Shows
Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour November 20, 2025 - Featuring Thoughts from The Loft Guru Pete DrewienkiewiczIn today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we feature the legendary Pete Drewienkiewicz of Thoughts from The Loft (TFTL) fame (of Gallagher Benefit Company, formerly Redington in the UK) and a robust discussion ensues. Starting with "Food Glorious Food" and its driver of inflation, we examine whether inflation will rest at the higher 3.6% level in the UK and what trajectory is likely in the US.
We move then to the different apparent interest rate plateaus across the US, the UK and Europe, and ask whether the UK should be "resting" at a higher level...
2025-11-2029 min
Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittInflation Isn’t Just One Number - It’s Your LifeFull Episode: Too Big to Fail - 2.0 and Beyond
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BQeihjN5UO0
2025-11-1404 min
Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour Podcast - Live from DublinIn today's live podcast from Dublin we do a comparative vibe check on the Irish economy compared to the US economy. We speak about the pressure of inflation on investor portfolios and ask what investors should do to guard against that.
In looking like a now-familiar chart plotting the size of the US stock market v. the rest of the world the question is asked as to whether investors are in fact happy running that level of risk, particularly as it pertains to US stocks and tech stocks in particular. One guest suggested...
2025-11-1440 min
Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour Podcast - November 11, 2025 - with Special Guest Rich NuzumIn today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we are delighted to host Rich Nuzum, Head of OCIO at Franklin Templeton, for our usual canter through the macro drivers of investor portfolios - inflation, interest rates, equity markets, geopolitics and other asset classes.
We look at inflation firstly - and ask about expectations, which, remarkably, are diverging along political lines in the US. It seems that inflation is very much in the eye of the beholder - an aspect noted by Rich who suggests that averages "often lie" and are not an accurate depiction of...
2025-11-1428 min
Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour Podcast November 7, 2025 - The Discovery ContinuesIn this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast (our second recorded this week - there will be a special episode featuring Paula Campbell Roberts from KKR released shortly), we focus on recent rumbles in markets around the integrity of the AI story, the increased concern about power costs and how our "discovery phase" around Bitcoin is continuing, with more and more clues added weekly.
We start with the usual inflation analysis and the strain that power costs are likely to have for the lower income consumer. Fixed income volatility continues to be subdued, even...
2025-11-0722 min
Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour - Live in Chicago - October 30, 2025In today's live recording of the Markets Happy Hour Podcast we gathered a group of allocators, hedge fund, private credit and real asset specialists to debate the changing shape of inflation and whether certain assets continued to represent paths to inflation resilience.
We also dug deeper into the private credit landscape and asked whether the recent poor performance in diversified financials firms was merited, and what might be behind it? Stay tuned for some exceptional detailed insight into the trajectory of direct lending and its fee structure.
...
2025-11-0136 min
Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour Podcast October 30, 2025 -with Michael Blayney of Hesta - The Sting in the TailIn this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we sit down with Michael Blayney, who is General Manager, Dynamic Asset Allocation at Hesta, an Australian Superannuation fund with $100 bn AUD in assets under management. The sting in the tail is a reference to AI and the "sting" being the job losses that have moved from murmurs to full-blown company announcements, with more to come.
As always we kick off with our inflation discussion, where it does indeed appear that 3% is now the new normal in the US, where expectations and core measures are all...
2025-10-3034 min
Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour Podcast - October 23, 2025 - Data Lakes and Data DesertsIn this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we are joined by Luba Nikulina, Head of Global Strategy for IFM Investors. She is responsible for leading the development of IFM’s global strategy with a focus on private markets solutions that meet the needs of Australian and global pension funds and their members. Luba has always thought in an orthogonal way, finding links between different factors in the economy and trying to apply a fresh perspective to common problems.
This podcast does not disappoint in this respect - we first focus on the complexity of...
2025-10-2333 min
Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour Podcast - October 17, 2025 Prizes and PricesIn this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we dig through some "anecdata" to see what is driving global markets through white knuckle moments and back again.
We are forced to rely on "anecdata" due to the ongoing shortage of data due to the US government shutdown, so are missing official inflation figures and jobs data. Anecdotally, however, CEOs (Walmart in particular) are reporting that consumers remain resilient (notable given that the Walmart consumers will not be the highest earners) and we can also see firm data that oil prices are hovering close to 5...
2025-10-1723 min
Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour Podcast - October 9, 2025 - Alarms or False Alarms?In this week’s Markets Happy Hour Podcast we discuss alarm bells - where we see them, whether we are finding them where none exist and what we can do about it, if anything. We are joined by former CIO of Royal Mail, Ian McKnight.
A few weeks ago, in a podcast with John Normand of Australian Super, we asked if the US economy was actually stronger than we thought, in that US GDP growth figures looked to be revised upwards and the consumer as well as the stock market proved to be st...
2025-10-0934 min
Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour Podcast - LIVE from San Francisco October 3, 2025In this podcast we feature snippets from our live conversation in San Francisco where we were joined by guests from across the venture capital, programming and fund management spectrum. Over coffee and donuts we debated:
Whether we feel a disconnect between the economic backdrop and the current equity market strength?
Whether there is a bubble in AI?
What inflation feels like on the ground?
It was a lively discussion with a range of cross-generational insights around affordability, the job market and...
2025-10-0620 min
Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour Podcast October 2, 2025: Memes and MilestonesIn today’s Markets Happy Hour podcast we focus on Memes and Milestones, in a week that has been filled with news of a government shutdown in the US, landmark deals and valuations and market highs.
The US government shutdown now is reaching its 3rd day, and has been punctuated with odd bursts of meme-ing involving Sombreros and Mariachi bands as partisan shots across the bough continue. This barely called a ripple in the equity markets though, which continued to grind higher. This is in line with historical equity market resilience in the ca...
2025-10-0320 min
Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour Podcast - September 25, 2025: Bottlenecks, Bailouts and BreakthroughsIn today’s Markets Happy Hour Podcast, we dissect a busy week of news flow including a show down at the UN, growing tensions on the geopolitical front, growing indicators of economic strength and the continuation of the AI big-spending era. We are delighted to be joined by John Normand - Head of Investment Strategy for Australian Super. John's long history in investment strategy and asset allocation gives him a unique way of constructing a narrative with a smooth story arc.
We start our discussion by asking whether the economy in the US is...
2025-09-2530 min
Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour Podcast - September 18, 2025 - A Stitch in TimeIn this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we ask if the Fed has, through taking a "risk based" and "meeting by meeting" approach and making its first cut all year (25 bps) taken a "stitch in time" to avert economic disaster. Inflation remains stubbornly high, and it seems that the Fed is now switching to emphasize the employment side of its dual mandate.
Inflation around the world is not much better, with a rolling 3.8% in the UK and an anemic rate of growth that clearly equates to a loose stagflation, while in Europe the...
2025-09-1826 min
Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour Podcast - September 11, 2025: Show and TellIn today’s Markets Happy Hour podcast we do some show and tell as we have a guest, Pablo Castro, who is an economic commentator and podcast host from Argentina, and we examine the recent election performance down there and compare the experience they have had to that of developed markets.
We start by analyzing the recent inflation numbers from the US and look at the converging soft indicators, whereby consumers are starting to expect a lower rate of inflation going forward. This may now give permission to the Fed to reduce rates at...
2025-09-1326 min
Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour Podcast September 5, 2025 - Labor Day ReflectionsIn today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast Labor is on our mind - as this was recorded just before the disappointing labor statistics were released in the US, showing essentially a summer slowdown and the addition of only 22,000 jobs. All eyes were on these figures as they are likely to serve as a permission slip for an interest rate cut later in the month, and perhaps give a more visceral read on an economy that continues to fire a set of mixed signals.
Inflation remains top of mind, if not top of the range...
2025-09-0519 min
Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour Podcast - August 28, 2025 - with Special Guest Torsten SlokIn this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast - entitled Fireworks and Firings - we kick off the holiday weekend in the US with an engaging discussion with Torsten Slok, Chief Economist of Apollo Group.
We start with a "vibe check" on the US economy - citing the consensus expectations for growth (falling but positive at around 1%) and inflation (stable and tending towards rising north of the magic 2% target - with consensus in the 3% range). This combination would generally point more towards a stagflationary outcome than a buoyant one, and it does beg the...
2025-08-2934 min
Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour Podcast - August 21, 2025 - Hole in One?In this week's short Markets Happy Hour Podcast, I round out a trip to South America by taking stock of the lessons from the "labs" on the ground here and what we can learn for Developed market economies wrestling with "more of the same".
We start by citing the 3.8% inflation surprise in the UK, and the cold water that that poured on interest rate cut expectations, which, when coupled with a sell off in the 30 UK Gilts (they reached the highest level they have seen since 1998) suggests a squeeze from both sides...
2025-08-2220 min
Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour Podcast August 14, 2025 - with Special Guest Dr. David KellyIn this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast - subtitled - Notes from a Laboratory - I am recording from Buenos Aires, which has been described to me as like a "laboratory" for economic policy. However, we are talking much more about the global economic outlook here. As usual we start with inflation, where David shares caution regarding the recent inflation numbers in the US where persistent services inflation may have been masked by falling oil prices. We ask if this is a long term trend, and he suggests that it is not, and that the upward pressure on inflation...
2025-08-1529 min
Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour Podcast - August 8, 2025, Resilience and retreatIn today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we reflect on 6 days spent in Chile, and the insights from a conversation with Jose Manuel Silva of LarrainVial Asset Management, who shared details of how Chile is responding to the current tariff environment.
It has been a week of much news flow - from the labor statistics surprise at the end of last week, which led to a flurry activity including the firing of the Head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which spooked markets briefly - raising the question as to what data can be...
2025-08-0829 min
Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour Podcast July 31, 2025 - A Twist in the TaleIn today's Markets Happy Hour podcast we are recording in the middle of a flurry of trade news flow on the eve of the August 1 tariff deadline. We know, as we record, that the deadline has been extended by 90 days with respect to Mexico and much uncertainty is still in place. However the "twist" in the tale or the "plot twist" of the title refers to the subtle but perceptible change in how the US is being regarded in these trade negotiations as it increasingly flexes its muscle and grows more confident, seemingly leaving its counterparties with little morale...
2025-07-3117 min
Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour Podcast - July 24, 2025 - Tariffs, Transmission and Tall Tales - w/Jon ChesshireIn this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we tackle the mid-summer silly season in which an extraordinary number of "tall tales" and distractions seem to be flooding the zone. Our special guest this week is Jon Chesshire, Managing Principal of Sindia Capital, who is returning for his second appearance on the podcast.
One persistent theme is tariffs though, and in analyzing their impact on the economy we are increasingly focused on the new economy/old economy impact, which is diverging sharply. As old economy stocks are wrestling with low margins, low pricing power...
2025-07-2525 min
Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour Podcast - With Special Guest Euan Munro - July 17, 2025; The Waiting GameIn today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we are delighted to be joined by Euan Munro, former CEO of Newton Asset Management and a well-known commentator on market conditions and multi-asset investing.
We start by reflecting on the slightly higher than expected inflation numbers in the US, ask "Will he stay or will he go?" with respect to the Fed Chairman, and analyze how markets have been mulling over this essential question - as expressed by the 30 year bond yield, the S&P and the US dollar.
The...
2025-07-1732 min
Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour Podcast - July 10, 2025 - Copper Cooks and Coffee BoilsIn today's slightly more compressed markets happy hour podcast it is all about tariffs again, and not only are tariffs (whether on copper imports or Brazil - both at 50%) at records again, but US policy is starting to change the course of international politics and not just foreign relations - for this, see Brazil.
Other news was a little lighter as the US press gave considerable coverage to the tragic flooding in central Texas. There has been little movement in the rate of inflation, although expectations remain more muted then previously and this...
2025-07-1118 min
Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour Podcast - July 4, 2025 - Reflections on Independence Day with special guestIn this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we are joined by frequent macro commentator Stephen Isaacs, who frequently appears on Bloomberg and other channels. He is an experienced Asian investor and former trader. He asks the question for the ages: Is US exceptionalism over or simply over-priced?
We cycle through our usual themes of inflation, economic indicators, interest rates, equity markets (and the sectors that are in focus) as well as geo-politics and the US dollar. We end with a discussion of whether politics and policy are "broken" as some commentators have suggested...
2025-07-0429 min
Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour Podcast - June 27, 2025 - The Calm after the StormToday's Markets Happy Hour Podcast comes to you from France, where I am attending my 25th year business school reunion. It would be fascinating to reflect on where the world economy was 25 year ago - I'll do that next week.
This week reflects on the fascinating chapter now being written after the storm (or after this storm), in which markets are rallying once more to all time highs, the dollar is at a 44 month low and bonds seem to be presenting a mixed bag to investors.
What...
2025-06-2720 min
Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittSpecial Bonus Markets Happy Hour Podcast - June 25, 2025 - The Situation in the Middle EastIn this special bonus podcast we bring you a timely discussion with a Middle East strategist and expert reporting on the situation in the region, as of today, June 25, when a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran continues to hold and narratives shift as to the effect of the US bombing on Iran nuclear's ambitions - whether obliteration or a set-back had been achieved.
Kawa Hassan is a Fellow at The Stimson Center in Brussels, where he is a nonresident fellow at its Middle East and North Africa program, as well as an...
2025-06-2528 min
Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour Podcast June 19, 2025 - The Heat is On - With Special Guest Robert MorierIn this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast, we note how, as we approach mid-summer, the Heat is on, both literally, and at a geopolitical level.
Our special guest this week is Robert Morier, a Professor at Drexel University, with a particular focus on venture and entrepreneurship, as well as the host of the Dakota Live podcast, advisor and surf life guard. His insights the job market for graduates, the use of AI among his student cohort and capital allocation inside and outside the US provide useful context to our broader market observations.
2025-06-2032 min
Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour Podcast June 13, 2025 - A Mid-Summer Reprieve - But Not for the US dollarIn today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we look at the state of affairs in markets as we approach mid-summer and marvel at the fact that all assets seem relatively subdued in terms of activity - with the exception of the US dollar.
US inflation has been modest (2.4%), which is leading to a siren call for more rate cuts, although the US Fed has still resisted pressure - despite the fact that other central banks around the world are clearly on a downward trajectory with their monetary policy.
...
2025-06-1418 min
Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour Podcast June 5, 2025 - Biting the Hand that Feeds Us?In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we examine a week that has been a little lack luster for equities as tariff U-turns continue, the geopolitical picture remains murky and as divergence on inflation and interest rates create unexpected openings for non-US assets.
We look to the potential penalties for non-US investors holding US investments that are buried in the Big Beautiful Bill and ask whether we can take non-US investor appetite for US assets for granted, and if we can take foreign students’ interest in US institutions for granted as uncertainty looms ov...
2025-06-0624 min
Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour Podcast - May 29, 2025 - A Rose by Any Other NameIn today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we ponder whether the prevailing narrative in the new market era is less a long-form narrative, and more a series of Youtube shorts - short vignettes which can literally capture the mood of a day, and then fizzle out entirely.
A case in point was the changing of the narrative around the judicial ruling that seemed to "void" the tariffs of the Trump administration (the US Court of International Trade) and then the ruling itself was put on hold pending an appeal by the White House. This...
2025-05-3022 min
Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour Podcast - May 23, 2025: Sun Downers and Bond VigilantesThis week's podcast is coming to you a day late due to a typical May milestone - a high school graduation. It was fortuitous though as it enabled us to capture the latest development in tariffs, a new threat against the EU in the form of 50% tariffs, a move that send EU stocks into a late week tailspin.
Other developments include the Big Beautiful Tax Bill passing the house, and we analyze what this means for the fiscal deficit as well as the behavior of the bond market - which has continued to...
2025-05-2315 min
Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour Podcast May 15, 2025 - Live from NYC - A Fever Dream?In this week's podcast we reflect on what some commentators have described as a "fever dream" - the essential round trip of US markets since the beginning of the year, whereby they have recently made up lost ground - despite tremendous month to month and intra-week volatility. So should we proceed as if the past few months - including the post Liberation day crisis - never happened?
We first look at the hard data - inflation is subdued although this may be a temporary state pending the effect of tariffs. When parsing the...
2025-05-1624 min
Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour Podcast - May 8, 2025 - Another Kind of US Exceptionalism?In today's slightly shorter podcast - due to a pending Bloomberg appearance - we discuss the transition from the tariff setting stage to the deal-making stage and markets have responded with enthusiasm.
The deals to date - when probed - may have over-promised and under-delivered though, and there may be little "there" there, upon examination. For example in the US/UK deal it seems to have been restricted to cars and metal on the parts of the UK exports and agricultural products and Boeing orders on the part of UK imports. It is...
2025-05-0911 minMarkets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour Podcast - Is the Economy Anti-Fragile?
2025-05-0234 min
Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour Podcast - Live from Barcelona - April 24, 2025In today's markets happy hour podcast we ask whether the swing from American Exceptionalism to Sell USA is another swing of the pendulum which has gone too far too fast.
The podcast was recorded with a mixed audience of European investors and US investors in Europe at a conference, so we had a unique opportunity to discuss macro conditions on the ground in Europe and the reason for the relatively resilient bounce back in economies such as Spain. We talk about why some of the so-called headwinds in Europe - such as the...
2025-04-2528 min
Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour Podcast - Are We There Yet?It has been a slightly less eventful week this week than last week, but it has still been characterized by a flooding of the zone from court disputes, immigration disputes, defunding of Ivy League institutions, unresolved trade negotiations, to interest rate cuts and pauses. The atmosphere has been charged as the rhetoric has increased, particularly between the president and the Chairman of the Federal Reserve.
Recession chatter has continued unabated, and we analyze the nature of this potential recession - event driven, v. structural or cyclical and ask what that means for median...
2025-04-1822 min
Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour Podcast - LIVE from Baltimore - Towson University - April 10, 2025In this LIVE Markets Happy Hour Podcast, which we hosted at Towson University in Baltimore, we hosted a group of industry professionals and finance students from Towson University and Loyola University. It has been a tumultuous week, and we reflected on the fact that this was the third podcast of the week, each one responding to a new twist in news flow.
As of the markets close on Thursday April 10, we discussed the reprieve in the US CPI number - which was a respectable 2.4%, although noted the dulling effect of energy prices as...
2025-04-1136 min
Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittSpecial Markets Happy Hour Podcast - April 9, 2025 - Upping the AnteWe are back with another Markets Happy Hour Podcast today to discuss the recent movements in the prevailing trade war as both sides up the ante. And now the US Treasury as well as other long term government bonds around the world have entered the chat . . they are selling off, undermining the previous good news that lower rates suggested and leading to conspiracy theories as to why.
We examine the status of the US dollar and US treasuries as a safe haven, look at where there may be others and ask where the...
2025-04-0917 min
Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittSpecial Markets Happy Hour Podcast: April 7 Signal, Noise and Strong MedicineTune in for today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast in which we discuss the dramatic developments since the tariff announcement on April 2, as we parse market reaction - separate the pre-existing conditions from the new ailment facing markets, and the medicine which the markets just received.
We argue that the medicine is more akin to an amputation - a limb - or that of international trade as we knew it, sourcing goods from countries that could produce them more cheaply - with a comparative advantage - has essentially been cut off. We have to...
2025-04-0725 min
Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour Podcast April 3 - LIVE from Dallas - The Morning AfterWhat a day we chose to hold our once rescheduled Markets Happy Hour Podcast in Dallas. We were hosted in the glorious surroundings of Old Parkland in the Executive Board Room and enjoyed a dialogue with a broad audience of family office investors, real estate, oil and gas and private credit experts.
We naturally talked about tariffs - a lot, and showed slides that show that the recent tariffs will lead to the highest effective rate of US tariffs in decades. Throughout today it is clear that this is being met with severe...
2025-04-0425 min
Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour Podcast March 28, 2025 - View from Over the BorderIn this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast - which comes to you from over the Canadian Border and Banff, Alberta - we discuss the brewing uncertainty as the market quarter nears. In what has been the worst quarter for the S&P since 2023 we have wrestled with an unprecedented volume of news flow, noise - some of which even contains some "Signal".
We look at the inflation numbers within the US which are not quite as reassuring as in Europe, where the next interest rate cut is all but assured. In the US...
2025-03-2827 min
Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour - LIVE from Charlotte - March 20, 2025 - Detoxes and DisconnectionsIn this very special Live Markets Happy Hour Podcast we gathered in Charlotte, North Carolina, at the Sunflower Baking Company, Koda location to discuss whether markets were detoxing on the way down from their sugar high, and how not everyone was feeling the pain globally.
With the benefit of an audience that spanned business owners, healthcare professionals, asset owners and asset managers, we discussed inflation, the reaction of the US Fed to tariffs and whether they might be "transitory" in their inflationary effect, as well as whether there even was a Trump put...
2025-03-2125 min
Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour Podcast - Some Perspective - March 14, 2025In today's podcast - much abbreviated due to travel logistics - we get to the heart of the recent market downturn, the uncertainty coursing through markets and why it is damaging, as well as the surge in interest in European stocks - value stocks in particular.
Gold is riding high amid this uncertainty, while domestic political (government shutdown) drama continues to add to the flurry of noise.
We attempt to add some perspective to the current market downturn - citing the fact that the median S&P...
2025-03-1410 min
Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour Podcast - LIVE from Salt Lake City - March 6, 2025In this second live series in as many weeks, we reflect on the recent volatility around tariff news, and with the benefit of two audience members focused on, respectively, emerging markets public equities and private equity and venture capital, we discuss how this uncertainty is being felt and acted upon.
Europe seems to be experiencing a renaissance of sorts this week - with an indication of the release of Germany's fiscal brake bringing an almost giddiness to sentiment there - with expenditure likely to be as much as 900 billion Euro. This may be...
2025-03-0730 min
Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour Podcast - LIVE from Tampa, February 27, 2025 - In the CrosshairsIn this week's live Markets Happy Hour Podcast, we traveled to Tampa, Florida, and were privileged to share insights from post-hurricane recovery and consumer sentiment on the ground, as well as observations from professionals who focus on private debt and venture debt.
We started with a discussion of recent market developments - what some have termed Trump 2.1. The fall in the 10 year yield, the dollar and the oil price may stack up like a "wish list" of the new administration, but it actually seemed to be a reaction to less than positive market...
2025-02-2829 min
Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour Podcast - February 21 - What’s Next for Europe?In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we come to you from Europe, and do a deep dive into that region - its stock market and its prospects. In Europe, as is the case elsewhere, there is a bit of reeling from the clear conclusions both from the Munich security conference and its aftermath - that the transatlantic alliances as we had known them for the last few decades no longer exist.
This new world order will take some time to digest although markets, as ever, may have either cut through the noise...
2025-02-2219 min
Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour Podcast - February 14, 2025 . . I’m not Loving It . .or the New AbnormalThis week's podcast comes to you one day late - on Valentine's Day - due to travel, but is this love we feel in the Air? Hardly . . there is rather a sense of inundation with government policies, geopolitical surprises and unconventional developments that has led the sense of a new "abnormal".
An unwelcome US inflation print - 3% annualized - in January initially sent markets into a negative tailspin with stocks falling and the US ten year yield spiking. . but then, it was revealed that the devil was in the detail. While energy prices...
2025-02-1426 min
Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour Podcast - February 6, 2025 - Spend, Spend, SpendIn this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we digest the challenging month of January and reflect on where we stand now that markets have contended with President Trump's grand entrance.
And President Trump knows how to make an entrance. The torrent of executive actions in the first few week's of the administration (54 to date) have created a deluge for markets who are still grappling with the election results, the warp speed movement of technology and a post-inflationary reality that is still only coming into focus. There have been a series of announcements in...
2025-02-0725 min
Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour Podcast - Live from St Louis - Jan 30, 2025, with special guest Brittany LewisIn this special live podcast we come to you from St. Louis where we run through a tumultuous week in what has turned out to be a tumultuous month and feature our first guest on the Markets Happy Hour Podcast. Today we chat with Brittany Lewis, who joined the Olin Business School at Washington University as an Assistant Professor of Finance in July 2022. Her areas of expertise are Banking and Financial Institutions, Finance/Investments, Financial Economics and we hear about her research on financial regulation and some of the unintended consequences that it can have.
2025-01-3128 min
Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour Podcast Jan 24, 2025In this shorter holiday week in the US, a flurry of executive orders have "flooded the zone" but markets are struggling for direction, perhaps feeling a sense of confusion and overload. We discuss the impact of this lack of certainty on different assets, the dollar and the likely response of the US Federal reserve.
We turn then to something a little different - inspired by the impressive planning that the team behind the Getty Villa in Pacific Palisades put into action to save the Villa from destruction, we ask whether failing to prepare...
2025-01-2526 min
Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour Podcast January 16, 2025 - Going All InWith 4 days to go until inauguration markets have been vacillating between enthusiasm and trepidation about the expectations for the incoming Trump administration 2.0. We know that policy change on the horizon will be abundant, and much of that is already being factored in, with companies such as Meta, McDonalds and Walmart preemptively abandoning DEI programs such as diverse slate hiring and even DEI training, and disbandment of asset owner alliances relating to Net Zero commitments.
There has been more volatility in fixed income markets as we ask whether the stock market is starting to...
2025-01-1725 min
Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour Podcast - January 9, 2025 - Fire and IceIn this week's Markets Happy Hour podcast we were sadly not live from Dallas, where we had hoped to be hosting a group of you at the gorgeous Old Parkland campus. Unfortunately a forecast winter storm got in the way of our plans, and we will be rescheduling that for a later date - hopefully well out of the winter storm woods - in April.
On a day that markets are closed for President Carter's funeral, we reflect on some unease at the start to the year, and the return of the good...
2025-01-1024 min
Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour Podcast - January 2, 2025 - A Chill In the Air for the New YearIn today's slightly shorter New Year edition we reflect on a chilly start to the year - both literally and metaphorically. The New Year's Eve terrorist attack in New Orleans in the US was a chilling reminder of the near-shoring of overseas terror, while the death of President Jimmy Carter at 100 crowded out some of the chatter around the incoming President Trump.
Otherwise all forecasts are centering on Maganomics, and the future looks bleak according to the 222 economists surveyed, not only for the US but especially for its trading partners. We should caution...
2025-01-0319 min
Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour Podcast - December 26, 2024 - The Outlooks Arms RaceAs we race to year end it is the time for Market Outlooks, although this year it seems that the funny holiday videos have outpaced Market Outlooks in fanfare and promotion.
In this podcast we summarize some of recent market outlooks and question their utility. There is another kind of outlook that seems quite a bit more useful however - this Tech in 2025 Outlook from the Wall Street Journal. We go through some of these forecasts and look at their likely implication for a portfolio. See: https://www.wsj.com/tech/personal-tech/life-changing-2025...
2024-12-2721 minMarkets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour Podcast - Live from Chicago - December 19, 2024In this special live podcast we host an audience in Chicago - we cycle through our usual indicators that are relevant to putting an investment portfolio into context. These indicators are inflation, interest rates, equity markets, other assets and geopolitics. Our podcast came right after the Fed's third rate cut, and we debated whether inflation was ultimately in retreat, as well as the fundamental differences between European markets and US markets. The topic of the day is the questioning of American Exceptionalism and we examine investor exuberance around equity markets.
2024-12-2425 minMarkets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour Podcast - December 10 - LIVE from DublinThe Markets Happy Hour Podcast has its roots in the virtual "water cooler" discussion about markets and implications held weekly at Moneta every Friday at 11 am. While we moved this to a "Tea with the CIO" and now a "Markets Happy Hour" we have rarely made it a live discussion with a live audience - until now!
Welcome to our first such discussion, live from a bustling Dublin City Centre and the Daly Room at Trinity College Dublin, Aoifinn's alma mater. Hot on the heels of an Investment Committee Meeting of the Trinity College Endowment, Aoifinn discusses:
2024-12-1119 min
The Fiftyfaces PodcastRaudline Etienne of Daraja Capital: The Power of Being First When Scouring for TalentRaudline Etienne is the Founder and CEO of Daraja Capital, an investment and advisory firm providing seed capital to new, diversely owned, private fund managers and independent sponsors. She has over 25 years of experience in institutional investing and consulting and previously served as CIO for the New York State Common Retirement Fund, the third largest public fund in the U.S. Prior to her role as CIO, she spent more than a decade advising institutional investors at various firms and holds a number of trustee and board roles. We start by dis...
2024-12-1035 minMarkets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour Podcast - December 7 - tricks and treats in an Advent calendar On slide 8 and around the 11 minute mark I say Intel instead of Nvidia -It was Nvidia which reached $3.4 trillion in market cap rising by 816% since February 14, 2021, while Intel lost 59% of its market cap over the same period*
5 days in to our Advent Calendar and already December has provided lots of tricks and treats.
We have seen more market highs in the US, and illustrate why America First just keeps going - more than ever.
Over the last decade, in price terms, the MSCI Europe has lagged the S&P 500 by an average compounded ra...
2024-12-0818 minMarkets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour - November 28 - Thanksgiving EditionThis Thanksgiving 2024 it seems appropriate to reflect on where we were this time last year and what we have to be thankful for:
Inflation - being in check and certainly in reverse since one year ago
Economic Growth - steady as she goes, although struggling in Europe Mortgage Rates - slowly tracking downwards although far from last year's 22 year high (USA)
The US election campaign is over - regardless of the outcome, the end of the campaigns in this Election Year like no other is something to behold
Soft landing - the fact that we have had one...
2024-11-2920 min
The Fiftyfaces PodcastFrank Dixon: Why System Change can be the Answer to EverythingFrank Dixon is an expert on Systems Change. He has been interested in sustainability since his MBA, joined one of the first ESG research firms, saw ESG wasn’t enough, and has been working on system change ever since. Our conversation traces the evolution of Frank’s thinking around the need for system change and what this actually means. He established Global System Change and developed the System Change Investing (SCI) approach. It provided the first model for rating companies on system change performance and integrating system change into corporate sustainability strategies.He al...
2024-11-2636 minMarkets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour Podcast November 21, 2024Topics discussed today:
A subdued week in equity markets - but not in Bitcoin, which has flirted with the $100,000 level as a wide open era of deregulation beckons.
Despite growing geopolitical tensions and nuclear saber rattling, markets remain sanguine and unrattled.
The first dusting of snow has led to a chill in the air around future energy inflation and Natural Gas stocks are ticking upwards.
Within equity markets stocks with high margins are dominating defensive value and dividend paying stocks, while companies are increasingly confident in passing price rises through to customers.
We study the slow motion pension revolution in the U...
2024-11-2320 min
The Fiftyfaces PodcastCarol Geremia of MFS Investment Management - Why Fiduciary Responsibility is always in FashionCarol Geremia is president of MFS Investment Management® (MFS®) and head of Global Distribution. She leads the firm's worldwide client-facing teams as well as product and marketing strategy. Since joining MFS in 1984, Carol has held roles focused primarily on fiduciary responsibility, stewardship and sustainability, and she has actively engaged with clients at all levels to ensure that the firm builds products and services aligned with their needs. Carol is a member of the Investment Company Institute's Board of Governors, the City Year Seven Generations Board, the MFS Charitable Oversight Committee and as an Advisory Council member for Bridge Over Tr...
2024-11-1940 min
Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour Podcast November 14, 2024A brief look back at themes and market movements so far this week:
Inflation - is it now tamed, or is the 3.3% core level too high for comfort? Why inflation is more complex than a single number - we look at the cumulative effect of inflation and how it is such an inherently subjective measure
The focus - on both sides of the Atlantic - on saving money whether through the to be created "Department of Government Efficiency" in the US or the "Office for Value for Money" - will this be inflationary or the opposite?
The new...
2024-11-1421 min
Markets Happy Hour Podcast with Aoifinn DevittMarkets Happy Hour with Aoifinn Devitt, November 14, 2024A brief look back at themes and market movements so far this week:
Inflation - is it now tamed, or is the 3.3% core level too high for comfort?
Why inflation is more complex than a single number - we look at the cumulative effect of inflation and how it is such an inherently subjective measure
The focus - on both sides of the Atlantic - on saving money whether through the to be created "Department of Government Efficiency" in the US or the "Office for Value for Money" - will this...
2024-11-1421 min
The Fiftyfaces PodcastSteve Foresti: Senior Advisor at Wilshire: From a Vision to RealitySteve Foresti is a Senior Advisor, Investments, at Wilshire, where he has spent almost 30 years. He previously held a role as Chief Investment Officer, among other roles and is currently in a part-time role as he pursues other interests. Steve was recommended to us as a guest because of his extraordinary career arc in which he overcame a substantial loss of vision as a child to pursue a fulfilling career. We begin by discussing Steve’s career journey and turn then to the nature of the condition that caused his loss of vision from the age o...
2024-11-1333 min
The Fiftyfaces PodcastMatt Whineray: Former CEO of NZ Super Fund: Towards a Total Fund Portfolio ApproachMatt Whineray recently retired from the role of Chief Executive Officer at the NZ$77 bn NZ Super Fund, where he had spent close to 16 years in a series of roles, culminating in CEO but which included 4 years as CIO. He previously worked in a series of corporate finance roles, and currently holds a number of Chair and Board roles. Our conversation starts with his early career in finance, which saw him move from New Zealand to New York and Hong Kong. We discuss the moment he knew that he wanted to take his family back to...
2024-11-0641 min
The Fiftyfaces PodcastTiffany Wilding of PIMCO: Reflections from the Room where it HappenedTiffany Wilding is a managing director and economist based in the Newport Beach office of PIMCO. She leads PIMCO’s Cyclical Forum, crafts the firm’s outlook for the global economy, and analyzes key macro risks for the firm’s Investment Committee. Previously, she was a U.S. interest rate strategist in two firms and a Treasury market policy analyst for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where she helped structure and implement the central bank’s response to the 2008 financial crisis.Our discussion starts with Tiffany’s path through finance and spends quite a bit of ti...
2024-10-3035 min
The Fiftyfaces PodcastBonus Episode: Veena Aiyer of QRKIEZ - Get your quirk on - Connection, Community and Empowerment for Neurodivergent IndividualsVeena Aiyer has launched a community app for neurodiverse audiences called QRKIEZ. The goal of QRKIEZ is to be an innovative platform designed to support neurodivergent individuals by fostering social connections, providing mentorship and offering tailored professional services. She previously worked in a series of startups and tech companies. In our conversation Veena describes her upbringing in India and the path that took her to the US. She describes her own discovery of neurodivergence and what prompted her to seek to create a means for other neurodivergent individuals to connect and exchange ideas. We discuss what is missing in the job m...
2024-10-2520 min