Look for any podcast host, guest or anyone
Showing episodes and shows of

Zeynep Tufekci

Shows

New Books in Science, Technology, and Society2025-02-2646 minNew Books in Sociology2025-02-2646 minNew Books in Technology2025-02-2646 minNew Books in Communications2025-02-2646 minNew Books in Political Science2025-02-2646 minScience From the Fringe2024-12-041h 26GZERO World with Ian Bremmer2023-12-2316 minGZERO World with Ian Bremmer2023-12-2316 minAbertura 2023 da Série Memórias de Aulas2023-06-2111 minMoments of Clarity2023-03-011h 21The Disorienting Dilemma2022-08-1046 minYoga Wisdom with Acharya das2022-03-2143 minThe Ezra Klein Show2022-01-181h 15Explain It to Me2021-12-2156 minAbout Practice2021-12-161h 06Political Gabfest2021-11-181h 08Political Gabfest2021-11-181h 05İlham Veren Kadınlar2021-09-2911 minConversations with Tyler2021-08-251h 05Boteco do Marketing2021-06-051h 18Kanárci v síti2021-05-2137 minSean Carroll\'s Mindscape2021-04-051h 17Sean Carroll\'s Mindscape: Science, Society, Philosophy, Culture, Arts, and Ideas2021-04-051h 17The Open Forum Infectious Diseases Podcast2021-03-1844 minReliable Sources2021-02-0744 minThe Ezra Klein Show2021-02-021h 09Making Sense with Sam Harris - Subscriber Content2021-02-011h 40Winning Slowly2020-11-1933 minWhy Is This Happening? The Chris Hayes Podcast2020-11-101h 08Winning Slowly2020-11-0531 minAM1300 今日話題 Today\'s Topic
AM1300 今日話題 Today's Topic大選預測模式是否可信?簡單回答:不可信。北卡大學副教授Zeynep Tufekci 把大選預測模式和氣象預測進行了比較,很有意思。氣象預測從何而來? 兩個方面,一個是直接因素,一個是統計概率。 直接因素是科學對大氣運動和地理環境的研究與理解。這是基於人類千百年來的觀察和研究組成的預測基礎。 統計概率則是人類無數次地收集氣象資料。這兩點,大選都不具備。 首先,研究現代美國大選初選的民調從1972年開始。 從那時到現在,只有12次大選,這個次數太低,無法形成有意義的根據。同時變數太多: 最後時刻的國內國外局勢 經濟情況 選民投票前的改變主意 接受民調的選民會不會真的去投票 其他因素,如,1972年根本沒有社交媒體,所以那時的經驗可借鑑的不多;和氣象不同的是,每次大選都不是完全一樣的重複,其中充滿根本無法預測的因素。於是最終的依靠就是所謂的“民調”了。 2016年的大選告訴我們,民調也不可靠。獲勝機率和真正獲勝完全不同。 如果投票結果顯示一個候選人贏得53%的選票,則此候選人就算大勝。 但同一候選人如大選之前的獲勝機率是53%,意思就是,完全一樣的選舉進行100次,他/她可能贏53次,但也會輸掉47次。 我們怎麼知道某次選舉不是那47次之一呢?我們聽聽 Tufekci 教授如何解釋這個現象。
2020-11-0221 minChannels with Peter Kafka2020-10-291h 06KQED\'s Forum2020-10-2752 minPriključenija2020-09-0714 minOut of the Crisis2020-08-241h 12Big Technology Podcast2020-08-1957 minOut of the Crisis2020-08-171h 10Gedankenschach – Kultur der Digitalität2020-07-2341 minLovett or Leave It2020-07-181h 07Le Monde Moderne2020-06-0327 minWar of Ideas2020-05-3154 minReal Human Bings2020-05-261h 13Political Gabfest2020-05-141h 13Past Present2020-04-1429 minExplain It to Me2020-03-3158 minAstral Codex Ten Podcast2020-03-2533 minThe Seen and the Unseen - hosted by Amit Varma2020-02-011h 21KaLee Vision2019-10-224h 17Kotaku Splitscreen2019-10-171h 12Berkeley Talks2019-08-2650 minHear the Bern2019-07-0940 minHear the Bern2019-07-0900 minResistanceMom2019-06-2743 minAnother Week In the Books2019-06-0414 minQueers2019-05-2737 minHunting Seasons - A TV Podcast2019-05-242h 09Talkradio2019-05-2152 minKotaku Splitscreen2019-05-201h 26Bibliobanter2019-05-0257 minJepson School of Leadership Studies2019-03-0605 minTeam Human with Douglas Rushkoff2018-12-051h 16Festival of Dangerous Ideas2018-11-2959 minFestival of Dangerous Ideas2018-11-2857 minRei Grifo2018-11-2350 minSlate Conversations2018-10-2639 minSlate Conversations2018-10-2637 minRefigure2018-08-2926 minBoston Calling2018-08-2526 minThe Gray Area with Sean Illing2018-08-061h 06Reading Glasses2018-04-0543 minLongform2018-03-2145 minNot Loud Enough Podcast2018-02-2700 minStart Worrying Details To Follow2018-02-0858 minOn the Media2018-01-261h 00On the Media Podcast (On the Media)2018-01-261h 00404.earth2018-01-0700 minHow Do We Fix It?2017-12-1330 minDamn We Grown2017-11-281h 00Innovation Hub2017-11-1749 minInnovation Hub2017-11-1715 minTuneIn | Technology2017-10-2723 minTEDTalks Technologie2017-10-2722 minTEDTalks 科技2017-10-2722 minTEDTalks Tecnologia2017-10-2722 minTEDTalks Tecnología2017-10-2722 minTEDTalks 科技2017-10-2722 minNewsFeed with @BuzzFeedBen2017-07-0245 minInquiring Minds2017-06-2642 minInnovation Hub2017-06-1618 minInnovation Hub2017-06-1649 minMaking Sense with Sam Harris - Subscriber Content2017-05-261h 29Listen To This Spellbinding Full Audiobook — Perfect On The Go.2017-05-161h 55Shorenstein Center2016-10-071h 09Shorenstein Center Media and Politics Podcast2016-10-051h 09TED Technology2015-02-0516 minTED Technology2015-02-0516 minTEDTalks 科技2015-02-0216 minMIT Comparative Media Studies/Writing2013-10-171h 52