a market bubble, whether we are seeing a bubble in the stock market today, the role of short sellers and short selling, whether the WallStreetBets Reddit forum will prompt newer and tighter regulations in the future, the shift towards passive investing over active investing, what we can learn from crowd behaviour, building trading systems without stop-losses, and rare insights into the John W. Henry trading methodology.
If...
2021-01-311h 19
TopTradersUnplugged.com124 Systematic Investor Series ft Jerry Parker – January 24th, 2021Turtle Trading legend Jerry Parker joins us today to discuss why smart people often struggle with systematic investing, the benefits of non-predictive investment strategies, what changes Jerry would make to Richard Dennis and William Eckhart’s original Turtle Trading rules, why predefined trade exits are good for your mind-state, why Trend Following strategies are so suited to unexpected market events, the importance of sticking to the core principles when applying a Trend Following system, whether Trend Following traders should have learned anything from the markets in 2020, why you should take as little as possible from a backtest, and what having a...
2021-01-241h 01
TopTradersUnplugged.com123 Systematic Investor Episode – January 18th, 2021In today’s show, we discuss the benefits of not taking profits too early during huge price moves, how a Trend Follower might be trading Bitcoin, if March 2020 may have impacted a Trend Follower’s approach to the markets, why the S&P 500 could be considered just as much of an ‘alternative’ market as Iron Ore, our most memorable trades, Bitcoin as a great diversifier in a Trend Following portfolio, and how a retail trader can gain access to managed futures. Questions we answer this week include: What prompted Moritz to place his Tesla short trade recently, and how did it play...
2021-01-181h 24
TopTradersUnplugged.com122 Systematic Investor Episode ft Rob Carver – January 10th, 2021We’re joined today by Rob Carver to discuss how quant managers compared to discretionary managers in 2020, Winton Capital’s underperformance and resulting loss of AUM, the pressure for successful Trend Following firms to expand into different investment styles, why March & December 2020 were generally the best for Trend Followers despite being so different, how a portfolio combining a few historically successful Trend Following firms has proven to be a very potent investment strategy, navigating negative interest rate environments, how to look at Sharpe Ratios effectively, and how to calculate the ‘Serenity Ratio’ of various strategies.
If you would like to leave us...
2021-01-101h 21
TopTradersUnplugged.com121 Systematic Investor Episode – January 6th, 2021In this episode, we conclude our special 2-part series on how to design a Trend Following system with a deeper dive into some performance statistics over the last couple of decades, including correlations, drawdowns and how different market environments have impacted our system. We also touch on how to add some ‘personality’ to a fully algorithmic trading system.
If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here: https://www.speakpipe.com/ttuvoicemail
Check out our Global Macro series here: https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/category/global-macro/
Learn more about the Trend Baro...
2021-01-0636 min