Shows
Across The SpreadBank of Japan Rates Now On A Knife’s EdgeBank of Japan January 2025 rate hike commentary and analysis summary.The Critical “BOJ 50bps Ceiling” Bank of Japan Jan’25 Meeting Markets BreakdownGovernor Ueda’s Press Conference12:42 Background Context of BOJ Rate Hikes Under Gov Ueda17:05 Governor Ueda's “One More Notch” NeededThe BOJ “Rice Price” Rate Hike“If The Outlook Is Realized, Bank of Japan Will Continue To Raise Rates” - What This Really MeansFurther Insights & Commentary on Jan’25 Bank of Japan:•Bank of Japan Jan’25 Rate Hike (Video)BOJ policy rate at 0.5% is now on a knife’s edge - until the next hike...2025-01-2931 min
Maggie Lake Talking MarketsEpisode 45: The Asian Flows No One is Talking About. With Weston NakamuraNine major central banks are meeting this week to decide monetary policy. Maggie Lake sits down with Weston Nakamura, author of Across the Spread substack, to discuss the outlook for the dollar and whether the Bank of Japan will buck the global trend and tighten. They'll also talk about why investors may be underestimating a powerful bid to US markets - Asian investors fleeing domestic troubles.
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Connect with me on Twitter: https://x...2024-12-1037 min
Lead-Lag LiveWeston Nakamura on Japanese Political Shifts, Yen Carry Trade Dynamics, and China's Strategic Economic PoliciesUnlock the secrets behind Japan's unexpected political shifts and their seismic impact on financial markets. Discover how Takaichi, a staunch right-wing conservative, has shaken up the political scene by opposing rate hikes and backing a weaker yen, leading to a surprising surge in the Nikkei index. Join Weston Nakamura, with his extensive institutional finance background, as he dissects these developments and offers insights into how political currents are swaying market movements, inviting you to join the conversation and deepen your understanding of these dynamics.We venture into the complexities of the yen carry trade and challenge conventional...2024-10-0453 min
Across The SpreadChina Blasts Stimulus As Japan Self-Destructs | Weston Nakamura & Michael GayedStreamed live on Sep 30, 2024Michael Gayed interviews Weston Nakamura once again during live market hours in Asia, as Japan implodes upon the LDP leadership election results, as Shigeru Ishiba stuns markets in a victorious runoff round against Sanae Takaichi to become Japan’s next Prime Minister. Weston discusses why NKY and USDJPY are getting idiosyncratically hammered. Meanwhile, China unleashes multifaceted stimulus measures as the biggest market development out of Asia (if not globally) in the past week - Weston and Michael discuss if this is the real-deal, or just another movie replay.2024-10-0148 min
Across The SpreadMichael Gayed & Weston Nakamura LIVE During Black Monday Japan Trading HoursFilmed live on Monday August 5, 2024 during the Japan AM trading session of Black Monday 2024, the day that Japan had blown up global markets.Michael A. Gayed of The Lead-Lag Report and Weston Nakamura from Across The Spread are live, just as the NKY225 and TOPIX Indices see a stunning -12% single-day drop, with global indices across Europe and the US following suit, all thanks to a massive (continuing) surge in JPY. Michael and Weston discuss the JPY carry trade unwind, the Japan equity market meltdown, and the broader global market spillover effects underway...2024-09-221h 04
Across The SpreadYen Driven Global Markets Are Misreading Bank Of JapanOriginally aired August 8, 2024 on YouTube: Watch the episode with charts and full context at Across The Spread Official Youtube here.Weston Nakamura once again calls for "top-tick" on NKY and NDX futures, using his newly identified trading range on USDJPY, and explains how markets are severely misreading the latest out of Bank of Japan policy intent, dispelling Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Uchida's "dovish remarks" as the explanation for the global equity rally and yen sell-off during the Japan trading day, and suggests a unique angle on accelerated expectations for Fed rate cuts due to the Japan...2024-09-2243 min
Across The SpreadThe Most Important Price Level In Global Markets Right NowOriginally aired Jul 30, 2024 on YouTube: Watch the episode on video with charts to follow along at Across The Spread Official Youtube Channel here,For further insights and commentary on JPY and its correlation vs NDX, including a deeper look into CTAs, systematic flow behavior and more, see the corresponding article on Across The Spread Substack - read here USDJPY: 152 - The CrowdStrike of Global MarketsAs yen strength shakes up markets, USDJPY at 152 is the world’s most consequential green & red blinking ticker price level in the immediate term as it relates to ma...2024-09-2220 minLead-Lag LiveWeston Nakamura on Yen Carry Trade Risks, Japan's Currency Interventions, and Global Market ImplicationsUnlock the secrets of the global margin call and understand why the yen's strength could be a critical point of failure in finance with macro researcher Weston Nakamura. In this fascinating episode, we uncover the latest developments in the yen carry trade and its ripple effects on markets like the NASDAQ and Russell 2000. Nakamura provides a deep dive into the Japan Ministry of Finance's interventions and their knock-on effects, drawing intriguing parallels with the post-1990s bubble burst era in Japan.We also revisit the infamous 2008 financial crisis through the lens of the carry trade, particularly focusing...2024-08-0954 min
Across The SpreadThe Return of YenterventionWeston Nakamura's guest appearance on Endgame Podcast with @peruvian_bull discussing the Bank of Japan, Ministry of Finance and the latest round of yenterventions. Endgame Podcast: Welcome to the YenGame with Weston Nakamura(Filmed on Friday May 3rd 2024)2:10 Background of Bank of Japan's Radical Policy Experimentation 11:45 How Yield Curve Control Ultimately Failed19:30 Limitations To Further JGB Buying, And Unwinding22:57 The Carry Trade27:52 🇯🇵BOJ + 🇦🇺RBA’s Dual YCC, AUD/JPY Carry Trade, and Risk Assets in 202032:10 Current State of JPY Carry Trade2024-05-161h 11
Across The SpreadFrom D-Student with Zero Experience To Trading At Goldman Sachs: Weston Nakamura’s StoryFrom my presentation to the investment club at Temple University Japan Campus on March 28, 2024. Contingency Planning: my “religion” for markets, trading, & careers (risk management)My Background: Bottom academics, no institutional experience, no markets knowledge, move to Tokyo with nothing → Goldman futures trading desk → Jefferies equity salesTrading Markets: Learn about YOURSELF WITHIN MARKETS (& not markets themselves). Pay market tuition & never take a market loss. BIG WINS are produced by: Luck + Prioritize focus, effort & intended mindset upon mitigating BIG LOSSES + LuckCareer Commentary: Preparing for the Coming Crisis of Major Widespread & Permanent Job Destruction from Disruption - the risk of...2024-04-1854 minAcross The Spread"A World Where There Is An Interest Rate" | Grant Williams (Part 3)In the last of this three-part series from Across The Spread on Japan's impact on global markets with Grant Williams and Weston Nakamura, we dive into the front-and-center matter of exiting the world's last negative policy rate yield-anchor and what Bank of Japan “normalization” really means. Read on Across The Spread Substack:➣"Dark Skies at Aozora Bank" (Feb 1, 2024)bit.ly/ats_Aozora_Bank➣"What BOJ Thinks of Japan Wages and Negative Rates" (Mar 7, 2024)bit.ly/ats_BOJ_Wages_Prices➣"Quick Note on Market-Moving BOJ Negati...2024-03-1826 min
Across The SpreadJapan's Stock Market Crash That Never Happened | Grant Williams (Part 1)Watch the full 3-part interview with Grant Williams available now on Substack:https://westonnakamura.substack.comPart 1: Bull market - 1989 vs nowPart 2: Reflections on being financial “content creators”Part 3: Bank of Japan and policy normalizationhttps://substack.com/@acrossthespreadGrant Williams is the author of THINGS THAT MAKE YOU GO HMMM..., host of the Grant Williams Podcast Series, and co-founder of Real Vision. Grant’s career in institutional finance spanned various roles around the world - but started out in a wild-west corner of tradin...2024-02-1129 min
Beyond The PriceBitcoin, Bank of Japan, and Why Macro Matters (Weston Nakamura, Across The Spread)Super excited to bring you this one. Been trying to get Weston on for a while. Weston Nakamura covers Japan/Asia macro, BOJ, USD/JPY, and much more, so I asked him about the Bank of Japan's outsized role on the global stage, what's the deal with the Japanese yen, and how traditional investors see Bitcoin vs. how he sees it, as well as why everyone should pay at least some attention to markets and how it's not as intimidating as you might think.Let me know if you'd like to hear more about these topics...2023-12-131h 37
WTFinanceThe FED has Lost Control of Global Bond Markets to BOJ with Weston NakamuraInterview recorded - 10th of November, 2023On this episode of the WTFinance podcast I have the pleasure of welcoming back Weston Nakamura - Founder & Host of @acrossthespreadYT .During our conversation we spoke about 0:00 - Introduction2:21 - What is Weston currently seeing in global bond markets?12:46 - Are the BoJ unwinding yield control?21:31 - Will Japanese bonds follow a similar trend to the US?25:36 - Why is there a correlation between BoJ & other bonds?29:56 - Why is the Yen remaining weak with increasing yields?38:21 - Wil global yields/J...2023-11-1552 min
Across The SpreadBank of Japan Fires Back At Markets By Killing It's Own Yield Curve Control Policy (BOJ Series Pt.1)Bank of Japan's October 2023 policy change was a historic moment for global markets, as it marked the official end of providing markets with an explicit central bank "put."Produced by Weston NakamuraMusic by Weston NakamuraAcross The Spread Links:*Official Websitehttps://acrossthespread.com*Substackhttps://westonnakamura.substack.com/about*YouTubehttps://www.youtube.com/@acrossthespreadYT*X (Twitter)https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadSupport Across...2023-11-1232 min
Macro Mondays#22 - Either you do Japan, or Japan will do you! - Guest: Weston NakamuraThe Bank of Japan is the only major currency authority in the post-COVID era to fight back against USD strength via intervention - and win. Can they pull it off again? We host the great Weston Nakamura for a deep-dive into the Japanese monetary and fiscal policy.Towards the end, we give an update on our current positioning and the portfolio outlook for the remainder of 2023.Use "macro30" to get 30% off your first purchase at www.stenoresearch.comCheck out Weston's analysis on his substack right here:https://westonnakamura.substack.c...2023-11-0559 min
The MacroVisor PodcastA Discussion about Rates, Japan and China with Weston NakamuraWe have an in-depth discussion with special guest Weston Nakamura of Across the Spread about interest rates, Japan and China’s respective economies and markets, as well as the impact of policy decisions and market forces in Asia on the global picture To learn more about Weston’s work and to follow him, please see the links […]2023-10-201h 29The MacroVisor PodcastA Discussion about Rates, Japan and China with Weston NakamuraWe have an in-depth discussion with special guest Weston Nakamura of Across the Spread about interest rates, Japan and China’s respective economies and markets, as well as the impact of policy decisions and market forces in Asia on the global picture To learn more about Weston’s work and to follow him, please see the links […]2023-10-201h 29
Trader ChatsCorrelation vs Causation with Weston NakamuraCorrelation vs Causation with Weston Nakamura
Trader Chats | October 13th, 2023
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Across The SpreadIntroducing Across The SpreadIntroducing the launch of the Across The Spread podcast by Weston Nakamura.Across The Spread is the next chapter of the Market Depth podcast on Blockworks Macro - covering global, cross-asset markets from the lens of the Asia Pacific trading session, and how major markets are impacted by developments out of Asia.New episodes every week.Across The Spread Links:*Official Websitehttps://acrossthespread.com*Substackhttps://westonnakamura.substack.com/about*YouTubehttps://www.youtube.com...2023-10-1201 minLead-Lag LiveExploring Asian Markets and Central Bank Policies with Weston NakamuraGet ready for an electrifying voyage into the world of finance with Weston Nakamura. Weston is a seasoned finance professional who relocated to Tokyo at the start of Abinomics and has since navigated his career from derivatives futures options trading to a pivotal role at Blockworks Macro. He brings a unique perspective on the dynamics of central bank policies, Japan's yield curve control, and the influence of Asian markets on the global financial framework. If you've ever been curious about the blind spots in the US coverage of Asian markets, this is the episode for you. We d...2023-08-201h 06
Market DepthWhat Triggered Fitch's Downgrade Of U.S Debt?With still no further clarity on Bank of Japan’s new policy framework of Yield Curve Control, and currency and cash bond markets out of sync, Weston Nakamura examines market price action and activity on US and Japan rates through the lens of futures markets, in order to determine if cross asset market behavior is normalizing.Weston also notes the schedule for this week, in which there will be 30-year auctions held in both the Japanese Government Bond market, as well as the US Treasury market, within 2 days of one another. Given the respective policy setups for US...2023-08-0849 minMarket DepthPeople's Bank Of China Is Running Without A GovernorIn today's episode, Weston Nakamura explains the recent price action of the world's worst performing currencies in 2023: the Japanese yen's sudden surge as options on futures expire and crowded positions close, and the Chinese yuan in crisis mode as the authorities continue to urgently exercise multiple yuan-supportive measures. Weston suggests that should the yen short covering gain momentum, global yields may fall in tandem.Lastly, Weston follows up on his recent and ongoing thesis of the leadership shakeup currently underway at the People's Bank of China with additional thoughts - namely, why the central bank is currently...2023-07-1138 minMarket DepthChina’s Stimulus Takes A Backseat To Save The Yuan | Michael HowellIn order to get a truly expert assessment on the liquidity picture out of China, Michael Howell from Crossborder Capital joins Weston Nakamura, as they explore Weston’s thesis from the previous episode of Market Depth - China’s immediate term priority is to stop the yuan’s precipitous fall. This has been made evident by the PBOC’s daily yuan fixings stronger, as well as their net liquidity draining that had been occurring over the last several trading days.In addition, Michael incorporates his view on how the Japanese yen is being weaponized to attack the Chinese...2023-07-0736 minMarket DepthWhat The Sudden Leadership Shakeup At The People's Bank Of China Is Really AboutOver the weekend, the top brass at China’s central bank Yi Gang (PBOC Governor) and Guo Shuqing (PBOC Communist Party Chief) were suddenly removed from their posts after having been reappointed by President Xi Jinping less than four months ago. Meanwhile, PBOC Deputy Governor Pan Gongsheng has been elevated to the role of Party Secretary at PBOC, and is also expected to be named Governor of the PBOC shortly. Pan is also currently the Director of SAFE (State Administration of Foreign Exchange) - the foremost currency management body which oversees China’s massive $3 trillion in foreign exchange reserves. ...2023-07-0549 minMarket DepthAll Eyes On The Yen Getting Crushed As Bank Of Japan’s Ueda Makes His First International AppearanceAfter being sidelined by coronavirus, Weston Nakamura returns to Market Depth with charts and graphics to discuss the Japanese yen edging ever closer to the critical 145 level against USD - currently the single most important market and price level anywhere, as markets are on Japan officials’ intervention alert.Weston shows how Japan’s October 2022 unilateral foreign exchange direct market intervention was the most pivotal moment of the year in global markets - as that had forced a record-sized short covering of JPY futures, and simultaneously setting the top tick in the risk free rate of 10-year US Trea...2023-06-2740 minMarket DepthThe European Central Bank Takes Shots At The Bank Of JapanOff the heels of the June 2023 FOMC's "hawkish pause," PBOC's "catch-up cuts," ECB's "hawkish hike," and BOJ's "dovish autopilot unchanged" policies, Weston Nakamura takes a look back at a historic week of globally synchronized fragmentation among major central banks. In particular, Weston looks into the peculiar relationship forming between the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan, in which the ECB calls the BOJ policy normalization a major risk to global bond markets in its official financial stability report - a rare commentary made against a fellow major central bank peer. Weston discusses how...2023-06-1924 minMarket DepthWhy The Aussie Yen Carry Trade Matters To Risk AssetsThe Reserve Bank of Australia shocks markets again, hiking rates for a second consecutive time after having paused once before, and thereby setting precedence for the June FOMC next week, when the Fed is expected to “skip” a rate hike. Weston Nakamura explains the significance of the RBA’s policy behavior to other major central banks.Weston also shows how and why AUD matters to risk assets, such as the S&P500 index, and explains how the (in)famous AUDJPY carry trade works - noting that AUDJPY is currently re-correlating with the S&P500 price action.Fina...2023-06-0630 minMarket DepthHow Global Markets Are Responding To China's StimulusFollowing up from Friday's episode of Market Depth, Weston Nakamura reviews the global equity markets' initial reactions to China's after-hours headline for new stimulus targeted at the Chinese real estate, property and development sectors on Friday evening in Asia. The market impact was significant across the world, with stocks like Caterpillar pushing the Dow Jones Industrial Average higher by 2% at US close to outperform the S&P500 and Nasdaq indices in immediate reaction, as well as it's Japanese peer Komatsu and other machinery stocks driving the Nikkei 225 index by over 2% to another 33-year high at Asia market open on...2023-06-0628 minMarket DepthWhen Markets De-Risk, But Not Decouple (from China)A lousy Manufacturing PMI reading out of China pulled the Hang Seng index officially into bear market territory, sent the yuan crashing through 7.10, and seemed to have set off a broader, risk-off market move that reverberated across asset classes globally. But, did yet another piece of weak economic data from China really spook global markets - particularly the previously China-resilient DM equity indices such as Japan? After all, Asia equities ex-China have been leading the world higher for several weeks, ignoring one disappointing data release out of China after another. What (else) actually happened to stop the m...2023-05-3133 minMarket DepthThe Worst Week In Markets For The China Reopen TradeMay was the worst month for markets that have bet on the China reopen theme - and this final week was particularly bad. Weston Nakamura walks through various markets - from equities, to commodities, to fixed income, and of course, the yuan, and shows how each asset class is in agreement - the China reopen theme is dead. What's more, there is still room to the downside in many of these markets.Weston also discusses how he is framing up trading a widely expected rate cut from the PBOC.--Follow...2023-05-2619 minMarket DepthNvidia Reignites A Global Rally In A.I. StocksDespite Fitch putting the US's credit rating on negative watch, global markets are largely brushing off debt-ceiling risk. Weston Nakamura comments on the knee-jerk market reaction to the Fitch headline of strength in the yen and in gold, and also provides color on how the largest foreign creditors to the United States, the Japanese institutional investors, are viewing a potential US default, and what they are doing in the US Treasury markets. Weston also provides a potential trade set up in the event of a US technical default outcome.Weston then discusses the massive market impact on...2023-05-2516 minMarket DepthIs Japan About To Crash, Or Explode Higher?While China’s PBOC leaves their Loan Prime Rates unchanged as expected, the central bank issues an official statement on Friday warning of FX market intervention, should the yuan’s precipitous decline continue. Nonetheless, the yuan continued its downside move during Monday’s Asia trading session, as Wall Street estimates further price out the once-expected recovery. Weston Nakamura discusses the yuan’s weakness in context of “USD strength.”Then onto Japan, where the Nikkei225 and TOPIX indices continue their relentless marches higher for an 8th consecutive day, to new 3-decade levels. Weston Nakamura discusses how this current market setup...2023-05-2227 minMarket DepthChinese Yuan Plummets, What Next?The Chinese yuan, which had been in recent accelerated decline, hitting new year-to-date lows, has now crossed through a very key level into the 7-handle for onshore USDCNY. Furthermore, the currency's sharp move lower seems to confirm the weak macro data releases of late.Weston Nakamura discusses the Chinese yuan's price action, and explains its correlation across asset classes and markets - including the S&P500, copper prices, the Hang Seng Property Index, and more. Weston also provides implications of what the falling currency could mean for markets going forward.--Follow Market...2023-05-1823 minMarket DepthHopes For Global Growth Fade As China Data Disappoints AgainChina once again misses consensus estimates on three of their latest data releases today, showing weakness in retail sales, industrial production, fixed asset investment, as well as a record high 20% youth unemployment rate.Given the deluge of macro data out of China so far this month, Weston Nakamura organizes and presents a clear, full picture of where China currently stands regarding the state of the domestic consumer, industrial manufacturing, and loans, credit and investments - the results of which point to an economy unable to regain traction following the sudden lifting of their strict COVID policies.2023-05-1625 minMarket DepthWhy Turkish Elections And The Lira Matter To Global Macro MarketsAs the first round of Turkish general elections result in a runoff round, with President Erdogan facing his toughest political challenge yet, Turkish assets have been exhibiting volatility - as one would expect given the uncertainty. However, the one asset class that remains strangely stable (thus far) is the Turkish Lira, as continued state interventions dampen any sharp selling pressure from plunging deep into new record lows (for now). Weston Nakamura does a deep dive into the Turkish lira, and the often overlooked significance that the lira has had on global markets, citing two instances in particular...2023-05-1659 minMarket DepthNavigating A Wild Week Of Market DriversIn this week-in-review, Weston Nakamura follows up with market themes from earlier in the week. Starting with the frenzy and crash in Chinese bank stocks against a resilient Japanese equity market, Weston revisits the Japan - China market divergence call. Then, its over to Niigata Japan, where G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bankers have convened to discuss inflation, Russian sanctions, banking crises, and a host of other measures - but instead, find themselves with only one issue in mind: the looming US debt ceiling debate.Finally, Weston follows up with market reactions to earnings out o...2023-05-1236 minMarket DepthChinese Equities About To Break, As Japan Is About To Break OutIn today’s episode, Weston Nakamura breaks down China’s latest trade data for April, which saw strong but declining export growth, and a surprise contraction in imports - and what this says about the state of the China “re-open” theme, and the broader global demand picture.Weston also goes through the chronology of another day of speculative frenzy in Chinese financial stocks, which may have hit an intraday reversal today for downside momentum in the immediate.Weston then discusses the Japanese equity market - which is the one major market that remains resilient against the Chin...2023-05-0924 minMarket DepthJapan: The Great Global Macro Driver with Taka KatoWeston Nakamura sits down with a special guest on Market Depth: Taka Kato, former head of trading at Bitflyer, Japan's largest crypto exchange, and trader at Goldman Sachs Japan, in a wide ranging discussion of Japan markets, policy, and global impact.Taka first gives his take on the year to date rally in Bitcoin from his vantage point at a major crypto exchange.Weston and Taka then talk Bank of Japan policy and Governor Ueda's course of action in the near and Long term - giving Weston a revelation as to why foreign macro hedge...2023-05-051h 04Market DepthWhat Does the Reserve Bank of Australia Restarting Rate Hikes Mean For Other Central Banks?The RBA shocked global markets when they hiked policy rates by 25 basis points for their May policy meeting, after having just paused their aggressive rate hiking cycle in the prior meeting, in order to examine the effects of their year-long measures in tightening policy. Some will interpret the RBA's decision as a forward indicator for other major central banks' respective hiking and pausing cycles. However, Weston Nakamura discusses broader takeaways from the RBA with applications to the Fed, ECB, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, and other central bank policies.Weston also discusses the currency markets in...2023-05-0219 minMarket DepthForeign Investors Are Buying Japan Stocks at Record PaceEver since Warren Buffett's endorsement of Japan equities during his recent visit to Tokyo, weekly data from Japan Ministry of Finance shows foreign investors have been buying the most Japan equities on record. This coincides with Japan equity indices' recent outperformance relative to its developed market majors. However, Weston Nakamura warns of a key resistance level on the horizon for the Nikkei 225 index.Weston also discusses the surprise miss in China Manufacturing PMI, and its impact on commodities. Finally, Weston talks about the upcoming major central bank decisions for the week, and to look to the currency...2023-05-0108 minMarket DepthA Chaotic First Meeting For Bank of Japan Governor UedaFor a "policy unchanged" outcome in-line with consensus, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda's first monetary policy meeting was a wild day for markets. Weston Nakamura walks through the chronology of the day, starting with a major pre-announcement press leak, a delayed policy release time, and an ambiguous press conference that sent the yen tumbling sharply.Weston analyzes the methods and practices of policy communication, media, and markets, which this new leadership has seemed to embrace in a departure from his predecessor Governor Kuroda. Ultimately, Governor Ueda's first policy meeting has left far more questions unanswered than before.2023-04-2823 minMarket DepthWill the Bank of Japan Shock Global Markets Tomorrow?As we head into the first Bank of Japan policy meeting under a brand new Governor Ueda tomorrow, Tokyo-based Weston Nakamura discusses the broad consensus view of a "no policy change" outcome, as Japan CPI has moderated, and market pressures have alleviated since the March meeting.However, Weston also makes the case for why there may very well be a surprise decision to come from the Bank of Japan's new and unknown leadership- with major consequences to global markets.Here is everything you need to know ahead of the April Bank of Japan policy meeting...2023-04-2739 minMarket DepthThe End Game Scenario for the Bank of JapanFor Day 2 of Bank of Japan Week, Weston Nakamura explains how the Bank of Japan, through years of radical and experimental easing policy, has cornered itself against markets - both in the near term with Yield Curve Control, as well as the longer term by being forced to support the world’s most indebted nation’s fiscal sustainability. Weston discusses the background history of how Yield Curve Control’s trading bands were crafted, and why they are a double edged sword. Finally, Weston makes the case that aside from near-term attempts at “normalization,” ultimately, the Bank of Japan will...2023-04-2531 minMarket DepthCan China Offset A Global Growth Slowdown?To round up a week of key global macro data out of Asia, Weston Nakamura provides his big picture take on the surprise upside beat in China GDP and retail sales, as well as an overview on the latest Japan inflation figures.Heading into Bank of Japan next week, Weston also provides additional context from the corporate angle, as credit issuers, asset managers and others prepare for the end of an era of easy money. --Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple P...2023-04-2124 min
Deep Sunset House and Progressive Podcast - The Melodic Sessions by Prototype 202Emergence Mix - Tracks and remixes from Leaving Laurel, Shingo Nakamura, Estiva, Thaylo and moreWelcome back to the Melodic Sessions. As spring arrives the melodic sessions brings an emerging journey of tracks and remixes from Leaving Laurel, Shingo Nakamura, Estiva, Thaylo and more
Leaving Laurel - better days will come
Alberto Hernandez - Skywriting
Wassu - Dusk
Thysma - Feel
hexale - Too Late
Shingo Nakamura - Foggy Morning
Peter Makto - Balearic Flute
Dohko - Samaria
Thaylo- Deep Heart
Estiva - Via Infinita
RIKO and GUGGA - Healing Process
Alex H - Amino
Rodrigo Lapena - Asir (Blood Groove and Kikis Mix)
Steven Weston - You
Awka - When All Becomes Dust2023-04-1900 minMarket DepthA Critical Week of Data out of Asia this WeekWeston Nakamura outlines the key macro data with global macro market implications for this week - as they all stem from the Asia region. Namely - retail sales, industrial production and GDP figures from China (and why China's "fake GDP" figures are nonetheless usefully informative), and Japan CPI at the end of the week, as the country's final inflation reading before the consequential April Bank of Japan meeting.Weston also dives into the recent surge in gold prices, as spot gold nears its all time record high of $2,080 - and how he approaches gold price action as...2023-04-1720 minMarket DepthWho Wins When Markets Fight Policymakers?In this week's roundup of global macro and market developments, Weston Nakamura flags key points from the World Bank & IMF Spring Meetings held in Washington D.C. this week, as IMF projects Asia to contribute to 70% of global growth for this year, Bank of Japan's brand new Governor Ueda and his first comments on policy to his global peers, and a surprising one-on-one meeting between China's central bank head and Fed Chair Powell.Weston also discusses Softbank divesting the last of its Alibaba holdings, and finally, comments on his explosive tweet regarding Warren Buffett's trip to Tokyo...2023-04-1415 minMarket DepthHow I'm Trading The Inflation Data DropAs global markets await the US CPI release for March 2023, Weston Nakamura shares a trade that he has opened this week: Long USDJPY, with the data drop as a potential market moving catalyst. Weston discusses his framework for the trade- including the unique market stance of having last Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls data mixed into the CPI reaction, the rate markets' setup which parallels that of the 2022 Yield Curve Control environment, and broader market positioning.This is an opportunity to follow along with a live trade, as Weston will update in coming episodes accordingly.--2023-04-1212 minMarket DepthWarren Buffet Doubles Down on JapanIn today's Market Depth, Weston Nakamura discusses the Bank of Korea holding rates unchanged (again), a surprise decline in China CPI, as well as falling CPI - and what it may mean for PBOC policy going forward, and the Bank of Japan's first press conference under new leadership with Governor Ueda, and Deputy Governors Uchida and Himino.Weston also discusses Warren Buffet's comments from an interview with Nikkei that Berkshire Hathaway intends to add to their holdings in Japan trading houses. --Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9U2023-04-1118 minMarket DepthA Week of Central Bankers Hiking, Pausing, and LeavingTo wrap up the first week of a new quarter following a tumultuous month of March, Weston Nakamura reviews policy decisions from Reserve Bank of Australia’s pause-and-assess, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s unexpected hawkish 50 basis point hike.Weston also discusses a big development out of Samsung’s preliminary earnings, in which they had announced production cuts in memory chips, and the wide scale implications to the industry worldwide.Finally, Weston gives his initial takeaways right off the heels of retiring Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda’s farewell press conference - in which th...2023-04-0718 minMarket DepthHow Will the Bank of Japan Move Markets?Following up from the last episode of Market Depth “The Most Critical Month for the Bank of Japan is Here” - Weston Nakamura provides a deep dive on currencies, namely the yen. Weston gives a background on what drives the yen directionally and explains why the currency strengthens despite the Bank of Japan’s endless, record-sized bond buying.In addition, Weston reveals his own non-consensus take on the outcome of the upcoming April Bank of Japan policy meeting under a brand new and unknown Governor Ueda (a viewpoint which may surprise many). Lastly, Weston discusses some un...2023-04-0634 minMarket DepthThe Most Critical Month for Bank of Japan and Market Impact Is HereIn this special edition episode of Market Depth, Weston Nakamura presents what lies ahead for a historic and critical month of April 2023 in global financial markets, as leadership change at the Bank of Japan will see the end of Governor Kuroda, the last major central banker of the QE era, and the start of little known incoming Governor Ueda. Weston does a deep dive into the state of Japan investors - the world's largest foreign capital allocators, and their behavioral traits. As uncertainty, volatility and risk builds up by the day as time closes in on Ueda's first meeting...2023-04-0451 minMarket DepthWhat This Wild Month In Markets Has ExposedTo wrap up what was arguably one of the most critical and history shaping months in global markets, Weston Nakamura takes a cross-asset dive into the month of March 2023.What was really behind the collapse in global bank shares? Why are rates behaving with such extreme levels of record volatility? What does the Bank of Japan have to do with all of this?Weston provides a different angle and explanation apart from narratives of US and European bank failures for what really happened in markets this month, and what lies ahead.--2023-03-3135 minMarket DepthBreaking Down The Alibaba Break-UpAlibaba Holdings announces their restructuring into six entities, triggering a surge in Chinese tech shares, and global indices. Weston Nakamura gives his initial takeaways of this monumental surprise development, and the potential implications reaching far beyond China.In addition, Weston discusses the upcoming China PMI release on Friday as a potential market moving catalyst, citing the prior month's reading and subsequent cross-asset market reaction that followed. He also shows why the yuan's price action matters to global markets.Finally, Weston touches on the yen and its price action heading into Japan fiscal year-end later this...2023-03-2912 minMarket DepthDon’t Misread The Bank of JapanFollowing the initial launch of the Market Depth podcast and a few episodes in, Weston Nakamura unveils his new “trading jacket,” and explains the concept of how the making of each episode of Market Depth is approached. Weston then discusses Japan’s February CPI reading, which came down sharply for the first decline in 5 months - and the impact of the governments energy subsidies on inflation.Finally, Weston examines bond flow data to follow up on his previous episodes explaining the record volatility in rates, as well as price action drivers of the yen.--Fo...2023-03-2416 minMarket DepthHedge Funds Blow Up From Rate Volatility Ahead of The FedHeading into a very consequential March FOMC meeting later today, Weston Nakamura examines market positioning - particularly focusing on what the real-world market implications from extreme and unprecedented levels of rate volatility are. Macro hedge funds such as Jupiter are seeing their worst performances ever, while Graticule Asia has shut down as a result of the erratic markets of late.Weston also flags Hong Kong’s HIBOR rate spike, and the Turkish Lira breaking into new lows. Finally, Weston discusses FOMC market expectations, and his views on the post-Fed meeting trading environment....2023-03-2216 minMarket DepthAsia’s Market Reaction To Credit Suisse & UBSMarket Depth: Monday March 20, 2023After a historic and last-minute deal of UBS to take over Credit Suisse, Weston Nakamura examines the first market reaction out of Asia. With rates continuing to fall alongside Credit Suisse AT1 bondholders getting wiped out, it is difficult to discern if macro or bottom up forces may be influencing global bank shares' directional movements. Weston therefore takes a look at specifically HSBC and Standard Chartered stocks listed in Hong Kong for a market read on the weekend's developments.Weston also points to JPY futures as a contributing factor for gold t...2023-03-2012 minMarket DepthA Week of Wild Swings In Bank Stocks & RatesMarket Depth: Friday March 17, 2023--Amidst turmoil in the US regional bank sector, Weston Nakamura takes a look back at a week of highly unusual (if not record setting) price swings across asset classes, including non-US megacap banks indices in Europe and Japan, Credit Suisse shares, bonds and CDS divergences, and DM rates markets - specifically US 2Y Treasury yields, German 2Y bund yields, and Japan 10Y JGB yields.Weston ties all of the erratic movements occurring in assets that should otherwise be liquid and stable back to a common...2023-03-1720 min
Supply ShockMarkets Look Past Silicon Valley Bank's Collapse | Weston NakamuraFollow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Market Depth On YouTube: http://bit.ly/3JKhw8I--On today's episode of On the Margin, Weston Nakamura, the latest addition to the Blockworks team joins the show to discuss his brand new podcast Market Depth! You can follow the links above to listen to the first episode of Market Depth.Following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, Mike and Weston discuss the...2023-03-1650 min
Forward Guidance“Crazy Things” Are Happening In The Japanese Bond Market | Weston NakamuraCheck out Weston Nakamura’s new show, Market Depth (First episode airs on Wednesday March 15): Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3YMXoHm Apple: https://apple.co/3ytqwZ8--Today marks the end of an era for the Bank of Japan and global macro writ large, as Haruhiko Kuroda held his final policy meeting as governor of the Bank of Japan for March 2023, leaving his controversial Yield Curve Control policy unchanged, and maintaining a highly dovish stance as he exits. Governor Kuroda held his final press conference in which his only re...2023-03-1150 minMarket DepthIntroducing: Market DepthIntroducing Market Depth, hosted by Weston Nakamura, a podcast giving you direct access into the Asia Pacific region. Reporting from Tokyo, Weston provides a unique insight into how the region influences global macro forces driving markets all around the world. With his extensive background at both Goldman Sachs and Jefferies specialising in equity & derivative sales, this is the perfect podcast to cut through the noise and get the key takeaways before your trading day starts.--Follow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ S...2023-03-1001 minForward GuidanceBank of Japan Widow-Makes Once Again | Weston NakamuraThe last time Jack Farley had Tokyo-based, global macro markets trader and Bank of Japan aficionado Weston Nakamura on Forward Guidance - the BOJ had shocked the world with a sudden unexpected major change in their Yield Curve Control policy.At the January Monetary Policy Meeting held today, the BOJ once again shocked markets and caused mayhem in bond and FX markets - but this time, by doing nothing. Despite the unprecedented scale of record-setting JGB buying (or, foreign and domestic investor selling pressure), the Bank of Japan delivered a unanimous vote of no...2023-01-1853 minForward GuidanceBank of Japan’s Capitulation Perturbs Global Bond Market | Weston NakamuraThe Bank of Japan (BOJ) has stunned markets by raising the cap on its 10-year government bond and there’s no one Jack would rather speak to than, Weston Nakamura, macro analyst and BOJ aficionado.Weston tells Jack that the BOJ’s decision to allow Japanese government bonds (JGBs) to trade with a higher yield was not, as some westerners might presume, to fight inflation or even necessarily to defend the yen. Rather, the Bank of Japan is seeking to restore order to the JGB market, which has been steadily deteriorating throughout this year.Weston argu...2022-12-2154 min
Real Vision: Finance & InvestingWeston Nakamura on the WTFinance PodcastReal Vision Global Markets Editor Weston Nakamura visits the WTFinance podcast to share with host Anthony Fatseas his unconventional path to a career in markets and to explain his unique methods of analyzing price action. Weston and Anthony also talk about why the Bank of Japan is the most influential central bank of our time and a potential catalyst for further bond market volatility.Watch the video at https://www.youtube.com/@WTFinancepodcast. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices2022-11-301h 04
WTFinanceThe Most Influential Central Bank of our Time with Weston NakamuraInterview recorded - 21st of November, 2022On todays episode of the WTFinance I had the pleasure of speaking with Weston Nakamura, Former Goldman Sachs and Jefferies trader in Tokyo and currently Global Markets Editor at Real Vision. During this conversation we spoke about Weston's unconventional route into finance, unique methods of analysing markets, following capital, the importance of the BoJ & a catalyst for further bond market volatility. I hope you enjoy!Weston has released multiple videos on the BoJ and his trading approach which I have share below - Why Global Ma...2022-11-231h 05
Real Vision: Finance & InvestingWhen There’s No One Left To SellWithin three hours today, S&P 500 futures swung from a 3.9% decline to a 3.9% rally. “It's pretty incredible,” tweeted Jared Dillian shortly after noon, “to watch people get fooled by the market over and over again. It's not hard – when there's no one left to sell, they cover.” Weston Nakamura has a more global perspective on the reversal, noting that the U.K. and the pound as well as Japan and the yen still linger as potential crisis points. Jared raised an interesting point in today’s edition of The Daily Dirtnap: that we’re in “a bubble of bearish sentiment.” West...2022-10-1336 min
Real Vision: Finance & InvestingIt's a Busy Week for Central BankersThe Federal Reserve is just one of 16 central banks making interest-rate decisions this week, but it is the most widely watched monetary policy body in the world. And its current path – errant though it may be – is having a profound effect on the global economy by pushing up the U.S. dollar. The most recent data on the U.S. housing market surprised to the upside, but it’s just one piece of the puzzle. “I like that we got wildly positive homebuilder data,” tweeted Tony Greer today, “but the sector is still trading like it’s petrified of higher yields...2022-09-2134 min
Real Vision PresentsIt’s a Busy Week for Central BankersThe Federal Reserve is just one of 16 central banks making interest-rate decisions this week, but it is the most widely watched monetary policy body in the world. And its current path – errant though it may be – is having a profound effect on the global economy by pushing up the U.S. dollar. The most recent data on the U.S. housing market surprised to the upside, but it’s just one piece of the puzzle. “I like that we got wildly positive homebuilder data,” tweeted Tony Greer today, “but the sector is still trading like it’s petrified of higher yields.” Tony...2022-09-2130 min
Real Vision PresentsHow To Actually Trade The Yen w/ Weston NakamuraWeston Nakamura is accepting a challenge from the Real Vision Community in the aftermath of his previous piece, “The Landing of the Rising Yen?” RV Members want to understand the different strategies for expressing Tokyo-based Weston Nakamura’s thesis about the Japanese yen.
Getting back to his trading roots and looking at various instruments and structures, some of which are highly unconventional and don’t even touch foreign exchange markets, Weston explains exactly how to get directional exposure to the yen in the context of personal risk tolerance, time horizons, and investing objectives.
This is not specific trading advice but is part...2022-09-0125 min
Real Vision PresentsThe Land Of The Rising Yen?The Japanese yen was the worst-performing major currency against the U.S. dollar in the first half of 2022, as investors worldwide, from global macro hedge funds to Japanese retail day-traders, piled into an extremely crowded “hawkish Fed versus dovish BoJ policy divergence” trade: Short the yen.
July’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting might have changed all that. Real Vision’s Tokyo-based global markets editor Weston Nakamura made a “long JPY” call heading into that FOMC meeting.
In a comprehensive follow-up commentary, Weston explains the mechanics behind the strongest rally in the yen since March 2020 by analyzing yen futures and options acti...2022-08-1628 min
Real Vision PresentsA “Fed-less” Bank of Japan & European Central BankThe Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank will hold their respective July policy announcements on the same day - while the Fed is in its pre-FOMC quiet period, providing an opportunity to see what policy changes and policy divergence between two of the largest major central banks looks like without the Fed.
Real Vision’s Global Markets Editor Weston Nakamura lays out the market picture through the lens of the euro and the yen, both of which have significantly weakened against the US dollar, but potentially tell a different story against one another.
Weston also examines futures markets on...2022-07-2211 min
Real Vision PresentsHow the Bank of Japan Blew Up Global Markets in 2022The Bank of Japan began 2022 in “forgotten obscurity,” but it’s now at the center of some of the worst cross-asset market conditions on record.
Real Vision Global Markets Editor Weston Nakamura first alerted investors to the #BankofJapan’s policy divergence in January 2022.
Tokyo-based Nakamura looks back at the historic first six months of the year through the lens of the BoJ and its controversial “yield curve control” effort.
This is the only major central bank still actively easing. Indeed, its peers are aggressively tightening to fight global inflation. And the Japanese yen reflects this divergence, plummeting to multi-decade lows.
The BoJ cont...2022-07-1453 min
Real Vision PresentsWestON Recession: Rate Cycle & Bond Market Deep DiveWeston Nakamura breaks down Raoul Pal's discussion with Jeff Moore, who oversees part of the $1 trillion Fidelity Investments bond portfolio. Today's WestON Recession will be a deep dive into the rate cycle & the bond market.
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Thanks for watching Raoul Pal's Adventures In Crypto on Real Vision Finance!
✅ Subscribe to our channel now for more videos like this one: http://rvt...2022-05-1317 min
Real Vision PresentsWhy Did Markets Rally After a Fed Rate Hike?Why did global equities stage their biggest rally since November 2020 upon the official launch of a monetary tightening cycle at the March 2022 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee? Why was this decisive risk-on move in stocks led by the tech sector, as front-end bond yields surged, curves collapsed, and dot plots adjusted? And why are the vast majority of market commentators confused, with no consensus explanation forming for this indiscriminate demand for shares as the Fed finally moves off the zero bound? Weston Nakamura explains the sustained upside in global equity markets in the aftermath of Fed Chair Jerome...2022-04-0943 min
Real Vision PresentsMeme Commodities, Central Banks & Crypto with @Kyla ScanlonKyla Scanlon is a US-based independent content creator and curator with an expanding social media profile built on both short- and long-form TikTok, Instagram, and YouTube videos as well as extensive written work on her newsletter, her Substack, and her blog. Known for her ability to distill market moves and current events in an analytical but humorous way, she both informs and entertains her audience. Himself a content creator and curator, Real Vision’s Weston Nakamura talks to Kyla about the creative process, the challenges they face, and their respective visions for the future of financial education. In a conversation as...2022-03-1639 min
Real Vision PresentsTrading Geopolitical Risk Part 2In part two of his series on trading geopolitical risk, Weston Nakamura reviews his trading activity over the last several weeks of geopolitics-driven global markets. Weston, an experienced institutional and individual listed derivatives trader, shares his method and his rationale for specific trades. He provides comprehensive breakdowns of thematic moves on single stocks, and he goes deep on macro expressions on US Treasury and crude oil futures.
This is the follow-up to Weston’s previous video “How To (Not) Trade Geopolitical Risk,” about trading markets amid the crisis Eastern Europe and the corresponding volatility for global markets.
Part one of the se...2022-03-0830 min
Real Vision: Finance & InvestingHow to (and not to) Trade Geopolitical RiskThe crisis that had erupted in Ukraine over the past week, as Russian forces had launched their invasion to worldwide condemnation and multilateral sovereign opposition, had reminded all market participants that geopolitical headline risk is inescapable. Be it long-term investors, speculative traders, financial exchanges, corporates, central banks or policy makers - nobody is exempt from exposure to major geopolitical risk, regardless of asset class or region. Weston Nakamura has proactively traded, analyzed and advised on a wide array of market moving geopolitical events, and provides his general guidelines and principles on trading geopolitical headline risk. And while no two...2022-02-2833 min
Real Vision PresentsHow to (and not to) Trade Geopolitical RiskThe crisis that had erupted in Ukraine over the past week, as Russian forces had launched their invasion to worldwide condemnation and multilateral sovereign opposition, had reminded all market participants that geopolitical headline risk is inescapable. Be it long-term investors, speculative traders, financial exchanges, corporates, central banks or policy makers - nobody is exempt from exposure to major geopolitical risk, regardless of asset class or region. Weston Nakamura has proactively traded, analyzed and advised on a wide array of market moving geopolitical events, and provides his general guidelines and principles on trading geopolitical headline risk. And while no two events...2022-02-2630 min
Real Vision: Finance & InvestingWhat Are Markets Telling Us About Russia s Invasion of Ukraine?The crisis in Eastern Europe has escalated to new levels, as Russian President Vladimir Putin authorized the deployment of troops to rebel-held areas of Ukraine. Prices for energy commodities, including crude oil and natural gas, spiked on the news. And wheat, a key export from the region, is also rising. Weston Nakamura joins Ash Bennington for a look at the geopolitical situation through the lens of global markets in today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing. Cross-asset analysis, as Weston notes, is the best way for investors to understand what is a complex situation, on the ground in Europe as we...2022-02-2331 min
Real Vision: Finance & InvestingHow The Bank of Japan Uses Media to Test PoliciesIn the previous part 1 video of Weston Nakamura’s series on the Bank of Japan, Weston explains how BOJ Yield Curve Control works, and discusses the implications of being the only major central bank left who claims to still provide highly accommodative monetary policy in 2022. In this part two video, Weston shares his long-running theory on "BOJ Press Tests,” conducted behind the scenes by the central bank, carried out by major financial media outlets, and intended to get a read on market sentiment before a potentially permanent, irreversible policy error is made - as the Bank of Japan currently work...2022-02-2049 min
Real Vision PresentsHow The Bank of Japan Uses Media to Test PoliciesIn the previous part 1 video of Weston Nakamura’s series on the Bank of Japan, Weston explains how BOJ Yield Curve Control works, and discusses the implications of being the only major central bank left who claims to still provide highly accommodative monetary policy in 2022.
In this part two video, Weston shares his long-running theory on "BOJ Press Tests,” conducted behind the scenes by the central bank, carried out by major financial media outlets, and intended to get a read on market sentiment before a potentially permanent, irreversible policy error is made - as the Bank of Japan currently works to c...2022-02-1846 min
Real Vision PresentsWhy Global Markets are Addicted to the Bank of JapanInflation is rampant globally, and the world’s major central banks are all taking decisive measures to tighten policy in their respective ways, with the exception of one major developed market central bank: the Bank of Japan. Weston Nakamura is based in Tokyo, Japan and has been monitoring, analyzing and trading the BOJ throughout Governor Kuroda’s controversial tenure, and explains how the Bank of Japan’s Yield Curve Control policy has enabled the other major central banks and governments from making tough decisions and allowed for them to keep monetary and fiscal policy loose by “exporting low yields.”
Weston also warns...2022-02-1137 minReal Vision: Finance & InvestingPost-Trade Analysis: Long Position SONY/Short XLKWeston Nakamura closes his long Sony Corp. (NYSE: SONY)/short Technology Select SPDR Fund (NYSE: XLK) market-neutral pair trade, as SONY shares rallied following an intraday trading halt on news of its acquisition of Bungie for $3.6 billion Weston shares his thought process and overall assessment. Though it was a net-profitable trade in an environment of elevated global equity volatility, Weston’s frank self-evaluation is that this was a flawed structure. He categorizes this win as “right for the wrong reasons.” In other words, he got lucky. Weston expands on the importance of applying the framework of being “right/wrong, for the...2022-02-0615 min
Real Vision PresentsPost-Trade Analysis: Long Position SONY/Short XLKWeston Nakamura closes his long Sony Corp. (NYSE: SONY)/short Technology Select SPDR Fund (NYSE: XLK) market-neutral pair trade, as SONY shares rallied following an intraday trading halt on news of its acquisition of Bungie for $3.6 billion Weston shares his thought process and overall assessment. Though it was a net-profitable trade in an environment of elevated global equity volatility, Weston’s frank self-evaluation is that this was a flawed structure. He categorizes this win as “right for the wrong reasons.” In other words, he got lucky. Weston expands on the importance of applying the framework of being “right/wrong, for the righ...2022-02-0313 min
Real Vision PresentsTrading Volatility Around Hawkish FOMC MeetingWatch Weston Nakamura trade markets in real time around the January Federal Open Market Committee meeting, one of the most pivotal catalysts in global macro since the start of the pandemic era. Weston shares his recent options trades on eurodollars, the VIX, and Treasuries, failures as well as success. And he explains his broader processes and strategies and imparts some lessons for the future. Come for the trades, and stay for the heads up on the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield as it approaches an overlooked but dangerous level that could trigger a sharp, sudden sell-off in U.S. and...2022-01-2827 min
Real Vision PresentsExchanging Lanes: Are We Misreading Inflation?Brad Snyder and Weston Nakamura, a trucker and a trader, are back with Exchanging Lanes to challenge conventional macro data analysis, using real-world, real-time, on-the-ground observations and applying differentiated takeaways. In this episode, Weston and Brad look ahead and explore where disinflation or deflation risk may arise with a focus on inventories. They see massive overcapacity of warehousing in the longer term and offer a non-consensus angle for a potential data misread in consumption trends and inflation drivers for the immediate term. Follow Weston on Twitter for charts and up-to-date market commentary @acrossthespread. And watch the previous episode of Exchanging...2022-01-1417 min
Real Vision PresentsA 2022 NY Resolution for Bitcoin FollowersA hung over Weston Nakamura starts off 2022 with a market update on BTC, and the price action that occurred during the New Year countdown. He also suggests a 2022 New Year resolution, particularly to US-based BTC traders, investors and observers: rather than defaulting to BTCUSD, watch BTC in denominated in another currency, since Bitcoin is not an American asset, it is a global asset.
Watch the latest video with Weston Nakamura, Jim Bianco and Ash Bennington on Real Vision’s Crypto Unwrapped to end the 2021 trading year for BTC here: https://youtu.be/bOyrgDEybKI
For market updates, follow Weston on Twitter @ac...2022-01-0104 minReal Vision: Finance & InvestingFollowing the Money as End of Holidays NearsDB-Dec27,2021:What put a floor under global markets last week may not be what you think. Weston Nakamura provides an overview of the global and cross-asset markets in the last week of the year. Nakamura explains that regional market holiday schedules matter because they determine the makeup of active market participants. He then talks about the unprecedented volatility in the Turkish Lira having rallied 50% from all time lows after President Erdogan unveiled his controversial new economic policy to protect depositors against FX risk. He also makes the case that the upside in global macro risk assets could have been...2021-12-2835 min
Real Vision PresentsFollowing the Money as End of Holidays NearsLong
Weston Nakamura provides an overview of the global markets and cross-asset markets in the last week of the year. Nakamura explains that regional market holiday schedules matter, as it determines what the makeup of active market participants are. Nakamura then talks about the unprecedented volatility in the Turkish Lira, having rallied 50% in two days off of all time lows as President Erdogan unveiled his controversial new economic policy to protect depositors against FX risk. He also makes the case that the upside in global macro risk assets could have been driven by the breakneck reversal in the lira, following...2021-12-2833 min
Real Vision PresentsDeveloping Debt: What Does the Evergrande Default Mean?The property sector in China has been under a government-imposed, forced deleveraging that has gripped global markets over the past year. In recent weeks, defaults from several indebted property developers have hit one by one - the most material and symbolic of which is “Levergrande” (3333.HK China Evergrande Group), the world’s most indebted property developer with over $300 billion in liabilities. They failed to make interest payments on two USD bonds, and thus has finally been declared as in default. In part 1 of this two-part series, Weston Nakamura presents a differentiated framework approach on Levergrande, the Chinese property sector, and the in...2021-12-1531 min