Shows
Tea and CrumpetsDear JeromeIn the first half, we look at the OBBBA, and what its passage may mean for investors, as well as for the government’s balance sheet. Debt from baseline projection of 154% of GDP to upwards of 200% of GDP with the OBBBA. Deficits from around 6% of GDP to over 7% with the OBBBA. Despite the ballooning deficits and debt, markets are celebrating the prospect of fiscal stimulus, as well as favorable tax treatments on investment as well as other corporate goodies. In the second half, we discuss President Trump’s penmanship as it relates to his...2025-07-1544 min
Tea and CrumpetsBlack EyeIn the first half, we examine the (rumored) literal fisticuffs in D.C., and the implications of the proposed “Big, Beautiful Bill” on taxes, spending, the deficit, interest rates, and the dollar. We discuss the timing of tax cuts versus spending cuts, especially in light of the employment data we have seen since 2022, wherein: Private sector job growth -> a little over 1% cumulatively. Public sector job growth -> over 7% cumulatively. In the second half, we discuss the market’s rapid rebound from its April nadir and juxtapose returns (and valuations) for different parts of the equity market. Is it...2025-06-1740 min
Tea and CrumpetsThe Swamp Always WinsIn this episode, we have a no-holds-barred conversation featuring Kalee Kreider, a seasoned political strategist and expert in climate policy. Together, we dig into the uncomfortable truths about markets, politics, and the economic pressures facing everyday Americans. From election forecasts and the appeal of government gridlock to the harsh realities of student debt, the conversation is unscripted, unfiltered, and unexpectedly funny. We explore why investors often prefer a slow-moving Congress, how middle-income families are still reeling from financial burdens nobody talks about, and why economic narratives need more honesty and a lot less spin. 2025-05-151h 03
Tea and CrumpetsFace OffIn the first half, we discuss the showdown between the U.S. and China on tariffs. While the headlines have been stolen by who is calling whom first, we look into the effect the tariffs are already having on container ship volumes, and what implications that has for the rest of the supply chain, and the economy. Tariffs are just starting to hit consumers as they look to buy online, with the tariff exceeding the purchase price in some cases. While there is optimism over a resolution, historically trade agreements have involved lengthy negotiations, and we are weeks away...2025-04-3040 min
Tea and CrumpetsWinging ItIn the first half, we discuss Liberation Day, the violent reaction of, initially, the stock market and, subsequently, the bond market. In terms of the bond market, we look at the frantic trading from last week that ultimately forced the administration to announce a 90-day pause on most tariffs. Who holds U.S. debt? The answer might surprise you: Total debt - $34 trillion Domestic holders - $26 trillion Japan - $1.1 trillion China - $820 billion (though may be understated as offshore entities, i.e., other countries, are likely being used as well) Other countries - $5.3 trillion In the second...2025-04-1637 min
Tea and CrumpetsLiberation DayIn the first half, we discuss the imminent arrival of “Liberation Day”, and why uncertainty over tariffs is causing consternation to consumer, business, and investor confidence. We look at the most recent inflation data from the government and examine the widely divergent inflation expectations based on political affiliation. We also tie this to the likelihood of further rate cuts and the necessity to drive rates lower as sizable government debt is due to be refinanced in 2025. In the second half, we (finally) discuss what has been a challenging quarter for stocks, especially the Magnificent Seven: In the...2025-04-0236 min
Tea and CrumpetsCanadian, Judge, and JuryIn the first half, Will and Adam discuss the rapid deterioration in consumer sentiment and how it is cutting across both economic and political divides, albeit to differing degrees. Some sentiment indicators, especially concerns over job loss, are at levels normally seen during a recession, in part due to the uncertainty over tariffs with large trading partners like Canada. Another concern is spending cuts. We look past the headlines to see that cuts have not yet taken hold, though with 85% of job growth in 2024 attributable to government spending, we could be in for a volatile transition period as a...2025-03-2038 min
Tea and CrumpetsThe Rest is GeographyWith headlines versus earnings moving markets, we look at the perceptions and realities influencing investors (and speculators). In the first half, we discuss the sharp decline in consumer confidence and spike in inflation expectations, both of which represent challenges to continued equity market strength. We also look at how the bond market (and the Federal Reserve) are responding, and how the continued on again/off again/on again tariff headlines are causing consternation to consumers and investors. In the second half, we delve into the perception versus reality of government efforts to cut waste and i...2025-02-2837 min
Tea and CrumpetsTrump Tariff Tourette’s ThreatsWith tariffs in the news, we sift through the torrent of headlines coming from both sides of the border and beyond. In the first half, we look at the breaking news on tariffs, with an 11th hour agreement with Mexico giving a pause to the proposed 25% duty on imports. We also look at why Canada may be more reticent to strike a deal, and what the bigger objectives may be. Is it all about oil and inflation, or are we looking at a 21st century version of the Monroe Doctrine aimed at China? We also break down h...2025-02-0538 min
Tea and CrumpetsI Can Hear You ClownsAfter a holiday hiatus, we welcome 2025 with a look at what worked in 2024 and what that may mean for this year. One thing that did not work: forecasts. The Fed cut rates fewer times than predicted, and we discuss the recent pivot toward a more hawkish tone, which is part of the reason for the increase in yields on longer bonds. Those higher yields are stressing consumers and businesses, not to mention grinding mortgage activity to a halt. We look at the implications of higher rates and compare some of the small business stress we are seeing i...2025-01-1534 min
Tea and CrumpetsDefiling GravityWe take a wicked look upward, where both unidentified drones and market valuations reside. We also discuss the upcoming Fed meeting, investor sentiment, and the outlook for corporate margins (and employment) as AI gains greater adoption. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.2024-12-1836 min
Tea and CrumpetsGamma Claus is Coming to TownWe discuss the recent mania around levered ETFs and the market mechanics that make these so volatile. We also take our first look at investor response to Trump’s win and what we think some of the over (and under) reactions have been so far, and what the true implications of changes in fiscal and regulatory policy may mean. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.2024-11-2735 min
Tea and CrumpetsUndecided BoatersThis week, Will and Adam discuss how markets typically respond to the election cycle, and the importance of staying committed to the long-term view when it comes to investing. We also do a deep, some may say submarine, dive on the phenomenon causing some of the extreme weather we are seeing, and compare this type of explosion and its effects to how the explosion of post-Covid stimulus has affected inflation, stocks, and bonds. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.2024-10-2837 min
Tea and CrumpetsNot Chicken AnymoreWe recap the historically strong year-to-date performance of equities and compare Q3 versus the first half of the year. We also delve into the potential market implications of the upcoming presidential elections as well as the ongoing (and escalating) conflict in the Middle East. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.2024-10-0844 min
Tea and CrumpetsPodcast or podcats?Special guest Kalee Kreider joins us to discuss the recent presidential debate, its impact on the November election, and all things political. We also explore the impact of broad trends like inflation and AI on the election, the economy, and markets. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.2024-09-171h 08
Tea and CrumpetsWe Need These JobsWill and Adam discuss the large downward revision in job creation and analyze its causes and implications. With the Fed meeting in Jackson Hole, they review its current stance on interest rates versus market expectations, as well as the divergent paths the market has historically taken around rate cutting cycles. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.2024-08-2733 min
Tea and CrumpetsHiatus OverWill and Adam return to provide insight on recent market tumult. We look at the causes (recession concerns, Japanese bank policy) and the effects (sharp decline, quick rebound, spike in volatility). We compare what is normal about today’s environment versus the anomalies that cause us some concern. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com. 2024-08-1241 min
Tea and CrumpetsHappy BirthdayWe wish Formidable a happy 11th birthday, though the more eccentric among us may say “get well soon”, instead. Regardless, we look back on our approach to college planning and the merits of trade schools in the era of AI. We also examine AI’s broader implications for inflation, wages, and stocks, both those that area direct beneficiaries (like the Magnificent Seven) and those that have, so far, been left behind from a performance perspective, where we see opportunity. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.2024-07-0341 min
Tea and CrumpetsSaul GrippoWill and Adam review the new Bearcats flavored Grippo chips, and compare them to the Fed’s approach on inflation. We take a look at what the lack of movement in oil prices is telling us about inflation and the economy, and how higher interest rates are (or, more accurately, are not) constricting some measures of financial conditions. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.2024-05-2439 min
Tea and CrumpetsThere’s No Way Wainscott Will Approve This Title We discuss the fluid situation in the Middle East, its impact on oil, and, ultimately, its importance as a key stumbling block on the Fed’s path to 2% inflation. The changing expectations regarding Fed rate cuts and how those should (theoretically) affect valuations for stocks are also key topics, as are some of the recent divergences in the historical relationships between things like gold and real rates. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.2024-04-2235 min
Tea and CrumpetsTop MenWill and Adam discuss the potential for broader equity market participation, as well as the strange dynamics affecting the smaller cap indices. We also deconstruct the latest Fed minutes, and what the Fed’s changing stance on inflation may mean for interest rates, stocks, risk, and housing. Finally, we explore whether one can forge their own signature, if plant-based mashed potatoes is redundant, and the merits of Kenny Rogers’ “good food quickly” approach to chicken. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.2024-03-2836 min
Tea and CrumpetsMugabe ShackIn episode 66, Will and Adam discuss the Fed’s shifting stance on its inflation target and the implications for consumers and markets. We also examine the diverging fortunes of the Magnificent Seven and compare today’s market conditions with those of the early 2022 peak as well as the 2000 peak. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.2024-03-1243 min
Tea and CrumpetsI Choo-Choo-Choose YouWe welcome back special guest Kalee Kreider, president of Ridgely Walsh and former communications director for Vice President Al Gore. With November fast approaching, we get her take on the candidates, what states might determine the outcome, and why “double haters” may be the deciding factor. We also evaluate the implications of the outcome in terms of both foreign and domestic policy. Finally, we take a look at a few under-the-radar Supreme Court cases with significant implications for the functioning of the Federal bureaucracy in 2024 and beyond. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagl...2024-02-2052 min
Tea and CrumpetsTop Hats and Hash BrownsIn episode 64, Will and Adam discuss the winnowing of the Magnificent Seven to somewhere between three and four, and the exorbitant valuations on the shrinking number of winners. We also look at the conundrum faced by businesses dealing with pushback from consumers on rising prices while at the same time increasing demands (not to mention government mandates) on wages. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.2024-02-1039 min
Tea and CrumpetsNvidiotsWill and Adam return from a hiatus with the S&P 500 at an all-time high. They recap what drove returns in 2023 (index flows, zero-day options, the Magnificent Seven) and what expectations are baked into valuations at current levels (above-average earnings growth and six Fed rate cuts). They also juxtapose the divergent growth expectations the low price of oil seems to be indicating in spite of elevated geopolitical tensions. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com. 2024-01-2451 min
Tea and CrumpetsPassive ObserverWe revisit the risks associated with passive investing as the Magnificent Seven stocks become even more unmoored from the rest of the S&P 500. We also analyze the likelihood of the Fed engineering a soft landing, why the market may have celebrated a win on inflation too early, and how we are trying to navigate through this challenging environment. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.2023-11-2236 min
Tea and CrumpetsUnionized BaristasWe talk about the ongoing shift in labor market dynamics and its implications for inflation going forward, which could be “higher-er for longer-er”. The market’s recent rebound, fueled by hopes of a soft landing and a bounce in the most shorted stocks, is also discussed. We also look at concentration of the index in a handful of stocks and compare recent earnings for some of the tech titans to the rosy projections for next year. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com. 2023-11-0939 min
Tea and CrumpetsBackwards PantsWill and Adam provide their perspective on the market impact of events in Israel and Gaza, which come at a perilous time from a market perspective with yields reaching psychologically important levels. We also discuss how flows into passive funds have had an outsized impact on the so-called Magnificent Seven stocks and juxtapose their performance (and valuation) versus the rest of the market. Finally, we look at some real-time data on what is happening for economic canaries like shipping and small business. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.c...2023-10-2743 min
Tea and CrumpetsOne-person RiotIn the midst of typical seasonal weakness, we examine the causes for the stock market’s recent volatility, as well as the unprecedented moves in the bond market. We also look at oil’s ability to help the economy to a Goldilocks scenario, how labor unrest is affecting inflation and consumer sentiment, and whether one person can riot. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.2023-10-0636 min
Tea and CrumpetsOctoberfestAfter enjoying the festivities, including a fantastic caricature, we delve into the underappreciated risks associated with both zero-day options and put writing, given the launch of a new ETF that combines the two. We examine the market’s recent reaction to CPI data and the potential for inflation to re-accelerate with soaring oil prices and wage pressure from the current UAW strike. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.2023-09-1838 min
Tea and CrumpetsUpside Down and BackwardsWe parse Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech and assess the odds (and timing) of further rate hikes versus a pivot. We also examine the impact on the global economy of China’s weakening property market. We conclude with a look at the recent weakness in U.S. consumer stocks and debate whether expectations for megacap tech earnings are too high in the wake of this week’s market reaction to everyone’s favorite AI stock. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.2023-08-2937 min
Tea and CrumpetsDaring Is Darling without the “L”We return from hiatus with a recap of the happenings in emerging markets, including Chinese property problems and Argentinian elections. We juxtapose the echo boom in tech names with the so-called dot com darlings, and look at how those high-flying companies fared in terms of sales growth (outstanding) and investment returns (dreadful). We close with the odds of and implications for a pivot by the Fed. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.2023-08-1539 min
Tea and CrumpetsBarn Cat DramaWe welcome special guest Kalee Kreider, president of Ridgely Walsh and former communications director for Vice President Al Gore. She offers a unique perspective on the recent debt ceiling resolution, as well as the broader implications of “Bidenomics”. She, Will, and Adam discuss the implications of fiscal policy on the Fed, inflation, and the political landscape for 2024. We close with a conversation on the emerging power of the executive branch, and its supporting bureaucracy, in the wake of a dysfunctional legislative branch, and the role a changing Supreme Court may have. It’s like eight grade civics, only entertaining. ...2023-06-2153 min
Tea and CrumpetsHead for the Hills?We discuss the continuing game of chicken being played over the debt ceiling, and why any ultimate resolution to increase the government’s borrowing ability is a negative for bond yields and equities. Also, you cannot have a podcast in 2023 without talking about AI, and we explore its impact on equity market returns so far this year (positive) as well the murkier longer-term impact on things like inflation and unemployment. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.2023-05-2537 min
Tea and CrumpetsKneeknockersWe discuss recent comments by the Fed and bank industry luminaries as it relates to whether the current bank crisis is closer to the beginning or the end. We also delve into the continuing divergence between earnings expectations and interest rate expectations, and why this is the most important problem markets must solve. Finally, we cover the simple math behind inflation and assess our chances of getting back to the Fed’s 2% target in one piece. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.2023-05-1236 min
Tea and CrumpetsMusical Electric ChairsTechnology investors keep dancing as the NASDAQ enters a bull market. We compare the performance of the largest names in the index versus the rest and evaluate the reasons why the performance of the average stock has been so lackluster. We also delve into the seemingly irreconcilable difference between the outlook for earnings and interest rates, as well as the ongoing fallout higher rates have caused for the banking industry. We close with our opinion on the market’s relative upside versus downside based on the positioning of both retail investors and institutional quant funds. Learn more ab...2023-05-0143 min
Tea and CrumpetsStrong Conviction Wile E. CoyoteWe delve deeply into pun-ditry, as well as a continued post-mortem of Silicon Valley Bank. Will casts doubts over Adam’s ability to be a bond guy (or girl), and they also discuss the Fed’s strong conviction, Wile E. Coyote-style stretching of the economic rubber band and the potential implications of its snap back in the event the Fed is forced to pivot. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.2023-04-1140 min
Tea and CrumpetsBanking, From Assyria to Silicon Valley (via Dothan) Will and Adam provide an update on the continued fallout in the banking sector, including what it means for consumers and markets. The surprising rebound in technology stocks despite a nascent banking crisis is also analyzed and compared to what we experienced during the financial crisis. We also debate what the opposite of inverted is and why it is important to our outlook for the economy. For even more, click here to read Will’s comments on Silicon Valley Bank in Barron’s. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formi...2023-03-2738 min
Tea and CrumpetsToo Hot for ForbesWe discuss the topic on everyone’s mind, Silicon Valley Bank, and delve into the reasons for its failure and potential consequences. Who’s to blame, who’s not, and what comes next? Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.2023-03-1436 min
Tea and CrumpetsThe New Nas-quackWe look at the self-proclaimed new Nasdaq, a.k.a., Ark, as emblematic of the ferocious return of speculation in 2023. We also look at the behavior of meme stock speculators and debate the role the Fed may or may not in fomenting speculation as it (and we) debate how restrictive policy is versus how restrictive it needs to be. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.2023-02-1036 min
Tea and CrumpetsMolotov PolicyWill and Adam discuss the challenges faced by the Fed as it sees financial conditions easing despite its efforts to restrict monetary policy. We also analyze the health of the consumer in the world of high interest rates, low savings rates, and increasing levels of debt. The unprecedented collapse in money supply growth, and the recent spike in velocity, are addressed as well. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.2023-01-3039 min
Tea and Crumpets2022: The Beyond Meat GrinderWe review a challenging 2022, capped off by a December to forget for those looking for a Santa rally. The causes (Fed policy, rampant retail speculation) and effects (multiple compression, sizable capital losses) are analyzed, along with some perspective on how we are preparing for 2023. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.2022-12-3038 min
Tea and CrumpetsEnthusiastic MehWe give an enthusiastic meh to 2022, an anomalous year in so many ways: stocks and bonds both lower, the Fed raising rates at a historic pace, and geopolitical turmoil. We also delve into the Fed’s inflation versus recession conundrum, the consequences of capital once again having a cost, and what 2023 may hold based on our top-down process. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.2022-12-0939 min
Tea and CrumpetsCrypto Meteor ShowerWe review the tumult in the crypto markets in the wake of FTX’s demise. The markets resilience in the face of crypto, geopolitical, and inflation headwinds is another topic of discussion. We also look at the technical indicators pointing toward a recession here in the U.S., as well as the market implications of a Fed pivot. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.2022-11-2135 min
Tea and CrumpetsPivot to DivotIn the wake of the release of the Fed’s minutes, we discuss relevant acronyms (FIFA, NATO, FUBAR) as well as a few four-letter words the hawkish comments elicited from markets. We compare the minutes to the tenor of the press conference, the likely paths inflation might follow, and the implications for equity valuations and earning. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.2022-11-0441 min
Tea and CrumpetsHeartbeatDoes the market have one? We discuss the recent signs of market life despite what seems like the Fed’s desire to raise rates no matter the collateral damage. We also explore the parody that is risk parity, and the danger it poses to pension funds. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.2022-10-2136 min
Tea and CrumpetsFrom the ChairWe look at the historically woeful start to 2022 for both stocks and bonds and explain why these coinciding declines are causing stress in the financial system, as well for investors. We also analyze the efficacy of the Fed’s toolkit to fight inflation and how rate increases typically flow through the economy. Finally, we describe how the market has repriced earnings and illustrate how the numerator and denominator of the P/E ratio are affecting valuations. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.2022-10-0636 min
Tea and CrumpetsSub-Optimal Means You Are Not SweatingAre recent comments by the Fed inspiring or perspiring? We discuss the sub-optimal setup for the European Central Bank, what is helping (and hurting) the case for a reversion to sub-2% inflation domestically, and what it means for markets over the near- and medium-term. Also, public service announcements on preventative health care and meme stocks. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.2022-09-1338 min
Tea and CrumpetsWhack-a-MoronWe look at the situation facing the Fed as the market anxiously awaits comments from Jackson Hole. With student debt forgiveness and the misnamed Inflation Reduction Act renewing fiscal stimulus, can the Fed engineer a soft landing? We also analyze the divergence between the favorable technical setup versus stretched valuations. Finally, we recap the most recent round of meme stock mania which, thankfully, we watched from the sidelines. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.2022-08-2439 min
Tea and CrumpetsAugust 32ndIn a market that makes about as much sense as August having an extra day, we examine the reasons for the strong equity returns in July and the incongruent views the market currently has on rates versus earnings expectations. We also discuss the squeeze consumers are feeling as savings rates decline and credit card debt expands. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.2022-08-0842 min
Tea and CrumpetsHead Fake or Head Butt?After a brief hiatus, Will and Adam return to talk about the market’s welcome recent rebound. Is it a head fake or will the bad news is good news narrative continue? Higher inflation and restrictive Fed policy have the potential to head butt investors, but the technical set-up remains favorable. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.2022-07-2234 min
Tea and CrumpetsUnremarkable EdgeAre equity markets still in the danger zone? Join Will, Adam, and Kenny Loggins (well, two of the three) as they discuss the brief bear market, what is fueling the recent rebound, and whether we are in for more turbulence. Can the Fed engineer a soft landing, or will it crash and burn? Be our wingman as we explore these topics and more. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.2022-05-3140 min
Tea and CrumpetsFrowned UponInvestors are certainly frowning upon the Fed’s recent comments. We explore large caps trading like small caps, how inflation is affecting consumer behavior and how companies are responding. We also delve into prior periods of market distress to look for signs as to how far along the current drawdown may be. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.2022-05-2041 min
Tea and CrumpetsWhole Grain, Gluten FreeThe market’s recent selloff is in focus. Can the Fed be seen as slightly accommodative while still getting a handle on inflation, or is that just as impossible as our title? What are the effects of the war in Ukraine and Chinese lockdowns on inflation, and how big are they as building blocks of the current wall of worry? We also discuss the parts of our investment strategy that become more important in this environment. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.2022-05-0439 min
Tea and CrumpetsTalk A Lot and Do A Little?Will the Fed do little, or is under too much political pressure to just talk about raising rates to fight inflation? Is China’s “zero Covid” policy really an inflation fighting tool? What explains the divergence between institutional and retail investor behavior, and are they considering the tough lessons the market taught us in the 1970s and late 1990s? We address these questions and more. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.2022-04-1531 min
Tea and CrumpetsWhat would Glenn Frey Do?Should the Fed take it easy, or is the heat on? We explore the Fed’s recent meeting and the market’s reaction, not to mention the mounting inflation pressures consumers are feeling. We also discuss the implications of the ongoing crisis in Ukraine as well as China’s burgeoning Covid lockdowns. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.2022-03-1940 min
Tea and CrumpetsMadman or Madmen?We provide an update on the current crisis in Ukraine, focusing on its effect on inflation as well as equity and fixed income markets. We look at historical analogs and debate what, if any, effect the conflict may have as it relates to the Fed’s efforts to tame inflation. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.2022-03-0437 min
Tea and CrumpetsWho DeyWe provide predictions on the Super Bowl, which should be heeded, given Will’s accurate NASDAQ premonition; we discuss the drawdown and our analysis on the reasons for it. We also address the bifurcation between the performance of the “average” stock and the index, as well as the likelihood and consequences of the Fed meeting its stated rate rise regime. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.2022-02-1137 min
Tea and CrumpetsFedi Mind TrickWe discuss the Fed’s hawkish pivot and whether it is rooted in reality or an effort to use its words to convince the market it is serious about inflation. We also look back to prior tightening cycles as a frame of reference for potential equity market weakness, as well as exploring the omicron variant’s effect on society, supply chains, and the economy more broadly. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.2022-01-1439 min
Tea and CrumpetsTransitory IntransigenceWill and Adam discuss the market’s reaction to the last big event of the year, i.e., the Fed’s December meeting. We also try to discern what its stance tells us about the prospects for growth, inflation, and the omicron variant. We also explore the structural reasons inflation might decline despite the shrinking pool of labor, as well as the widening chasm between the performance of the stock market and that of the individual stocks of which it is comprised. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.2021-12-1641 min
Tea and CrumpetsTechnical DifficultiesAfter a brief hiatus due to technical difficulties, Will and Adam return to a market fraught with the same. We explore how index performance masks the performance of the average stock, not to mention how the U.S. has diverged from every other market. We also examine the Fed’s shift from its transitory narrative, debate whether proposed tapering is likely bark or bite, and end with an analysis of the Biden administration’s curiously active November, especially against the backdrop of the Omicron variant. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visi...2021-12-0833 min
Tea and CrumpetsGo Bearcats?With football mania sweeping Cincinnati, we talk about some other manias that are helping lift markets to all-time highs. We also juxtapose the most recent monetary policy decisions of the Fed and Bank of England and how each reflects a slightly variant view of the variant. Finally, we head down the rabbit hole to talk COVID, cryptocurrencies, and oil. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.2021-11-0640 min
Tea and CrumpetsJekyll and Hyde, and Mad Max, and Chicken LittleWe return with a new format but provide updates on some old favorites: inflation, complacency, and valuation. We also explore how the “sky is falling” narrative is changing how investors allocate capital, especially in the energy sector, why legacy producers in the Middle East are okay with the Mad Max scarcity scenario, and how U.S. producers are the Jekyll and Hyde that moodily swing prices. Stay tuned until the full time whistle, when Will gives the team talk on speculating with leverage. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.form...2021-10-2236 min
Tea and CrumpetsHating Things That Are Universally LovedWill and Adam discuss the challenges associated with being a contrarian. Specifically, hating things universally loved, like the S&P 500 and Betty White. They also explore the market’s complacency despite the specter of inflation, Chinese economic risks, retail being “maxed out” on equities, and potential fiscal headwinds domestically. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.2021-09-2254 min
Tea and CrumpetsThere's Always an Arquillian Battle CruiserWill and Adam discuss the newest COVID variant, as well as the repercussions of the Afghanistan withdrawal, especially as they relate to potentially reduced fiscal stimulus. We also juxtapose how September has historically been trouble for markets versus the current win streak, which typically bodes well for returns. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.2021-09-031h 00
Tea and CrumpetsCarnival BarkersWill & Adam explore the cacophony emanating from the loudest voices in the room on things like meme stocks and the delta variant, and provide our own measured analysis to separate hyperbole from reality. We also explore the jaws opening between economic data and interest rates, the Fed’s conundrum, and stretched valuations for the most speculative stocks. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.2021-08-0651 min
Tea and CrumpetsFlashing is good?We ignore the flashing red light on the microphone, just like markets have been ignoring any number of warning signs. We discuss the bond market (or lack thereof), explore the conflicting signals sent by treasury yields, and the explore the inexplicable appetite for the currently misnamed high-yield debt. The bifurcation of equity returns between megacap and the rest is discussed, as are the potential effects of the delta variant on supply chains. We also discover Will and Adam were, unsurprisingly, both in high school Latin clubs. Caveat emptor. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and...2021-07-2349 min
Tea and CrumpetsBark Twice if You’re in MilwaukeeWe bark again about the continued mania in meme stocks, as well as delve into the inflationary pressures building in certain parts of the economy. The massive flows into equities and misnamed “high yield” debt are also topics of conversation, as are looking to the late 1940s and late 1960s as potential playbooks for what might be a choppy remainder of the year. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.2021-07-0257 min
Tea and CrumpetsA Frugal Pair/Lumber vs. Timber/Dilution vs. DelusionCome aboard. We’re expecting you… We make another run after a technology glitch to discuss the Love Boat’s star-crossed investors, the knife-sharpening industry, and the strange dichotomy between market complacency as a whole versus the mania around retail trading in meme stocks. From there, we delve into a discussion of inflation as reflected in things like lumber and labor. We then debate how a trade can be both right and wrong concurrently and why capital allocation matters for companies in secular decline. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.fo...2021-06-151h 01
Tea and CrumpetsStupider Like a FoxWill and Adam delve into the return of meme-stock mania and address listener feedback vis-à-vis valuations and geese. They also discuss the circular logic of inflation versus expectations, how the market interprets this, and how the real impact of inflation is often mismeasured, using candy bar sizes. No free samples of a candy line-up will be provided. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.2021-06-0158 min
Tea and CrumpetsLimericks and Goose FightsWill and Adam explore human overconfidence, be it in fighting an animal, like a goose, or with regard to investing. We spend some time on the Indian variant, inflation expectations, and the rhyming nature of today’s speculative activities with prior episodes of mania. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.2021-05-191h 08
Tea and CrumpetsThe Market Rips, or A Fortnightly-ish HappeningWill and Adam review the market’s reaction to further fiscal stimulus, lack thereof to proposed tax changes, and compare the Fed’s largesse with the printer to our favorite confetti-throwing comedian. Obligatory discussions of lumber price inflation and employee scarcity also ensue, as does a more somber discussion of the overlooked Covid calamity in India. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.2021-05-0346 min
Tea and CrumpetsPolloi AhoyWill and Adam look right in the old lumber yard to discuss inflation and how government stimulus is affecting both sides of the inflation equation, especially as it relates to crowding out in the labor market. We also explore interest rates, the rotation back to large cap despite enthusiasm over re-opening and robust growth prospects for Q2, and the shift in retail investor activity. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.2021-04-201h 05
Tea and CrumpetsCompliance Mandated Podcast Number 0001: A New HopeWill and Adam explore the rebellion in stock markets, including the recent carnage prompted by margin calls on a highly levered family office. The two also discuss the red-hot housing market, transitory vs. lasting inflation, the bond market’s appetite for junk, the surprising strength of the dollar and its effect on Burl Ives’ favorite commodities. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.2021-04-0256 min
Tea and CrumpetsStupid Has Been NormalizedWill and Adam delve into grammar and how adding misused words, e.g., supposably, to the dictionary normalizes stupidity and is analogous to the market rewarding investors in meme stocks. We connect the dots on the disconnect between the Fed’s transitory view of inflation versus what the market is anticipating, look at the overlooked impact of the variant in Europe, and discuss other risks the market is currently ignoring in its desire to mitigate FOMO. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.2021-03-1956 min
Tea and CrumpetsTea and crumpets…LiterallyWill and Adam welcome Jennie Ripps, co-founder and CEO of Owl’s Brew, an emerging leader in the rapidly growing hard tea category. The three talk about the history of the company, its pivot to boozy tea, the challenges and opportunities of running a business during a pandemic, and why ingredients matter if you want to drink wise. They put the latter to the test with an impromptu taste comparison, and conclude with an analysis of the relative perceived sagacity of spectacles versus monocles.2021-02-0956 min
Tea and CrumpetsDo I Know What Orwellian Means?While Will and Adam may, a lot of people have been misusing the term lately. We discuss how all stocks are equal, though some are more equal than others, where we see (and do not see) inflation, and what that means for equities, especially small caps, and bonds. We close with some perspective on what has been driving the outperformance in certain frothy areas of the market, why it may continue, and what risks are being overlooked.2021-01-1450 min
Tea and CrumpetsNo AnswerLike the Electric Light Orchestra, Will and Adam have no answer for what is happening right now, but a lot of questions. They cover similarities and differences between now and the late 1990s, discuss valuation for various parts of the market, where they see relatively unattractive risk versus reward, and delve into specifics on a few names in the news.2020-12-181h 00
Tea and CrumpetsThe Room Where It HappensWill Brown and Adam Eagleston in the same room…drinking while recording a podcast. What could possibly go wrong? Apparently, everything. Listen to the two echo one another’s comments (literally) on election fallout and the widening chasm between economic reality and valuations in certain parts of the market. Will and Adam experienced technical difficulties in the recording of this podcast—we apologize for the sound quality. 2020-11-2459 min
Tea and CrumpetsThe First ColumnOf the periodic table, that is. We talk hydrogen vs. gravity power, rubidium-colored drinks, even unstable francium, provide an update on the potassium-shaped recovery, and answer questions regarding one of our recent white papers. Listening is even easier than Elon Musk thinks it is to find and process lithium using sodium chloride; we are unsure how many cesium cycles long this podcast is, though.2020-10-061h 00
Tea and CrumpetsDiderot, Veblen, and Burgundy?We discuss the psychology behind investors’ current affinity for glamour stocks and why it may not end soon, how this relates to the Fed’s new inflation policy, and why Will loves lamp.2020-09-0148 min
Tea and CrumpetsCramer vs. Kramer vs. KramerWill and Adam look to Jim, Rex, and Cosmo, collectively the “C(K)ramers”, for perspective on the Fed, market multiples, the shape of the recovery, and the Dunning-Kruger effect. 2020-08-2451 min
Tea and CrumpetsThe Icarian ParadoxEscape from the labyrinth and explore why physics don’t comport with the Icarus myth, and how the same kind of first-order thinking is affecting markets, where certain sectors and companies are in rarified air.2020-07-0746 min
Tea and CrumpetsThe Analyst and the ArsonistWill and Adam discuss the increase in COVID cases and its implications for consumer behavior, the Japanification of the U.S. (and what it means for financial stocks and gold), a recent purchase for our investors in the electric vehicle/drone space, and investors burning themselves through day trading. 2020-06-2546 min
Tea and CrumpetsThe Odd-I-SeeFormidable Asset Management's Will Brown and Adam Eagleston discuss the Odyssey investors have experienced in 2020, consumer trends associated with the re-opening of the economy, and the oddities we have seen with the behavior of certain stocks popular on Robinhood. Plus, a little mythology and history, as well as obligatory references to the shape of the recovery and associated chart crimes (we’re looking at you, CNBC, and that recent unemployment graphic). 2020-06-0951 min
Tea and CrumpetsSpiking the punch! Our thoughts on unprecedented market and economic dataWill and Adam offer their thoughts on unprecedented market and economic data in Episode 2 of the Tea and Crumpets podcast.2020-05-1933 min
Tea and CrumpetsThe Markets | It's Been Memorable and ConfusingFormidable Asset Management's Will Brown and Adam Eagleston discuss the markets as we approach the end of April. The highs, the lows, and everything in between in Episode 1 of their Tea and Crumpets podcast.2020-04-2834 min