Shows
Simply PutGeorge Pearkes on Kevin Warsh as Fed ChairPresident Trump has nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair later this year. Warsh called for “regime change” at the Fed last year, reiterating his long-held criticism of the Fed’s large balance sheet, data-dependence, and use of forward guidance. His tenure would begin with an already-divided FOMC and lingering worries surrounding threats to the Fed’s political independence. In this episode, we talk with George Pearkes, Macro Strategist with Bespoke Investment Group, about what Kevin Warsh brings to the Fed and how his leadership could drive monetary policy in the years ahead.
2026-02-0639 minSimply PutLisa Simon on the Labor Market Impacts of AIArtificial Intelligence (AI) is poised to disrupt the labor market by replacing certain tasks and enhancing the productivity of others. Although these changes could eventually lead to broader prosperity, they could also cause worker displacement, increase inequality, and decrease entry-level work opportunities. In this episode, we talk with Lisa Simon, Chief Economist of Revelio Labs, about the ways AI has already impacted the labor market, its diverse effects across occupations and industries, and what history can tell us about the longer-term future of work.
2026-01-2331 minSimply PutJon Cantrell and S.J. Guzzo on the 2026 Banking SectorBanks enter 2026 with a positively sloped yield curve, steady deposit growth, and a favorable regulatory environment. The outlook for the economy and Fed policy is highly uncertain, however, posing risks to loan demand, net interest margins, and the appetite for adding duration to balance sheets. In this episode, we talk with FHN Financial’s Jon Cantrell and S.J. Guzzo about bank deposit and loan growth in 2026, the ways banks can position for different shapes of the yield curve, and how regulatory changes will impact banks’ decisions this year.
2026-01-0930 minSimply Put2025 Year in ReviewThe US economy entered 2025 in a delicate balance but quickly faced several federal policy shocks. Tariffs, changes to immigration policy, and efforts to trim federal spending dominated headlines and complicated investors’ ability to identify underlying economic momentum. By the end of the year, the unemployment rate had risen to 4.6% but growth was tracking above 2%, inflation was above the Fed’s target but showed few signs of massive tariff pass-through, and the bond market was cautiously steady. In this episode, we talk with FHN Financial’s Chris Low and Sophia Kearney-Lederman about the biggest macroeconomic stories of 2025, what surprised us the mo...
2025-12-2652 minSimply PutTom Moerenhout on How Rare Earths Shape Trade AgreementsA set of elements called “rare earths” have been at the center of many international trade negotiations this year. Crucial to producing certain industrial and consumer products, rare earths can take more than a decade to discover and are expensive to refine. China’s dominant position in the global supply of rare earths is giving it leverage as US trade policies seek to redefine the international economy. In this episode, we talk with Tom Moerenhout, Professor at Columbia’s School of International and Public Affairs, about the importance of rare earths in the modern economy, their impact on international trade ne...
2025-12-1233 minSimply PutSue Spence on US Manufacturing in 2026The ISM Manufacturing survey has shown US firms have struggled to plan long-term amid this year’s fluid tariff policy landscape. Economic uncertainty and the lingering risks of policy reversal are limiting manufacturers’ confidence in making big investment or hiring decisions. Meanwhile, AI promises to increase demand for some manufacturing sectors while revolutionizing the production of others. In this episode, we talk with Sue Spence, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, about how tariff policies are influencing manufacturers’ long-term planning, AI’s impact on the operations and demands for manufacturing, and what worries manufact...
2025-11-2832 minSimply PutSteve Parente on How the OBBBA Will Impact Rural HospitalsRural hospitals utilize various forms of public support to increase healthcare availability in areas with low population density. The
OBBBA pairs spending cuts to these hospitals with incentives designed to
increase efficiency and minimize waste. As populations shift and federal
funding decreases, state governments will have to decide how to respond. In this episode, we talk with Steve Parente, Professor in the Department of Finance at the University of Minnesota, about the structural challenges facing rural hospitals, how federal policy changes will affect their financial support, and how state governments are positioned to fill any funding shortfall.
2025-11-1433 minSimply PutLIVE with FHN Financial EconomicsFHN Financial forecasts the economy will remain resilient next year and inflation will trend towards 2%, allowing the Fed to cut rates by 75bp in 2026. The outlook could nonetheless shift from several structural economic changes. The risk of eventual tariff pass-through to consumer prices will linger in the background, AI-fueled investment has buoyed the 2025 economy without much job growth, and the FOMC may struggle to reach consensus next year as policy normalization continues under a new Fed Chair. This episode is a recording of the economic roundtable at FHN Financial’s 2025 annual seminar in Nashville with Chief Economist Chris Low, Se...
2025-10-3152 minSimply PutBill Beach on the Challenges Facing Economic Data CollectionRecent revisions have cast doubt on the reliability of the
government’s economic statistics. Budget cuts and job vacancies at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) have exacerbated pre-existing issues from low initial survey response rates and the difficulty of identifying economic inflection points in real-time. Striking the right balance between timeliness and precision is essential for investors and the Fed to make well-informed decisions. In this episode, we talk with Bill Beach, Commissioner of the BLS from 2019-2023, about the process behind BLS data collection, why recent revisions have been so large, and different ways to improve government da...
2025-10-1745 minSimply PutNell Minow on Ending Quarterly Earnings DisclosuresSEC Chair Paul Atkins said he is committed to fast-tracking President Trump’s proposal to change the frequency of corporate disclosure requirements from quarterly to semi-annually. Proponents argue the reform would significantly lower compliance costs and encourage more long-term thinking, while detractors believe it would decrease vital transparency that allows for price discovery and well-functioning markets. In this bonus episode, we talk with Nell Minow, a corporate governance scholar and Chair of ValueEdge Advisors, about the history of quarterly earnings reports, how regulators determine materiality, and the timeline for any potential regulatory changes.
2025-10-1417 minSimply PutWalt Schmidt on the Possibility of Another Refinance BoomThe average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell 65bp between the beginning of June to the end of September, causing a mini refinancing boom from those who initially borrowed closer to this cycle’s peak rates. Most borrowers still have mortgages with rates well below the current market rate, however, reinforcing the “mortgage lock” that has stifled housing market churn over the last few years. The Fed’s policy path and longer-term interest rates will determine whether the housing market continues to thaw and how much prepayment risk there is for MBS investors. In this episode, we talk with Wal...
2025-10-0327 minSimply PutChris Low on the Elusive Quest for r*FOMC participants disagree about current economic conditions as well as the current stance of monetary policy. The neutral fed funds rate, often called r*, is where policy is neither restrictive nor accommodative, and helps guide Fed officials’ assessments of optimal policy in the short- and long-run. As the Fed continues to normalize policy, the bond market will contend with the uncertain destination of short-term interest rates in the post-pandemic economy. In this episode, we talk with Chris Low, Chief Economist with FHN Financial, about the difficulty in estimating r*, how neutral policy estimates impact bond market pricing, and whether r...
2025-09-1935 minSimply PutJim Cunha on the Prospect of a US Central Bank Digital CurrencyCountries around the world have started experimenting with central bank digital currencies, or CBDCs, to modernize their payments systems and increase accessibility to the banking system. Unlike money in a commercial bank, a CBDC in the United States would be backed by the Federal Reserve and could be transferred immediately between accounts, changing financial intermediation and how monetary policy channels into the economy. In this episode, we talk with Jim Cunha, former Executive Vice President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, about the mechanics of CBDCs, how they would alter the banking sector, and what they could mean...
2025-09-0530 minSimply PutKate Judge on How the Fed Helps Prevent Liquidity CrisesThe Federal Reserve helps support financial system resilience by acting as the lender of last resort, providing liquidity to institutions in exchange for high quality collateral. The usage of its 13(3) emergency authority during the 2023 regional banking crisis suggests the Fed may use these powers more frequently in today’s financial system. The rising importance of non-bank institutions has also complicated the Fed’s aim to strike an optimal balance between efficacy and the minimization of moral hazard. In this episode, we talk with Kate Judge, Professor of Law at Columbia Law School, about the Fed’s role as lender of las...
2025-08-2230 minSimply PutJoanne Hsu on How Today’s Pessimism is DifferentThe historically strong relationship between sentiment and consumer spending has decayed over the last few years. Although households have thus far persevered through the frustration of rapid price increases and higher interest rates this cycle, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey has begun flashing new hints for a future pullback in personal consumption. In this episode, we talk with Joanne Hsu, Director of the Surveys of Consumers at the Institute for Social Research at the University of Michigan, about the mechanics of the U Mich survey, understanding post-pandemic economic resilience amid persistent pessimism, and why deteriorating sentiment th...
2025-08-0834 minSimply PutDavid Jesse on the Fiscal Cliff Coming for Higher EducationNew policies are redefining the relationship between the federal government and higher education, curbing spending on research and threatening the revenue streams from endowments and international student tuition. Colleges and universities are looking for short-term fixes while developing longer-term plans to cut services or raise tuition fees. In this episode, we talk with David Jesse, Senior Writer at the Chronicle of Higher Education, about the federal government’s role in the financing of higher education, the financial impacts new policies could have on colleges and universities, and how institutions may adapt to the new landscape.
2025-07-2534 minSimply PutCarola Binder on the Value of Central Bank IndependenceChair Powell and the FOMC are facing heightened pressure to cut rates and account for cost overruns associated with renovations to the Fed’s headquarters. President Trump’s vocal desire to remove Powell has prompted investor concerns that monetary policy will be influenced by short-run political incentives rather than longer-run economic outcomes. In this special edition of Simply Put, we talk with Carola Binder, Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Texas, about the disinflationary impacts of central bank independence, the difference between de facto and de jure independence, and the Fed’s institutional guardrails against political pressure.
2025-07-2120 minSimply PutRachel Snyderman on the Deficit Impacts of the OBBBAThis year’s big fiscal package, officially titled the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), extends the TCJA’s tax cuts, increases spending on defense and immigration enforcement, significantly cuts Medicaid expenditures, and increases the debt ceiling by $5tn. The law’s budgetary impact will depend on the path of interest rates, how the economy responds to its various incentives, and whether temporary provisions are eventually made permanent. In this episode, we talk with Rachel Snyderman, Managing Director of Economic Policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center, about the OBBBA’s most significant provisions, its impact on federal deficits, and the ways...
2025-07-1144 minSimply PutIlya Somin on the Legal Basis for TariffsThe US Court of International Trade ruled last month that President Trump does not have the authority to unilaterally implement this year’s tariffs under emergency powers, throwing the president’s newest trade levies into legal limbo. As the case winds its way through the appeals process, the international trade environment hangs in the balance. In this episode, we talk with Ilya Somin, Professor of Law at George Mason University and co-counsel in the recent tariff case at the US Court of International Trade, about the legal pathways for enacting tariffs, last month’s ruling, and his predictions for trade...
2025-06-2725 min
Convention of StatesOvercoming Life's Obstacles Like a Statesman | Grassroots Groundbreakers Ep.10In this month's episode, Mike Ruthenberg interviews COS Texas volunteer John van Compernolle. We will discuss his start with Convention of States, his book on Article V, as well as his participation in passing the clean COS Resolution in Texas. We will discuss the life circumstances that could have derailed John but didn't. Mike is the Executive Grassroots Officer for Convention of States.
Book Link: Article V Unleashed by John van Compernolle
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2025-06-1930 minSimply PutRobert Dietz on Why There’s a Housing ShortageRegulations, snarled supply chains, and the scarring effects of the global financial crisis have all contributed to a nationwide housing shortage over the last fifteen years. As housing unaffordability continues to limit prospective homebuyers, homebuilders must now contend with federal policies that will impact housing demand, labor availability, and costs for building materials. In this episode, we talk with Robert Dietz, Chief Economist with the National Association of Home Builders, about why there’s a national housing shortage, how homebuilders view new federal policies, and the best ways to improve residential construction.
2025-06-1336 minSimply PutJoseph Wang on Whether SLR Reform can Strengthen the Treasury MarketThe Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) was designed to
increase banking sector resiliency after the Global Financial Crisis. Some have argued the SLR reduces Treasury market liquidity because the ratio is risk insensitive. Fed officials like Jerome Powell and Michelle Bowman have supported SLR reform, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent believes changes to the SLR could push Treasury yields down 30-70bp. In this episode, we talk with Joseph Wang, Principal at Monetary Macro and former trader on the Fed’s open markets desk, about the motivation behind the SLR, how it limits banks’ balance sheet flexibility, and whether reforms woul...
2025-05-2932 minSimply PutBenn Steil on Dollarization and a Potential “Mar-a-Lago Accord”The dollar has been the de facto global currency since World War II, pulling foreign investment into the US and allowing the federal government to borrow cheaply. A strong dollar also makes export-driven domestic industries less competitive, something the Trump administration is trying to offset through tariffs. A rumored “Mar-a-Lago Accord” would attempt to maintain the benefits of cheap borrowing while weakening the dollar. In this episode, we talk with Benn Steil, Senior Fellow and Director of International Economics at the Council on Foreign Relations, about the history behind the dollarization of global finance, the economic tradeoffs of sustained doll...
2025-05-1636 minSimply PutJonathan Smoke on How Tariffs are Impacting the US Auto IndustryThe typical automobile manufactured in North America crosses national borders at least six times before it’s ready to be sold. Tariffs are expected to increase US auto prices by thousands of dollars as companies establish new supply chains and onshore manufacturing with higher production costs. In this episode, we talk with Jonathan Smoke, Chief Economist with Cox Automotive, about the complexity of auto manufacturing supply chains, tariffs’ impacts on prices and employment in the auto sector, and the outlook for a less globally integrated auto industry.
2025-05-0234 minSimply PutGuy Berger on the Post-Tariff Labor MarketThe Fed has been able to dismiss the economic risks from deteriorating sentiment by emphasizing the steady unemployment rate and decent job growth over the last seven months. The labor market’s surprising resilience over the last few years will now be tested by tariff-induced production changes, federal workforce layoffs, cuts to federal spending, and tighter immigration enforcement. In this episode, we talk with Guy Berger, Director of Economic Research at the Burning Glass Institute, about the risks from a low-churn labor market, how employers are shifting hiring plans amidst new federal policies, and whether the labor market can sm...
2025-04-1834 minSimply PutAmit Khandelwal on the Economic Impacts of TariffsPresident Trump’s latest tariff announcements have thrown global financial markets into a frenzy and increased the uncertainty for the US economic outlook. In this special edition of Simply Put, we talk with Amit Khandelwal, Professor of Global Affairs and Economics at Yale University, about the arguments for and against tariffs, how the 2018 tariffs affected the economy, and what the impacts could be of this year’s much broader and deeper tariff policies.
2025-04-0734 minSimply PutEmily Brock on the Muni Tax ExemptionThis year’s budget reconciliation bill has the potential to dramatically alter the fiscal relationship between states and the federal government. Some policymakers have proposed repealing the municipal tax exemption that has been at the heart of state financing for over a century. Others have suggested cutting federal spending by shifting the burden for certain outlays to state and local governments. In this episode, we talk with Emily Brock, Director of the Federal Liaison Center at the Government Finance Officers Association, about the critical role the muni tax exemption plays in local infrastructure investment, how states are adjusting to po...
2025-04-0435 minSimply PutWalt Schmidt on GSE Reform in the Mortgage MarketGovernment Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs) like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been significant actors in the housing market for nearly a century. Ever since market distress pushed Fannie and Freddie into conservatorship of the Federal Housing Finance Authority in 2008, policymakers have sought to transition the firms back into more privatized roles. Reform discussions have accelerated after the November elections, but any massive changes would have to be judicious and likely require bipartisan support. In this episode, we interview Walt Schmidt, Manager of Mortgage Strategies with FHN Financial, about the history of GSEs in the housing market, potential reforms in...
2025-03-2138 minSimply PutMatt Klein on Promoting US Economic Potential and Balanced Global TradeThe pandemic fiscal response supported a much faster recovery in the US than after the financial crisis, but price levels and the federal deficit surged. Households and businesses, tired of high interest rates and cumulative price increases, must now contend with a tariff regime that aims to improve US competitiveness abroad at the risk of higher consumer prices. The Fed meanwhile is trying to restore price stability and preserve the recovery, unsure how much its rate policy is channeling into the economy. In this episode, we talk with journalist Matt Klein, creator of “The Overshoot” newsletter and co-author of the...
2025-03-0753 minSimply PutMatt Palazola on the Insurance Industry Impacts of the California WildfiresWildfires swept through parts of southern California last month, causing indescribable human suffering and property destruction. The rising frequency and magnitude of these events, along with the unintended consequences of some well-intentioned regulations, are also placing unique pressure on the insurance market. In this episode, we talk with Matt Palazola, Senior Analyst for Property and Casualty Insurance with Bloomberg Intelligence, about the size of the wildfires’ insured losses, the risk of financial contagion, and how the insurance industry could change moving forward.
2025-02-2127 minSimply PutWill Rinehart on the Macroeconomic Potential of Artificial IntelligenceOver the last few years, the technological promise of artificial intelligence (AI) has propelled stock market gains, driven fears of widespread labor market displacement, and helped turn microchip production into a matter of national security. Generative AI models are still in their infancy, but investors and economists are already debating whether its impact will rival that of electricity or the steam engine. There are nonetheless numerous hurdles to overcome before it becomes dispersed throughout the entire economy. In this episode, we talk with Will Rinehart, Resident Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute’s Center for Technology, Science, and En...
2025-02-0739 minSimply PutNathan Dean on the Debt Ceiling’s Impacts on Fiscal RestraintThe US Treasury has once again started to use “extraordinary measures” to honor its debt service obligations and avoid breaching the debt ceiling. With these measures expected to run out sometime this summer, any efforts to increase or suspend the debt ceiling will run concurrently with Republican priorities to renew tax cuts and cut government spending. President Trump has voiced support in eliminating the debt ceiling altogether, creating the possibility of a bipartisan agreement that would remove this frequent source of anxiety for financial markets. In this episode, we talk with Nathan Dean, Senior Policy Analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, abou...
2025-01-2435 minSimply PutAlan Cole on Tariffs and the Coming Fight over TCJA RenewalWith slim majorities in the House and Senate, Republicans hope to narrow the fiscal deficit and extend many of the tax cuts from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). A handful of fiscal hawks and the Senate’s legislative rules could limit the GOP’s ability to accomplish renewal of the TCJA’s biggest provisions. President-elect Trump also campaigned extensively on raising tariffs to increase revenues and protect domestic industry. In this episode, we talk with Alan Cole, Senior Economist with the Tax Foundation’s Center for Federal Tax Policy, about the Senate’s budget reconciliation process, the most impor...
2025-01-1047 minSimply Put2024 Year in ReviewThe US economic recovery continued through 2024, but inflation progress has stalled above 2% and the labor market has significantly cooled. Despite the FOMC lowering interest rates by 100bp this year, Fed officials and financial markets head into 2025 uncertain about the pace and magnitude of any future rate cuts. Republicans won back control of the White House and majorities in both halls of Congress, creating a path to significant federal policy changes over at least the next two years. In this episode, we talk with FHN Financial’s Chief Economist Chris Low and Senior Economist Sophia Kearney-Lederman about the key macroeconomic de...
2024-12-2749 minSimply PutJeff Davis on the Banking Sector’s 2025 OutlookDuring the last two years, aggressive monetary policy tightening compressed banks’ net interest margins, placed tremendous strain on banks’ balance sheets, and demonstrated the vulnerabilities from exposure to CRE. The banking sector is hoping that additional Fed easing and less restrictive federal regulations next year will create more favorable conditions for profitability, M&A, and operational flexibility. In this episode, we talk with Jeff Davis, Managing Director of Mercer Capital’s Financial Institutions Group, about the state of banking after years of tight monetary policy, regulatory changes banks can expect starting next year, and the best strategies for banks given...
2024-12-1336 minSimply PutTom Doe on Extreme Weather’s Impact on the Municipal Bond MarketThe rising frequency of extreme weather events has put elevated pressure on municipal budgets to pay for relief efforts and prepare for future disasters. Public costs have also increased because the areas seeing the highest population growth can be the most vulnerable to such events. In this episode, we talk with Tom Doe, CEO and Founder of Municipal Market Analytics, about the scope of extreme weather events, how municipal governments complement federal assistance to manage the costs, and how these events are impacting the insurance industry and municipal bond market.
2024-11-2940 minSimply PutPeter Ryan on How Rising Deficits are Shaping the Treasury MarketTreasuries function as the benchmark asset in bond markets, underscoring their importance in borrowing rates and global financial conditions. As fears of higher future Treasury supply loom large, bond investors look to certain metrics to help understand how well the market is absorbing increasing levels of public debt. Changes in Treasury yields reflect underlying macroeconomic fundamentals, but they are also driven by central banks’ balance sheet management, the maturity profile of newly issued securities, and the market response when new debt comes to market. In this episode, we talk with Peter Ryan, Managing Director and Head of International Capital Ma...
2024-11-1530 minSimply PutLIVE with Chris Low and Thomas Coleman on the Lessons of the Pandemic EconomyThe economy has consistently defied expectations since 2020, prompting important questions about the soundness of the models used by the Fed and most economists. High inflation persisted much longer than the Fed predicted, inflation fell substantially without significant labor market weakening, and the economy weathered aggressive Fed tightening by growing above its estimated long-run potential. In this episode, Chris Low, Chief Economist of FHN Financial, and Thomas Coleman, Senior Lecturer at the Harris School of Public Policy at the University of Chicago, reflect on the biggest economic lessons of the last few years and how to reconsider fundamental macroeconomic relationships...
2024-11-0149 minSimply PutLucy Eve on Managing the Risks around US ElectionsWith control of the White House and House looking up for grabs, the post-election policy landscape looks highly uncertain only weeks before November 5. The priorities of the new president will run up against an unpredictable amount of Congressional and judicial pushback, creating a wide range of estimates for growth, inflation, federal deficits, and subsequent Fed policy. In this episode, we talk with Lucy Eve, Director of Global Macro-Geoeconomics with Eurasia Group, about the economic implications of various electoral outcomes, what the Presidential winner can do with and without Congressional cooperation, and how to manage risks amidst all the uncertainty.
2024-10-1840 minSimply PutMitchell Redd on the Market for Loans as Interest Rates Head LowerUnlike the markets for Treasury securities and MBS, the market for loans can be opaque and illiquid, making it difficult for financial institutions to optimize their loan portfolios and find appropriate counterparties with which to buy and sell loans. Periods of macroeconomic and interest rate volatility can also complicate the ability to accurately price loans for assets like commercial real estate. In this episode, we talk with Mitchell Redd, Senior Vice President with the Capital Assets Group at FHN Financial, about bridging the gap between buyers and sellers of loans, the current sentiment surrounding CRE, and how the loan...
2024-10-0438 minSimply PutAdam Sacks on How Tourism Helps Explain Economic ResilienceTourism has bounced back after significantly suffering during early pandemic shutdowns. Households across the income spectrum continue to spend on discretionary travel despite economic pessimism and depleted savings. Tourism’s recovery and strength offer insight into how the overall economy has managed to weather high inflation and aggressive Fed tightening without tipping into a recession. In this episode, we talk with Adam Sacks, President of Tourism Economics, about the tourism industry’s challenges since 2020, how tourists have defied predictions of a consumer slowdown, and how spending strength has varied across geographies, income groups, and sectors.
2024-09-2031 minSimply PutPatrick Higgins on Using GDPNow to Estimate Economic GrowthThe Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is followed closely by financial market participants as an estimate for economic growth. Rather than looking at a long-term horizon, the model focuses only on the current quarter and updates its estimate after important monthly data reports, giving a real-time ability to check the pulse of the economy instead of waiting for each quarterly GDP release. In this episode, we talk with Patrick Higgins, Economist with the Atlanta Federal Reserve and creator of the GDPNow model, about how the model differs from other forecasts, its track record against the official GDP data, and th...
2024-09-0627 minSimply PutDr. Campbell Harvey on the Inverted Yield Curve’s Recession SignalsIn his 1986 PhD thesis, Campbell Harvey identified the predictive power of the inverted yield curve through four business cycles. With curve inversion correctly foretelling three more recessions since then, investors this cycle have been anticipating an impending downturn ever since the yield curve inverted nearly two years ago. In this episode, we talk with Dr. Campbell Harvey, Professor of Finance at the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University, about the theoretical foundation connecting the inverted yield curve and recessions, whether this cycle could be different, and what it implies for Fed policy.
2024-08-2338 minSimply PutJoey Kline on CRE in the Post-pandemic EconomyAlthough the Fed appears to be on the cusp of finally lowering interest rates, the rapid monetary tightening of the last two years has caused significant distress within commercial real estate (CRE). The bleakest doomsday predictions have not come to pass, but property owners have still experienced real losses as people shift to new post-pandemic ways of working and living. In this episode, we talk with Joey Kline, Executive Vice President at Jones Lang LaSalle, about where CRE stands more than a year into the Fed’s extended rate pause, how workplaces continue to evolve with hybrid work capabilities, an...
2024-08-0933 minSimply PutJP Aubry on How Public Pensions Survived (and Thrived in) the PandemicAlmost every state and local government worker in the US participates in a public pension system, creating a strong bond between the fiscal health of states and municipalities and their employees’ retirement systems. These smaller systems have faced the same demographic challenges driving concerns over Social Security’s funding, but they’ve also had to deal with rapid migration flows, fluctuating revenues, and the Fed’s aggressive interest rate hikes during the last four years. In this episode, we talk with JP Aubry, Associate Director of State and Local Research with the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, about ho...
2024-07-2627 minSimply PutKristy Hung on the Boom and Bust in the Chinese Real Estate MarketChina’s booming real estate sector helped propel the country’s tremendous growth over the last few decades. This rapid increase in property valuations contributed to a speculative frenzy that led to overindebted firms, unfinished houses, and a collapse in consumer confidence for homeownership. In this episode, we talk with Kristy Hung, Senior Analyst for China Real Estate with Bloomberg Intelligence, about the fundamental forces driving China’s property sector, what caused recent issues at Evergrande and Country Garden, and global investors’ potential exposure to any systemic contagion.
2024-07-1236 minSimply PutBryan Chapman on the US Oil Industry’s Transformation to Global LeaderOil prices have remained relatively steady during the last couple of years despite robust global demand and ongoing geopolitical risks from multiple foreign wars. The ability of domestic producers to increase production has played a large part in keeping prices in check, a notable contrast to only 20 years ago when the US was significantly more dependent on buying energy commodities from abroad. In this episode, we talk with Bryan Chapman, Market President for Energy Finance with First Horizon, about the multi-decade transformation of the US oil industry, the most important forces driving the industry today, and how oil companies...
2024-06-2836 minSimply PutChris Low on the Fed’s 2% Inflation TargetAs the Fed continues to fight high inflation, some analysts have argued that structural forces are making the ideal inflation target higher than 2% in the post-pandemic economy. Factors out of the Fed’s control are making it particularly difficult this cycle to fully restore price stability without tipping the economy into a recession. Although the current regime has a relatively short history, financial markets would almost certainly question the Fed’s inflation-fighting credibility if they were to raise the target. In this episode, we talk with Chris Low, Chief Economist with FHN Financial, about the history behind the Fed’s 2% i...
2024-06-1446 minSimply PutBrian Waters on the Community Reinvestment ActCongress passed the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) nearly 50 years ago to encourage lending within financial institutions’ local communities. Since its passage, regulators have tried to modernize the CRA in order to keep up with broad changes in the financial system. Today, banks and bank examiners are preparing for possible reforms in the coming years that would significantly alter how they comply with the CRA. In this episode, we talk with Brian Waters, President and Co-Founder of FindCRA, about the history of CRA, its efficacy amidst a shifting financial landscape, and some proposed changes on the horizon.
2024-05-3132 minSimply PutMatt Peterman and Ruben Rodriguez on the SBA MarketLoans issued by the Small Business Administration are pooled into securities that are backed by the full faith and credit of the US government, have a quarterly adjusting feature, and have no floating rate cap. The SBA market is big and liquid enough to function smoothly through shocks like legislative risk and the 2023 regional banking crisis. In this episode, we talk with Matt Peterman and Ruben Rodriguez of FHN Financial about the structure of SBA 7(a) securities, how the SBA market functioned through the pandemic economy, and the securities’ strategic role in the current interest rate environment.
2024-05-1726 minSimply PutJulia Gelatt on the Impacts of Immigration on the US EconomyRecent research from the Congressional Budget Office suggests that an initial undercounting of undocumented migrants may help explain the surprisingly resilient US economy during the last two years. From a macroeconomic perspective, the future path of migration flows will significantly affect longer-term estimates of potential economic growth and public budget trajectories. In this episode, we talk with Julia Gelatt, Associate Director of the US Immigration Policy Program at the Migration Policy Institute, about the current state of US immigration, the most important drivers of US migration flows, the role of policy versus external factors, and the impacts of migration...
2024-05-0334 minSimply PutJames Hotchkiss on the Federal Home Loan Bank SystemThe Federal Home Loan Bank system started as a Great Depression-era effort to support homeownership across the United States. Ever since, it has transformed into a vital source of liquidity for its member banks in good times and bad. In this episode, we talk with James Hotchkiss, Senior Director of Strategies and Solutions at the Federal Home Loan Bank of Chicago, about the FHLB system’s history, how it serves its member banks, and its role in the US financial system.
2024-04-1931 minSimply PutPreston Mui on the Labor MarketThe labor market is at the center of overall economic activity and how the Federal Reserve understands inflation. It can be difficult to gauge underlying trends for employment and compensation, however, when some data series appear to be telling different stories. In this episode, we talk with Preston Mui, Senior Economist at Employ America, about how to understand the most important labor market data, how the Fed views labor market tightness in its fight against high inflation, and the outlook for 2024.
2024-04-0542 minSimply PutBrian Matochik and Christian Turner on Bank Derivatives ToolsThe use of derivatives has evolved since the global financial crisis, giving banks opportunities to protect against the risks and uncertainty that stem from aggressive Fed tightening. Now that the Fed is poised to begin policy easing later this year, these tools can also help banks weather falling interest rates to support financial system stability. In this episode, we talk with Brian Matochik and Christian Turner, Senior Vice Presidents with the Derivative Products Group at FHN Financial, about the value of derivatives for banks in a wide range of market environments, how regulators view the use of derivatives, and...
2024-03-2224 minSimply PutGreg Baer on the Basel III EndgameDecades ago, the Basel Accords attempted to minimize global financial risk by standardizing regulations across major countries. The current phase of legislation, initially crafted after the global financial crisis and now dubbed the “Basel III endgame,” would impose new risk-weighted capital requirements on US banks and widen the net of financial regulation, potentially increasing costs for banks and customers in an attempt to elevate banking sector resiliency. In this episode, we talk with Greg Baer, President and Chief Executive Officer at the Bank Policy Institute, about Basel III’s key elements, the tradeoff between profitability and banking sector stability, and th...
2024-03-0841 minSimply PutMark Palim on the Housing MarketThe shift from rock-bottom interest rates early in the pandemic to mortgage rates eclipsing 8% has caused housing inventories to plummet and demand for new housing construction to increase. As the housing market reaches somewhat of a standstill from homeowners experiencing “mortgage lock,” rising house prices make first-time homeownership increasingly less affordable. While the housing market has so far weathered these changes without an industry-wide collapse, cyclical forces can always cause distress down the line. In this episode, we talk with Mark Palim, Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist with Fannie Mae, about how the housing market has adjusted to pand...
2024-02-2329 minSimply PutAdriana Reyes on Long-term US DemographicsDemographics are at the core of understanding future economic growth and the long-run environment for financial institutions. Population trends, migration patterns, generational attitudes towards homeownership, and shifting approaches to retirement significantly impact loan demand, the housing market, and the macroeconomy. While some trends have accelerated during the past four years, others appear to be temporary pandemic adjustments. In this episode, we talk with Adriana Reyes, Assistant Professor of Public Policy and Sociology at Cornell University, about the most important demographic trends in the US.
2024-02-0924 minSimply PutEthan Heisler on the 2024 Banking SectorThe banking sector managed to avoid the worst case scenarios that some predicted in March 2023. But with banks still adjusting to the Fed’s aggressive monetary tightening during the last two years, they are now shifting their attention to managing prospective rate cuts later this year. Meanwhile, the Fed’s Quantitative Tightening, Reverse Repo facility, and the 2023 Bank Term Funding Program are all set to reach critical inflection points during the next few months. In this episode, Ethan Heisler, editor in chief of The Bank Treasury Newsletter, discusses how banks can best position themselves in this dynamic environment.
2024-01-2634 minSimply PutBrett Bolton on the 2024 Bond Market’s Tax and Regulatory EnvironmentThe bond market will be adapting to some new regulations this year while also keeping an eye on some new legislative proposals in the pipeline. With November elections up in the air, the future of some provisions from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that are set to sunset next year are top of mind for many fixed income investors. In this episode, we talk with Brett Bolton, Vice President and Head of Government and Industry Relations with the Bond Dealers of America, about what to expect for bond market taxes and regulation in 2024 and onward.
2024-01-1230 minSimply PutThe 2023 Year in Review2023 began with widespread recession forecasts, stubborn inflation, and slowing job growth. Despite higher interest rates, months of debt ceiling anxiety, and a regional banking crisis this year, the US economy managed to avoid a recession and heads into 2024 with rising hopes for a soft landing. In this episode, FHN Financial’s Chris Low and Sophia Kearney-Lederman return to the podcast to discuss the biggest trends in 2023 and what they’re keeping an eye on in 2024.
2023-12-2945 minSimply PutClaudia Sahm on the Resilient yet Unpopular 2023 EconomyWith only a couple weeks left in 2023, the economy has managed to avoid a recession that one year ago seemed inevitable. Personal consumption has been robust and the unemployment rate has stayed below 4% despite aggressive Fed tightening and inflation eroding real spending power. Households and businesses nonetheless report dour views of the economy. In this episode, we talk with Claudia Sahm, former Fed researcher and founder of Sahm Consulting, about the resilient 2023 economy, why sentiment surveys tell such a different story than the hard data, and what she sees on the horizon for 2024.
2023-12-1538 minSimply PutMarc Goldwein on the Federal Budget DeficitThe US Treasury recently increased the size of its securities auctions to help accommodate a widening Federal deficit. With the biggest pandemic stimulus bills in the rearview mirror, bond investors are worried that big deficits are no longer a temporary phenomenon. Rising interest rates, demographic changes, and a gridlocked political climate are complicating any easy path to budget reform. In this episode, we talk with Marc Goldwein, Senior Vice President and Senior Policy Director at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, about the primary drivers behind recent Federal deficits and how to think about the future budget trajectory.
2023-12-0127 minSimply PutAnnie Rothrock on the Semiconductor Microchip IndustryA primary driver of early-pandemic inflation came from a shortage of semiconductor microchips, a technology essential to everyday items like automobiles and personal electronics that is both expensive and time-intensive to produce. While semiconductor manufacturing has since managed to narrow the gap between supply and demand, US policymakers have taken steps to increase domestic independence in this burgeoning industry. In this episode, we talk with Annie Rothrock, Vice President of the firm ATREG, about how the semiconductor microchip industry changed throughout the pandemic and how recent Federal legislation will shape its future.
2023-11-1743 minSimply PutPeter Hooper on Inflation Modeling in the Post-Pandemic EconomyThe Federal Reserve and many market analysts have been surprised by the inflation trajectory during the pandemic; first by the persistence and intensity of inflation that began in 2021, and more recently by the improvement that has occurred without a meaningful increase in the unemployment rate. Models that rely on inflation expectations and labor market strength have had relatively weak predictive power during the last few years, calling into question how well we understand what drives inflation. In this episode, Peter Hooper, Managing Director and Vice Chair of Research at Deutsche Bank, discusses inflation models at the Fed and in...
2023-11-0328 minSimply PutTerry Belton on the Next Phase of the Bond MarketThe rise in nominal bond yields the last couple of years has reversed a nearly four-decade trend of falling yields prior to the pandemic. With inflation now slowing and the economic effects of the pandemic fading, it’s unclear whether we will return to something resembling the pre-pandemic interest rate environment or if we are in the early stages of a new normal. In this episode, Terry Belton, former Head of Global Portfolio Strategy for the Chief Investment Office at JP Morgan, discusses what drove the 40-year bond bull market, whether he thinks those forces are set to change, an...
2023-10-2032 minSimply PutSophia Kearney-Lederman on Understanding the Fed’s Economic and Rate ProjectionsFour times per year, the Federal Open Market Committee releases a Summary of Economic Projections that reports FOMC participants’ projections for the federal funds rate and key economic variables. The SEP, featuring the so-called “dot plot,” gives markets a sense of where the Fed feels the economy and monetary policy are heading the next few years, but the implications are not always clear. In this episode, Sophia Kearney-Lederman of FHN Financial talks about what goes into the Fed’s projections, how to interpret them, and how much value they have at this point in the tightening cycle.
2023-10-0630 minSimply PutMike DeLisle on Asset Liability Management during this Tightening CycleBanks use Asset Liability Management modelling, or ALM, to position for different interest rate scenarios and economic shocks. Rapid interest rate hikes starting last year and March bank tensions have put unique stresses on bank balance sheets this year, and the prospect of eventual rate cuts can pose its own challenges in the future. In this episode, Mike DeLisle of FHN Financial discusses how banks have adjusted their balance sheets during this cycle of Fed tightening and how they can best position themselves for the year ahead.
2023-09-2228 minSimply PutLandon Williams on the Commercial Real Estate LandscapeCommercial Real Estate has come into focus from shifting asset valuations and higher interest rates prompted by the pandemic economy. With bank balance sheets exposed to some of these properties, some worry that any weakness in CRE will add to existing banking industry distress. In this episode, Landon Williams of Cushman & Wakefield discusses the primary drivers of CRE in the current environment, the potential for systemic pressures in the near future, and the most important things to look out for in the year ahead.
2023-09-0831 minSimply PutAbby Urtz on how the Shift to Remote Work Impacts the Municipal Debt MarketThe pandemic turbo-charged a shift to remote work that has changed how we live and work. Every city has experienced this a little differently depending on demographics, local job composition, and flexibility of municipal budgets. In this episode, FHN Financial’s Abby Urtz discusses how the new remote work landscape is impacting cities and the municipal debt market.
2023-08-2532 minSimply PutWalt Schmidt on MBS in the Context of the Fed’s Balance Sheet ManagementIn addition to lowering its policy rate at the beginning of the pandemic, the Federal Reserve engaged in Quantitative Easing, meant to lower longer-term interest rates and stabilize the mortgage market. Now that the Fed is aiming to remove accommodation from the economy, it is quietly shrinking the amount of Treasury securities and MBS on its balance sheet while markets focus on the path of the fed funds rate. In this episode, FHN Financial’s Walt Schmidt talks about how to understand MBS as the Fed continues its Quantitative Tightening and nears the end of its tightening cycle.
2023-08-1128 minSimply PutChris Low on the Prospect of Achieving a Soft LandingThe low unemployment rate and improving inflation picture suggest a so-called “soft landing” could be on the horizon. Rate-sensitive sectors like tech and housing also seem to give a roadmap for how the economy can come into better balance without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. In this episode, FHN Financial’s Chief Economist Chris Low talks about why he’s skeptical the Fed can bring inflation down to its long-run 2% target without tipping the economy into a recession. Also, we discuss the market implications of this week’s FOMC decision and what the Fed will be looking at before...
2023-07-2833 minSimply PutGray Bowles on the 2023 Banking Sector LandscapeThere’s been relative calm in the banking sector recently after months of worry that a few regional bank failures in March were the first signs of much larger cracks in the financial system. Banks face ongoing liquidity risks, but the bigger issues in the next year could be in bank profitability and funding mix. In this episode, Gray Bowles, Senior Vice President of Portfolio Strategy with FHN Financial, discusses what he sees as the key risks for the banking sector in the next 6-12 months.
2023-07-1431 min2023-07-1001 min
Empowered Authenticity: The PodcastMaggie CompernolleHow do you react when you hear the word 'death'? For many of us, our natural inclination is to recoil and push from our minds the fact that we, everyone we love, and everything around us will one day die. Like most things, ignoring death doesn't make it magically go away. As such, many of us are scared of death and unprepared for the inevitable end of life. Let's start having conversations and figure out how we can die and live better.
Maggie Compernolle is a hospice nurse, death educator, yoga instructor, and the owner of Life...
2022-04-1655 min