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JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Is a Lower Inflation target a Bad Idea? Is Afrimat Offering Value?
š This week on Worldwide Markets, Simon dives into a packed show covering inflation, earnings, property deals, and opportunities in local stocks. Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets and Shyft ā your gateway to global investing. ššø š Inflation Target Cut ā A Bad Idea? ⢠SA may shift to a 3% inflation target š ⢠Risks of higher interest rates š¬ ⢠Real rates already sky-high š šµ Weaker US Dollar & Tech Gains ⢠Trumpās weaker dollar policy in motion šŗšøš ⢠MAG7 & Nasdaq benefit: 49%+ offshore revenue š„ļøš ⢠S&P 500 and Russell 2000 lag š¢ Sibanye-Stillwater* Diversifies ⢠Buys US recycling business ā»ļø ⢠Adds silver, copper, and skills šŖš§ ⢠Expands beyond PGMs and gold...
2025-07-22
18 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Alphabet is way Cheap | Nasty US economic data
Ā šĀ Episode Summary: This week, Simon unpacks Alphabetās surprisingly cheap valuation, troubling US economic data, South African CPI figures, Trumpās trade mess, and the implications of Aspenās customer fallout. Plus, he previews the Berkshire AGM and upcoming JustOneLap events. š US Economic Data Shock Q1 GDP: Expected +0.2%, came in at ā0.3% š¬ Imports surged 40%, skewing GDP down Retail inventories and trade balance signal deeper issues PCI inflation at 1.8% vs. 1.2% expected Recession fears intensify US GDP Q1 2025 šŗšø Trumpās 100-Day Trade Tangle Trump promised 90 trade...
2025-04-30
21 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Buying some Coronation
Quick update, I buying Coronation (JSE code:CML) at ±3750c. View my portfolio ==>> www.SimonBrown.co.za
2023-02-03
01 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Is it over for construction stocks? (#515)
Murray & Roberts (JSE code: MUR) horror update. "working capital requirements are especially acute" "financial results for the six months period ending 31 December 2022, to be at least 100% down" This is not South Africa at all, it's Australia and the US. We've seen Wilson Bayly (JSE code: WBO) walk away from their Australian operations. Low margins and bankers not keen on bonding projects are going to crunch this industry globally. I would suggest Aveng (JSE code: AEG) is not immune either. The only time this industry really made money was in...
2022-10-20
17 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
"The worst is still to come" (#514)
2022-10-12
19 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Rampant dollar (#513)
Simon Shares Remgro (JSE code: REM) plans to unbundle its stake in Grindrod (JSE code: GND). There were ideas that maybe Remgro would take out Grindrod, but the unbundling is going in a different direction and Remgro unbundles shares they don't want. Remember also that after the unbundling expect weakness in the Grindrod share price for a few weeks. They've held them since 2011 and hold a 24.81% stake For every 100 Remgro you'll receive 30.70841 Grindrod shares. Last day to trade (LDT) is 11 October 2022. You'll receive them with a base cost that Remgro paid, that value is still to be determined...
2022-09-28
18 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Has inflation peaked? What of interest rates? (#512)
hh Simon Shares FedEx (NYSE code: FDX) spooks the market by withdrawing guidance and saying demand is collapsing. Thungela Resources (JSE code TGA) went ex-dividend to 6000c. Wilson Bayly (JSE code: WBO) is letting their Australian operations go bust, not giving any more financial assistance. Has inflation peaked? Local inflation down at 7.6% for August from 7.8%. US August inflation at 8.3% from 8.5%. UK August 9.9% from 10.1%. EU 10.1% up from 9.8%. Europe and UK still have a winter of energy crisis to contend with. US and local looks to have topped, but energy/petrol still needs watching. Food inflation...
2022-09-21
19 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Ten books for traders and investors (#511)
Simon Shares Trading Trading in the Zone ā Mark Douglas (detailed review) Trend Following ā Michael Covel (detailed review) Reminiscences of a Stock Operator ā Edwin Lefevre Market Wizards - Jack Schwager The Complete Turtle Trader: How 23 Novice Investors Became Overnight Millionaires - Michael Covel Investing The Little Book of Common Sense Investing - John C. Bogle One up on Wall Street ā Peter Lynch (detailed review) Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits ā Phil Fisher (detailed review) Effective Investor ā Franco Busetti The Little Book that Beats the Market - Joel Greenblatt General Thinking, Fast and Slow - Daniel Kahne...
2022-09-15
18 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
The bear and bull case for investing in Shoprite (#510)
Simon Shares Anthony Clark on small caps Purity baby powder products were recalled by TigerBrands (JSE code: TBS) due to traces of asbestos. PSG (JSE code: PSG) unbundling effective at close on Tuesday. Holders at the close will receive 3.87 PSG Konsult (JSE code: KST) 1.82 Curro (JSE code: COH) 0.12 Kaap Agri (JSE code: KAL) 1.04 CA Sales (JSE code: CAA) 1.02 Stadio (JSE code: SDO) The bear and bull case for investing in Shoprite Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) results saw the stock down 7.5%. Let's dig into what the market maybe didn't like. Only 10% earnings growth? With one...
2022-09-07
20 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Greylisting, what is it and what if it happens to SA? (#509)
Simon Shares Save R500k with a deposit. ETF closing prices are an absolute mess. Cashbuild (JSE code: CSB) results see them coming back to earth after a pandemic boost. Education stocks all published results. ADvTECH* (JSE code: ADH) is my pick, but all showing student growth and cash generation. Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) gets permission to turn their money market account into a bank account. Grindrod (JSE code: GND) currently runs the service for Shoprite and African Bank is buying Grindrod Bank. Walmart (NYSE code: WMT) is set to make an offer to the Massmart (JSE code...
2022-08-31
18 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Spur looking good and Sasol dividends (#508)
Simon Shares Nasdaq (650 points), S&P500 (80 points) & Euro Stoxx50 (22 points) trades all closed. FTSE100 still going currently +100 points. Old Mutual BEE deal, will go into details, but it only closes in late October so no rush. Spur (JSE code: SUR) looking very good. PE ±15x and DY ±5% From the Spur earnings call "And we know that only 18% of the South African adult population represents 80% of economically viable consumer segment." Revenue at record with space to get margins back to pre-pandemic levels. Net income margin was ±5%, historically over 20%. [caption id="attachment_36416" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Spur; revenue, net income, NI mar...
2022-08-24
21 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Is Thungela still a buy? (#507)
Simon Shares BHP Group* (JSE code: BHG) results, have we peaked? Absa (JSE code: ABG) results, but maybe the ore important point of the results is their expectation that prime will hit 11% early in 2023. Chip shortage seems to be easing. Nasdaq is in a bull market, +20% off mid-June lows. Brent oil falling. Current petrol price reduction is 260c for September. UK inflation is 10.1% for July. Charles Savage tells us his fav ETFs Rochelle Writes, pay down debt or save more with high rates. Thungela resources (JSE code: TGA) still a buy? R60 dividend, 40% forward DY
2022-08-17
23 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Embrace the risk (#506)
Simon Shares Renergen* (JSE code: REN) the Central Energy Fund has successfully completed their due diligence on the R1billion, final approval is still required. Mpact (JSE code: MPT) results. US jobs data and unemployment continue to belie the recession talk. US inflation for July was 8.5%, a good number. A gallon of gas has fallen below $4 in the U.S. for the first time since March. Credit Suisse has lowered its 2023 UK GDP forecast to -0.6% from 0.5%; expects the UK to enter a recession from Q4 2022 until Q3 2023. Elon Musk sold $6.9-billion (R14.5-billion) of his shares in...
2022-08-10
20 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Thereās only thing we can control ā the price we pay (#505)
Simon Shares Massmart (JSE code: MSM) update, retail margins are being squeezed, the exception is clothing retail. Thungela Resources (JSE code: TGA) very strong trading update. JSE (JSE code: JSE) results, strong. Nancy Pelosi lands in Taiwan and markets don't really care and China will complain - but this is not leading to war. Uber (NYSE code: UBER) finally hits cash flow positive. OPEC+ 100,000 b/d output hike, expectations (hopes?) were for 4-5x that and the second smallest increase since 1986. Earn 11% with Retail Savings Bonds What's the only thing we control in markets The price...
2022-08-03
20 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Pick 'n Pay catching Shoprite, can they overtake? (#504)
Simon Shares New energy rules for South Africa. Who wins? Silverleaf Investments on Easy Equities. Know what you're buying. Food retailer updates, Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) winning. Pick n Pay (JSE code: PIK) bounding back and Woolies* (JSE code: WHL) struggling. Cashbuild (JSE code: CSB) and Mr Price (JSE code: MRP) updates show consumers under pressure IMF upgrades SA GDP growth for 2022 to 2.3% up from 1.9% they expected in April. Results from Kumba Iron Ore (JSE code: KIO) and Anglo Platinum (JSE code: AMS) US data Wednesday and Thursday. Omnia (JSE code: OMN) was ex-div 800c on Wednesday and...
2022-07-27
20 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
The bear market, how much more to go? (#503)
Simon Shares Local June inflation, 7.4%, MPC tomorrow. BHP Group* (JSE code: BHG) update, they are worried. ArcelorMittal South Africa (JSE code: ACL) trading update says global growth and recessions fears "present challenges for the outlook of commodities and steel demand in the next 12 to 18 months.". China's holdings of U.S. debt fell below $1 trillion for the first time since 2010 Alviva (JSE code: AVV) delisting at 2500c. Brent oil trade keeps on trucking, buy below $100 exit $113. Brent oil Nasdaq, triggered a buy, waiting for confirmation which is a close above 12,250 while 7 EMA remains above 21 EMA. Building resilient portfolios...
2022-07-20
20 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Dividends, love them but be careful (#502)
Simon Shares US June inflation 9.1%, and core inflation was also up a 5.7%! Still stage 4. Rand continues to weaken. Back backs between 4 July 2022 & 8 July 2022 Naspers JSE code: NPN) bought 659,095 shares at an average price of R2 648.3315/share for R1.745 billion (US$104.73 million). Prosus (JSE code: PRX) bought 6,240,339 PRX shares at an average price of ā¬67.1361/share for ā¬418.95 million (US$428.59 million). SARB now considers cryptocurrencies as a financial asset and will create regulations around them. This means cryptocurrencies can be listed on SA exchange platforms but the process will take 12-18 months. Dividends, love them but be careful. But we a...
2022-07-13
18 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Commodities rolling over (#501)
Simon Shares Still stage 6. Rand continues to weaken. Naspers (JSE code: NPN) and Prosus (JSE code: PRX) both are holding well after the hard run the previous Monday on results and buy-back news. Resources under pressure, all of them. Supply chains adjusting Just in time is now just in case Higher inventories Higher costs More localisation Upcoming events; 13 July ~ To short or not to short with Markets.com 14 July ~ JSE Power Hour: Building a resilient portfolio for tough markets
2022-07-06
18 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Celebrating 500 episodes (#500)
Simon Shares Episode #500. Huge thanks to all, I go into some background about the show. Where and how it started, lessons learnt and more. Stage 6, the Rand lost 30c. Sun International* (JSE code: SUI) update for five months to 31 May 2022 shows they are nearly back at pre-pandemic revenue and this while we still had some restrictions and fewer international travellers. Naspers (JSE code: NPN) / Prosus (JSE code: PRX) results. Tencent (Hong Kong code: 700) is 125% of profits. The other businesses are all loss-making and in tough markets. They plan to sell down Tencent and buy back Prosus shares, but...
2022-06-29
21 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Crypto in trouble (#499)
Simon Shares Thungela (JSE code: TGA). Coal prices doing great, production is good but rail is the problem but HEPS is expected at 5800c. If we double for the full year we can expect ±R116 and a dividend of ±R100? Stor-Age* (JSE code: SSS) results are not exciting but steady. Omnia (JSE code: OMN) results were really strong, another special dividend and good future prospects. Orion Minerals (JSE code: ORN) raises money to get their Prieska up and running. Expected to take some 19 months. Amazon prime coming to South Africa next year. It will seriously challenge Takealot, owned by...
2022-06-22
18 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
It's all about the bears, and inflation (#498)
Simon Shares US May inflation, 8.6%. Federal Reserve announced rates last night and surely it was 0.75% for the first time in 28 years? Either we have continued high inflation or a recession, maybe even both? Time for a Paul Volcker and do a 1% raise? It's ugly, Nasdaq and S&P500 both closed at lows for 2022 and are both are now in a bear market. S&P500 draw down at close 13Jun22 And failing a real test or liquidity and exchanges halt withdrawals.
2022-06-15
18 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Are Robinhood's troubles Purple concerns? (#497)
Simon Shares Sygnia (JSE code: SYG) results and a forward dividend of maybe as high as 10%. Local GDP at 1.9% for Q1 2022. The economy has now recovered to its pre-pandemic levels. Consumer cracking? I interviewed Evan Walker 36One Asset Management. Inverse ETFs that go up as the market falls. * I hold ungeared positions. Upcoming events; [events_list limit="3"] ddd Are Robinhood's troubles Purple concerns? [caption id="attachment_34522" align="aligncenter" width="761"] Robinhood since listing vs. Purple Group[/caption] Robindhood Purple Group (Nasdaq code: HOOD) Purple Group* (JSE code: PPE); Listed...
2022-06-09
23 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Commodity demand destruction (#496)
Simon Shares The good news is the US had a green week last week, for the first time in 8 weeks Goldfields (JSE code: GFI) is down on news it paying a chunky 33.8% premium to acquire Canadian Yamana Gold in an all-share deal We finally got the petrol price increase and the 150c fuel levy reduction remains in force, for now. German inflation hits 7.9% for May. Highest since the 1950s. EU inflation for May 8.1%, the highest ever. EU agrees on a partial ban on Russian oil imports Monthly dividends in a JSE equity portfolio Offshore ETFs paying monthly dividends Ā
2022-06-02
19 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Consistent little wins creates wealth (#495)
Simon Shares Results are pouring in, food producers are struggling. Coronation (JSE code: CML) results with DY of over 10% and PE ±9X. Snap Inc (NYSE code: SNAP) profit warning. It now trades at half its listing price. Current under recovery in petrol price is 236c, + the 150c fuel levy suspension means we could see a 386c increase in June to over R25 a litre! Whatās your fav ETF? We ask our readers, Rochelle is first up and likes an offshore ETF with a monthly dividend payment of almost 1%. Hello Eskom, best budget power banks. Slightly better tha...
2022-05-26
18 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Balwin vs. Calgro & Shoprite vs. Pick n Pay (#494)
Simon Shares 10X Investments buying CoreShares. MPC, 0.5% expected. Balwin (JSE code: BWN) results vs. Calgro M3 (JSE code: CGR). Pick n Pay (JSE code: PIK) results vs. Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP). * I hold ungeared positions.
2022-05-19
16 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
When does the tech selloff end? (#493)
Simon Shares US April CPI 8.3%; Core CPI 6.2% (month-on-month core was +0.6%) FOMC Sibanye-Stillwater* (JSE code: SSW) update the market hated. Kaap Agri (JSE code: KAL) results Wandile Sihlobo on agri in SA. New Satrix global healthcare ETF. Thungela Resources (JSE code: TGA) could pay an R100 dividend this year, putting them on a +40% DY. US Tech selloff continues 1-year FAANG returns ° Meta ° Apple ° Amazon ° Netflix ° Alphabet pic.twitter.com/VybsCoWDfh ā Simon Brown (@SimonPB) May 9, 2022 * I hold ungeared positions.
2022-05-12
18 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Stagflation (#492)
Simon Shares Combined Motor Holdings* (JSE code: CMH) results, Best ever. Renergen* (JSE code: REN) cold commissioning of phase 1 going well. New global healthcare ETF coming from Satrix. Currently in IPO and listing 26 May. EU unveils a proposal to ban Russian oil imports within 6 months, all refined oil products by the end of the year. OPEC+ Sees Production From Non-Opec Participants in OPEC+ at 18.2 mln Bpd in May, 600,000 Bpd Lower Than Last Forecast Lyft (Nasdaq code: LYFT) shares fall 26% on disappointing forecast (earnings 75% below expectations) as they say they'll pay drivers more. Intel says chip storage till 2024 at...
2022-05-05
22 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
The world's ten oldest exchanges (#491)
The world's oldest exchanges starting in India all the way through to Amsterdam.
2022-04-28
13 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
History of stock exchanges in South Africa (#490)
Staring in Kimberly in 1881 through to the present Simon details the history of stock exchanges in South Africa.
2022-04-21
21 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Purple results, mixed bag (#489)
Simon Shares US inflation 8.5%, UK 7.0% Capitec* (JSE code: CPI) results and a special dividend. Dave Segall asking about "Looming food and fertiliser shortages" and impact on local agriculture stocks. Purple Group* (JSE code: PPE) trading update (here are my previous expectations). * I hold ungeared positions. Ā
2022-04-14
14 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
What the Rouble teaches us (#488)
Simon Shares I have closed my Nasdaq long position. Still long FTSE100. Purple Group* (JSE code: PPE) trading update. Looks a little better than I expected. MTN (JSE code: MTN) more Nigerian woes. Reports that Woolies* (JSE code: WHL) may be selling David Jones. Elon Musk buys 9.2% of Twitter (NYSE code: TWTR). Moodys upgrades sovereign and banks from negative to stable. Deutsche Bank says: US recession in 2023 and stocks to fall 20% by summer 2023 * I hold ungeared positions. The Rouble is almost back at pre-war levels against the US$. 20% interest rates, capital controls, no foreign selling...
2022-04-07
18 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
2022 movers so far, mostly good (#487)
2022-03-31
23 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Tencent ex-growth. Woe is Napers & Prosus (#486)
Simon Shares Just One Lap is 11 years old :) FOMC, as expected. Local MPC tomorrow. Nasdaq, time to buy? Also FTSE100. Both a technical buy, not taking a view on the fundamentals. Ā Brent almost back at US$120. China opened up already, well Foxcon at least. Tencent results, flat-lining. The end of an era! So says Tencent as revenue grows in single digits, the lowest quarterly number since listing back in 2004. Tencentās declaration is resignation that any expansion will be cautious and controlled. Prosus down 8.2%, Naspers down 8.4%. Prices still look vulnerable ā David Shapiro (@davidshapiro61) March...
2022-03-24
19 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
China makes peace with big tech (#485)
Simon Shares Big banks now all have released results, mostly good albeit off low base. Covid cases in China surge, new lockdowns. Hello, more supply chain mess. People asking if I updated my view on Purple Group* (JSE code: PPE). Nope, volatility likely helping the revenue, but I need new data (results) first. Commodities weak, brent oil now in a technical bear market. China makes peace with tech Prosus (JSE code: PRX) and Naspers (JSE code: NPN) now flying (+20% n Wednesday). Discount still +50%. Reports of WeChat being hit with a massive fine for money laundering?money...
2022-03-17
20 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Prosus/Naspers, is there value in the NAV? (#484)
Simon Shares Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) results, it's all about innovation. Strong un International* (JSE code: SUI) update. War in Europe, commodities still the story. Very volatile, that's expected. But I expect more upside and I am happy to hold. Upcoming events; 17 March ~ JSE Power Hour: Geopolitics, inflation and markets Prosus (JSE code PRX) / Naspers (JSE code: NPN) / Tencent (Hong Kong code: 700) Tencent has been under pressure Naspers and Prosus have been hit even harder Live Prosus discount to net asset value (NAV) is now some 55% after hitting 60%.Ā
2022-03-10
19 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Investing while war rages in Europe (#483)
Simon Shares City Lodge* (JSE code: CLH) results, fair valuation around 800c? BHP Group* (JSE code: BHG) will see a significant reduction in its weighting in Top40 and Resi10 indices. PSG (JSE code: PSG) exiting the JSE. Wilson Bayly Holmes (JSE code: WBO) has lost investor confidence. Murray & Roberts* (JSE code: MUR) results. HEPS at 29c a little light, but back in profit. War in Europe Inflation is the biggest economic issue. Energy, PGMs and agriculture. Will central banks stick to their rate rising trend? People want to buy the Russian ETF, why?
2022-03-03
18 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
2022 Budget review panel (#482)
Wednesday was budget day and our tax experts, AJM Tax, hosted a live panel discussion covering the budget; highlights and low lights. We've included the recording for this week's episode. The panellists were; Divan Botha ā moderator Dr Albertus Marais ~ Director at AJM Tax Laila Razack ~ CFO of Equites Property Fund Simon Brown ~ Founder Just One Lap and host MoneywebNOW
2022-02-24
55 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
What's down with Purple Group? (#481)
Simon Shares Strong Nedbank (JSE code NED) trading update. If you held Steinhoff (JSE code: SNH) when it all went wrong in 2017 you have until 15 May to submit a claim. Oceana (JSE code: OCE), now the CEO quits? * I hold ungeared positions. Upcoming events; 22 April ~ Introducing the CoreShares Total World ETF 06 March ~ JSE Power Hour: Finding income in JSE listings What's down with Purple Group* (JSE code: PPE), owners of EasyEquities? After a high of 349c a month ago it's now 261c. Firstly it's more sellers than buyers.
2022-02-17
16 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Is Facebook ex-growth? (#480)
Simon Shares Great Sappi (JSE code: SAP) results. Strong Hudaco (JSE code: HDC) results. Top40 is trading at all-time highs, as is Resi10 and MidCap is almost there. Kastle back to work barometer shows office attendance in the US is still not back to levels from before the most recent pandemic wave and around 33% (on average) of pre-pandemic levels. Back in November, the average was just over 38%. IPO process explained. Ashburton ETFs have moved over to FNB. Meta Platforms (Nasdaq code: FB); Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp Down 25% on the day of the results. Fell further and now off 43...
2022-02-10
20 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
ARK Big Ideas report 2022 (#479)
Simon Shares PGMs are on the move, most notably palladium and rhodium. But the miners are not. Combined Motor Holdings* (JSE code: CMH) strong trading update. MTN (JSE code: MTN) vs. Vodacom (JSE code: VOD) updates. Who's winning? Strong Astral (JSE code: ARL) update, but for the half ending March - so off low base. Ascendis (JSE code: ASC) looking to sell three businesses, but that won't leave much behind. OPEC+ agrees to a 400k barrel/day increase from March, this was the initial plan from last year. The local CPI basket is changing. Satrix is listing an...
2022-02-03
18 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Markets are spooked (#478)
Simon Shares PGMs are on the move, most notably palladium and rhodium. Oil also still moving, remember the ETN for that. Cashbuild (JSE code: CSB) update shows the pandemic home improvement boom is over. ArcelorMittal South Africa (JSE code: ACL) update sees them into profit and on a PE of under 2x. Steinhoff (JSE code: SNH) settlement approved, but still lots of debt. Markets are spooked Lots to be spooked by; FOMC, it's all happening in March Asset purchases are also to end in March, but what of the US$9trillion of bonds the Fed holds...
2022-01-27
20 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Changes are coming (#477)
Simon Shares BHP Group* (JSE code: BHP) is unifying its dual-listed company (DLC) corporate structure effective close 28 January. This will count as a CGT event for shareholders who will have been deemed to have sold their shares and bought the new ones. Microsoft (Nasdaq code: MSFT) is buying Activision-Blizzard for $69 billion, but who's the largest gaming company in the world? Tencent (Hong Kong code: 700). German 10-year back above 0%. [caption id="attachment_31941" align="aligncenter" width="888"] German 10-year yield[/caption] Oil at 7-year highs. There's an ETN for that. * I hold ungeared positions.
2022-01-20
15 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Predictions 2022 (#476)
Now for the tenth year in a row, we kick off the new year with a predictions show. Marc Ashton,Ā Keith McLachlanĀ andĀ Simon Brown put their heads on the block with three wild and woolly predictions for the markets for 2022 followed by a call on the Top40 and ZAR for the year ahead. Importantly we start each show with a review of the previous yearās predictions and youāll find the 2021 predictions show here.
2022-01-13
37 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
When Merkel saved Greece (#475)
Holiday show Back in 2010 the world watched as Greece plunged further and further into a debt crisis with many expecting the EU to not survive. But Angela Merkel saved Greece and the day. [caption id="attachment_31826" align="aligncenter" width="888"] Greek 10Y bond rates[/caption] Greek debt to GDP (%) source: tradingeconomics.com
2021-12-30
13 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Evergrande, nobody cared (#474)
On the 20th September 2021 Chinese property developer missed interest payments on some US$300billion of debt and this spooked markets into a selloff. But three months later nobody cares. What's the background sorry and why does nobody care?
2021-12-23
14 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Where's Ever Given? (#473)
After clogging up the Suez Canal for six days back in March 2021 and halting much of the worlds shipping trade, what happened to Ever Given?
2021-12-16
11 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Market in review 13 December 2021
Offshore / Strong year of returns globally, CAC40 (France) top index / US inflation, not transitory / US unemployment looking decent / China crackdown / Commodities mostly a soft year, the exception is oil / Supply chain chaos Local / Good year for local markets / Delisitng galore / GDP / Rand
2021-12-13
1h 02
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
A great year for investors (#472)
Simon has a look back at the winners and losers from the JSE for 2021, year-to-date returns. There certainly are some losers, but mostly it is about winners as the Top40 did 21.5% so far and the top major global index was the Cac40 which returned 29.9%. Find the top ETFs here.
2021-12-09
27 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Market in review 06 December 2021
Offshore / US Labor Nov Nonfarm Payrolls +210K; Consensus +573K, unemployment improved to 4.2%. Fed's target for 'maximum employment' is for unemployment rate of 4.5%. / Didi leaving NYSE / GoogleĀ willĀ no longer requireĀ workers to return to the office on Jan.Ā 10, delaying the return indefinitely. / Dorsey leaves Twitter / OPEC+ agrees to January production hikes Local / Implats comes for RBPlats / Capital Appreciation results / Tharisa results / Bidcorp updates / Murray & Roberts update
2021-12-06
53 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Buying leisure stocks (#471)
Simon Shares Bidcorp (JSE code: BID). Strong update, they're coming out of this pandemic much stronger. Aspen (JSE code: APN) announces manufacturing deal with Johnson & Johnson (NYSE code: JNJ). Implats (JSE code: IMP) wants RBPlats (JSE code: RBP), sorry Northam Platinum (JSE code NPH). Powell, Fed chair, says inflation is not transitory. Oil under severe pressure, OPEC+ meeting was pushed back to Wednesday. New variant, I bought City Lodge* (JSE code: CLH) and Sun International* (JSE code: SUI) on Friday. I did buy somme leisure on Friday, CLH at 400c and SUI at 2100c .. will see shortly...
2021-12-02
18 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Market review 29 November 2021
Offshore / Powell second term as Fed chair / Fed's Bostic says he remains open to faster taper and one or two rate hikes in 2022 / Online Black Friday sales in the US fell according to data from Adobe Analytics ($8.9bn vs. $9bn) / Opec+ meeting this week, production likely to remain unchanged / Turkish lira losses 20% Local / New variant crashes markets and leisure stocks (everything) / Good Invicta results, but no dividend / Good PPC results / Brait apital raise via convertiable bond / Hospital...
2021-11-29
39 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Just two stocks (#467)
Simon Shares Coronation* (JSE code: CML) grows assets, fees and dividends. PPC (JSE code: PPC) results look good. Purple Group* (JSE code: PPE) price action looking weak. PGMs fading again. Hospital group stocks; Life Healthcare JSE code: LHC) and Netcare (JSE code: NTC) both had fair results as they get better at managing the pandemic. Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) launched their banking account, under pinned by Grindrod Bank (JSE code: GND) who also stand to benefit from the MTBPS last week whereby the minister said they'd allow independent traffic on the Transnet rail network by end of 2022. Turkish...
2021-11-25
22 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Don't short the break higher (#469)
Simon Shares Iron ore below US$100. Kumba (JSE code: KIO) halved since July highs. And still falling. But Q3 sales were at US$180 / tonne and even at current lows likely they get US$150 / tonne for the second half. Mid-year cost per tonne was US$26 and sale price US$165 / tonne. So the share is pricing in horror stories which likely aren't true fr the full year ending December. BUT next year will be different and you don't try to catch falling knives, wait for a confirmed reversal. Woolies* (JSE code: WHL) trading update, really weak. Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP...
2021-11-18
15 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Market in review 15 November 2021
Offshore / US inflation, 6.2%. Core inflation highest since 1991. / Johnson & Johnson announced plansĀ to split its company into two, separating its consumer health division from its pharmaceutical and healthcare businesses. / Elon Musk selling Tesla shares, some planned n September. Rest thanks to the Twitter poll. / Singles day in China, muted (+8.5%) but still huge, Alibaba $84.5billion / Tencent results. Slowing in all areas. Common prosperity is visible in the results. Local / MTBPS, not much happening - as expected. / Vodacom buying Vodafone Egypt, nice deal and adds a...
2021-11-15
51 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Stellar Purple Results (#468)
Simon Shares Iron ore below US$100. Kumba (JSE code: KIO) halved since July highs. Tencent (Hong Kong code: 700) results. Northam (JSE code: NPH) buys stake in RBPlats (JSE code: RBP). Telkom (JSE code: TKG) results. Purple Group* (JSE code: PPE) results. Ā [caption id="attachment_31661" align="aligncenter" width="888"] Purple Group daily chart[/caption] * I hold ungeared positions.
2021-11-11
19 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Market in review 08 November 2021
Offshore / US tapering begins / Strong US jobs data / US passes $1trillion infrastructure bill / Bank of England leaves rates unchanged / Strong Pfizer results / Elon Musk asks Twitter if he should sell 10% of his Tesla shares, and pay tax Local / Mini budget this week / Renergen reserves / Dis-Chem results / MTN update / Purple Group update / Petrol increase
2021-11-08
44 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Renergen helium reserves soar (#467)
Simon Shares Federal Reserve FOMC press conference Wednesday evening after a two-day meeting. Avis (NYSE code: CAR) up 50x from March 2020 lows after results. Pfizer (NYSE code: PFE) results. Ascendis (JSE code: ASC) shareholder activists now control 30% of the votes. Renergen* (JSE code: REN) announce a six-fold increase in helium reserves. Still need to raise UAS$800m or R12.3billion to get phase 2 up and running. [caption id="attachment_31627" align="aligncenter" width="888"] Renergen weekly chart[/caption] US$8.5billion from France, Germany, the UK and the US governments, as well as the EU, to support a just transition...
2021-11-04
18 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Miners go shopping (#466)
Simon Shares Tesla (NYSE code: TSLA) becomes the worlds 7th trillion-dollar company. Excellent Santova (JSE code: SNV) results. My bad pandemic crash sale. Decent Famous Brands* (JSE code: SSW) results. Implats (JsE code: IMP) wants to buy Royal Bafokeng Platinum (JSE code: RBP). Sibanye-Stillwater* (JSE code: SSW) buys two Brazilian mines for US$1billion and 19.99% investment in New Century Resources for US$46million. * I hold ungeared positions. Upcoming events; 04 November ~ JSE Power Hour: Bold predictions from SA's top broker 11 November ~ Investment Valuation with Keith McLachlan From the last week Satrix launches All...
2021-10-28
19 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Market in review 25 October 2021
Offshore / Evergrande has its suspension lifted and makes an interest payment / Oil remaining stubbornly high / Inflation fears, time for gold? / Paypal maybe buying Pinterest for US$45billion / Netflix results, still growing albeit north America very slowly / Facebook getting a new name as the future is the metaverse Local / Local CPI 5% for September / Pick n Pay results / Excellent results from Combined Motor Holdings / Clicks results / New Satrix All Share ETF listing in November / Renergen...
2021-10-25
47 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Property development stocks (#465)
Simon Shares South Africa inflation rose to 5% in September. Food inflation is 7%, electricity 14%, and fuel almost 20%, with a large petrol price increase expected in November. These increases are partially offset by clothing inflation at 1.6%, appliances -0.4%, and housing rentals around 1% ā kevin lings (@lingskevin) October 20, 2021 Ā Wesizwe Platinum (JSE code: WEZ) went crazy after releasing a competent person report. Calgro M3 (JSE code: CGR). Balwin Properties (JSE code: BWN). US lists its first Bitcoin ETF, ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (NYSE code: BITO). It doesn't hold actual Bitcoin, rather it uses futures to track gains. los...
2021-10-21
18 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Market in review 18 October 2021
Offshore / September, the CPI increased 5.4% after advancing 5.3% on a year-on-year basis in August. / China Q3 GDP at 4.9% / Biden announcedĀ that the Port of Los Angeles would start operating around the clock, following the Port of Long Beach's lead, to ease congestion / $2.7 Trillion in Crisis Savings Stay Hoarded by Wary Consumers / Microsoft shuts down LinkedIN in China / MTNs IHS Towers lists in NY, MTN stake worth R22bn Local / Government cracking down on imported cement, but not with tariffs. / IMF bumps local G...
2021-10-18
43 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Aveng share consolidation (#464)
Simon Shares Murray & Roberts* (JSE code: MUR) expands in the US. The government says they'll only use locally produced cement in projects. PPC (JSE code: PPC) and Sephaku (JSE code: SEP both fly higher. But is the market right about this? We're off the UK red list, good for local hotels? Aveng (JSE code: AEG) have announced plans for a 1:500 share consolidation in December. This usually sees prices weakness after the consolidation. * I hold ungeared positions. Upcoming events; 14 October ~ Investment Fundamentals with Keith McLachlan 21 October ~ JSE Power Hour: Small cap investing with Anthony Clark 27...
2021-10-14
15 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Market in review 11 October 2021
Offshore / US jobs disappoints, but unemployment 4.8%. / 15% global tax rate approved. / Oil continues to run higher / Reports that Malaysia is getting back on track with chip packaging sees PGMs run hard as it could be good news for vehicle production / Last Tuesday was tenth commemoration of the death of Steve Jobs. A legend and the iPhone one of the best products ever? / All facebook properties down on Monday for 6 hours. Local / EOH update shows itāll make an operating profit / Invicta buys Da...
2021-10-11
56 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
EOH back in profit (#463)
Simon Shares Facebook (Nasdaq code: FB), Instagram and WhatsApp all down on Monday. Evergrande is suspended. Last week it was a fat finger Purple Group* (JSE code: PPE) taking the stock down to 125c. This week it hits 225c. Murray and Robert* (JSE code; MUR) starting to move higher. Brent oil is now around $82. PGMs remains under pressure. EOH (JSE code: EOH) makes an operational profit, but the debt pile remains. * I hold ungeared positions. Upcoming events; 14 October ~ Investment Fundamentals with Keith McLachlan 21 October ~ JSE Power Hour: Small cap investing with Anthony Clark Ā
2021-10-07
16 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Market in review 04 October 2021
Offshore / China & Europe power shortages / Brent oil trading around $80 / Merck Covid-19 pill, expected to produce 1.7 million courses for the U.S. government for $1.2B / Tesla delivered record 241,300 vehicles in the third quarter / Work-from-home forever: PwC offers US employees full-time remote work Local / Level 1 & SA expected to be removed UK red list, will tourists return? / Capitec results / Bidcorp results / PPC debt restructuring / Purple Group tie up with Discovery Bank
2021-10-04
58 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Energy crisis brewing in Europe and China (#462)
Simon Shares FOMC and MPC both keep rates unchanged, No surprise. Evergrande is not a threat to the global financial system. Fat finger on Purple Group* (JSE code: PPE). Ā Ā * I hold ungeared positions. Upcoming events; 30 September ~ Power Hour - JSE traded ETNs on Tesla, Apple, clean energy and more 14 October ~ Investment Fundamentals with Keith McLachlan
2021-09-30
21 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Market in review 27 September 2021
Offshore / FOMC leaves rates unchanged and no tapering just yet. / Evergrande a worry but not a global threat / China bans crypto, again. / Britain has a shortage of lorry drivers, and so a petrol shortage. / Nike cut its 2022 revenue outlook because of the temporary bottlenecks plaguing supply chains. Local / MPC no change / Telkom to spin out towers (Swiftnet) worth about R13billion. Openserve will happen afterwards. / PGM prices remain under pressure as vehicle production the world over in under pressure due...
2021-09-27
59 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
PGMs getting crushed (#461)
Simon Shares Clicks (JSE code: CLS) revised trading update, previous EPS growth was 8%-13%. Now revised to 0%-3%. Afrocentric (JSE code: ACT). Great little stock. Not a bad update from Famous Brands* (JSE code: FBR) US inflation for August was 5.3%. US poverty levels went down in 2020, during the pandemic. AB Inbev (JSE code: ANH) just keeps on falling, why? PGMs getting crushed. Platinum down at US$934, palladium around US$2,000 and rhodium US$13,300. What's happening? When does it reverse? * I hold ungeared positions. Ā
2021-09-16
20 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Market in review 13 September 2021
Offshore / PayPal announced plans to buy Japanese "Buy Now, Pay Later"Ā BNPL company Paidy Inc. forĀ $2.7B / US judge rule against Apple and in Epic Games favour in antitrust lawsuit; judge says Apple's conduct in enforcing anti-steering restrictions is anticompetitive / China Evergrande Group default risk ($300bn) / U.S. Senate Democrats float stock buyback tax as part of $3.5 trillion bill / The Worldās Shippers Are Earning The Most Money Since 2008 Local / Local Q2 GDP, weāre 1.4% below pre-pandemic levels / SARB governor Lesetja Kganyago suggests we wor...
2021-09-13
41 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Marvellous Shoprite (#460)
Simon Shares Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) results. Christo Wiese gets R342m in dividends. 21million consumers using their Xtra Savings and 1.5million downloads of the Sixty60 app. The market did not much like the Murray & Roberts* (JSE code: MUR) results. Old Mutual updates 2021 GDP forecast to 5.5%. This is after Stats SA released GDP for Q2 QonQ at 1.2% (YonY 19.3%) and better than expected. The economy remains 1.4% below pre-covid levels. FSCA fines Viceroy R50million. They won't pay. SARB governor Kganyago Lesetja suggests we work towards a 3% inflation target, with a 2-4% tolerance range. New infrastructure ETF from Satrix. ...
2021-09-09
17 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Market review 06 September 2021
Offshore / US jobs data slows. Likely means tapering not just yet even as ECB starts talking tapering. / New China restriction, kids gaming limited to one hour a day on Friday, weekend days and public holidays / Pfizer has recognized over $10 billion in profits from the COVID-19 vaccine alone, making it the best drug introduction in history. / After hurricane Ida oil recovery begins with ports and refineries restarting but most production in the Gulf of Mexico is still shut. / Chip shortage holds back German car sales in August Local
2021-09-06
59 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Results are really good* (#459)
Simon Shares Jackson Hole Bonang Mohale and his Serialong trust converts a Purple Group* (JSE code: PPE) loan into 11.46% shares in the group ADvTECH* (JSE code: ADH) Stadio (JSE code: SDO) Cashbuild (JSE code: CSB) Sun International (JSE code: SUI) MAS Real Estate (JSE code: MSP) Motus (JSE code: MTH) Woolies* (JSE code: WHL) Is this Woolworthsā attempt at Athleisure ? Yikes! š¬ Crop Top : R249.99 Leggings : R299.99 I am flattered they think I,their customer, is a 20 year old Instagram Fitness star š¤£š¤£ pic.twitter.com/B4xsTJ36ho ā Moms š investing (@momm...
2021-09-02
20 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Market in review 30 August 2021
Offshore / Jackson Hole. Powell says nothing new. / TSMC, the world's largest maker of semiconductor chips, says it'sĀ raising its pricesĀ by about 20% / Hurricane Ida heading for the Gulf of Mexico, shutting down oil production. / China reportedly weighs ban on U.S. IPOs from domestic tech companies with sensitive data Local / Bonang Mohale and his Serialong trust converts a Purple Group loan into 11.46% shares in the group / Unemployment 34.4% / South African GDP rebased. The economy is 11% larger than previously measured. It is still the se...
2021-08-30
37 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
it's a crisis (#458)
Simon Shares Jackson Hole South African GDP rebased. The economy is 11% larger than previously measured. It is still the second-largest economy in Africa, after Nigeria. South Africa unemployment 34.4%. National treasury says KZN July violence will take 0.7%-0.9% off 2021 GDP. New oil & copper ETNs Upcoming events; 02 September ~ JSE Power Hour: Picking the next winning stock 14 October ~ Investment Fundamentals with Keith McLachlan
2021-08-26
18 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Market review 23 August 2021
Offshore / New Zealand going into lockdown, the world is getting vaccinated but the pandemic is far from over. / Pfizer expected to get full FDA approval for its covid vaccine this week. A whole new business (covid jabs & mRNA possibilities). / Tesla wants to build an AI robot / Jackson Hole this week / China securities regulator signals willingness to work with the US on audits Local / South Africa inflation lower at 4.6% in July 2021. / Sasol results / Shoprite / Massmart deal / ARB Holdings results
2021-08-23
58 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
The JSE is down, literally (#457)
Simon Shares JSE is broken. 100 MW gazetted. Renergen* (JSE code: REN) update. South Africa inflation lower at 4.6% in July 2021. Tencent (Hong Kong code: 700) results. Resource stocks ex-div. But still lots of pain. Super BHP Group* (JSE code: BHP) results. New Clean energy and water ETNs listed. * I hold ungeared positions. Upcoming events; 19 August ~ JSE Power Hour: BEE shares and the JSE 02 September ~ JSE Power Hour: Picking the next winning stock 14 October ~ Investment Fundamentals with Keith McLachlan Ā
2021-08-19
17 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Market review 16 August 2021
Offshore / US inflation comes in as expected / Britain's GDP grew by 4.8% in the second quarter of this year, leaving the economy just 2.2% below its pre-pandemic level / Google employees who work from home could lose money / US infrastructure bill moving forward / India to unveil US$1.35trillion infrastructure bill Local / 100mw power generation laws gazetted / Naspers / Prosus swap is unconditional / Strong Merafe results / MTN results and Sanlam tie up / Nedbank results / Exxaro and Thungela results
2021-08-16
1h 00
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Market review 02 August 2021
Offshore / US GDP 6.5% , below expectations but the economy now larger than pre-pandemic / US moving forward with an infrastructure bill / The U.S. debt ceiling officially became operative again on Sunday after a two-year suspension / Amazon results see stock down 7% / Alphabet results & $50bn buyback / Microsoft results, LinkedIn does +$10bn Local / Tencent woes hit JSE (but all-time closing high on Thursday) / Results; Anglo Platinum, Kumba Iron Ore and Anglo American / Liberty2Degrees results / ArcelorMittal South Africa results ...
2021-08-02
58 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Super cycle or just super dividends? (#456)
Simon Shares Wild week for Naspers (JSE code: NPN), Prosus (JSE code: PRX) as Tencent (Hong Kong code: 700) got slapped down by the Chinese government. We're back at level 3, adjusted. Alcohol sales are allowed and Distell (JSE code: DGH) put out another great trading update. No doubt better if no alcohol bans, but the argument that your industry is under threat wears thin after such an update. President Ramaphosa also announced the return of the pandemic grant to the unemployed at R350 a month until March 2022. This pays to some 9.5million South African and means just over R3...
2021-07-29
17 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Market Review 26 July 2021
Offshore / New closing highs for S&P500 & Nasdaq. But Russel2000 is lagging. / Apple delays back to the office to October / Twitter and Snap - good results / China regulator bars Tencent from exclusive rights in online music / Big results due this week; Apple & Amazon. So far reported results have been very strong. Local / Rioting impact, retail about 8% of store space impacted. REITs bigger concern. / Local inflation drops / Anglo Americana and BHP production updates / City lodge sells East African assets
2021-07-26
58 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Risk is good (#455)
Simon Shares We now have updates from listed retailers as to the damage caused by last weeks rioting. Chantal Marx ran the data and says we saw almost 1,700 stores looted or closed due to the rioting and this is about 8% of the retailers' local footprint and some 5% of global footprint. This is a significant number, but considering many are open for trade again, with many opening last weekend already. The impact on earnings is likely to be very modest, if at all. PwC expects last weeks riots to take about 0.4% off local GDP for 2021. They already had a...
2021-07-22
18 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Market Review 19 July 21
Offshore / US inflation, again above expectations / Delta airline results show travel returning / US bank earnings as previsions put back into the income statement / Netflix looking into gaming / QoQ China's GDP increasedĀ 1.3% in Q2, 7.9% YoY Local / Rioting impacts as listed companies report details / South African Special Risks Insurance Association (Sasria) will cover claims / Standard Bank taking out Liberty Holdings / Very strong Richemont update / Tongaat results / Steinhoff increases settlement offer
2021-07-19
47 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Riot insurance (Sasria) (#454)
Simon Shares I'm recording Wednesday afternoon and the violence of the past week seems to be abating, certainly in Gauteng. It has been a horror week for our country and most importantly; look after yourself if you can somebody else as well and above all else, be kind. US CPI YoY 5.4%. Core YoY 4.5%. Both ahead of expectations. A very strong production update from Pan African (JSE code: PAN) and their 15ha blueberry farm. OPEC+ seems to have reached a compromise between Saudi Arabia and UAE that should see an OPEC+ deal possible. US earnings season has kicked off...
2021-07-15
20 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Market Review 12 July 2021
Offshore / US ten year back at 1.36% after peaking at +1.72% in March / Jeff Bezos has stepped down as Amazon CEO / OPEC+ couldnāt reach an agreement / Fed minutes tell us nothing new, except inflation is higher/faster than they expected / US extends the economic blacklist of Chinese companies / China wants pre-IPO review of all new listings that have large user data Local / Imperial delisting offer at 6600c / Sibanye Stillwater bearish on palladium, bullish on platinum & rhodium / MultiChoice hit with R63bi...
2021-07-12
59 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Favourite podcasts for traders and investors (#453)
Markets are as quiet as the street of Jozi, so this week a list of my favourite podcasts, the focus is offshore. I'll return and look at local in a few weeks. Upcoming events; 13 July ~ How to use ThinkMarkets Tools 22 July ~ JSE Power Hour: Power of savings Favourite podcasts; Planet Money Motley Fool Money Disciplined Investor Odd Lots Freakonomics Radio Michael Covelās Trend Following Radio
2021-07-08
14 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Market review 05 July 2021
Offshore / US TheĀ unemploymentĀ rate edged up to 5.9% in June / US home prices rose by 14.6% in April, the largest gain in 30 year / S&P 500 closes green 7 days in a row, record is 8 days (US markets closed Monday) / RobinHood proposed listing ~ $40bn valuation / Didi Chuxing lists on NYSE, market cap $69bn & Chinese regulator blocks new accounts Local / Modest Q2 for JSE, TOP0 -1.2% (+11% YTD), Fini15 +6.8% in Q2 / SARB turned 100 last Wednesday / May saw another +R50billion trade surplus tax receipts / In...
2021-07-05
56 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Another +R50bn trade surplus (#452)
Simon Shares Level 4 lockdown. Remember the podcast of last week when I delved into the various leisure socks. Argent (JSE code: ART) results. Long a stock not worth covering or owning, but they've changed things up the last few years. Invicta (JSE code: IVT) another successful turnaround and really good results. JSE (JSE code: JSE) trading update, no surprise earnings under pressure. Nike (NYSE code: NKE) results absolutely crushed it last week. Revenue +96%. Anchor Capital published a note showing that the US had increased the number of US$ in circulation (M3) has gone up 33% over the course of...
2021-07-01
17 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Market Review 28 June 2021
Offshore / Gold a flat week after the previous weeks sell-off / S&P500 and Nasdaq back at all-time highs after the previous week's aggressive sell-off / Global shipping remains under severe pressure as Chinese port shut after a covid-19 outbreak / US gets an infrastructure bill, but maybe not. Itās messy Local / Omnia results paid special dividend and SARS dispute / Growthpoint trading update / Old Mutual to spin off third of their Nedbank holding / May CPI 5.2% with core inflation at 3.1% / +50s can re...
2021-06-28
55 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Deep dive hospitality stocks (#451)
Simon Shares The announcement by the president that business will be able to build up to 100 megawatts of power without constraints is huge. Aside from the fact that the current limit is 1 megawatt, it will have three direct impacts; Estimates are that at least 4,000 megawatts can be built in 18-24 months. That is level 4 load shedding. So bye-bye load shedding. Tens of billions in spend aiding the construction and allied industries. Savings when using your own power. Goldfields (JSE Code: GFI) is building a 40 megawatt supply for South Deep that they estimate will save them R120million a year. Annual...
2021-06-24
18 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
Goals, processes and habits (#376)
Simon Shares October was a decent month for the Top40, adding almost 3% and now 9.5% year-to-date excluding dividends. Moodys makes us negative but not junk and the ZAR soars. Finance minister, Tito Mboweni, says government 'not considering' the idea of prescribed assets. https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/national/2019-11-05-treasury-not-considering-prescribed-assets-mboweni-says/ The Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) update what was way more interesting for the fact that Christo Wiese got voted off the board, until he used his zero economic but voting shares that he tried to sell to Shoprite for some R3billion. The actual update shows SA doing well...
2019-11-07
21 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
What's the NAV? (348)
Simon Shares The Power Hour from last week by Nerina Visser on ETF fees is awesome and online. What's the net asset value? Net asset value (NAV) is from the balance sheet and is asset less liabilities. The break up value of the company. A share will typically trade above this value as we're buying future profits, not break up value. Tangible NAV (TNAV) is better as this excludes things such as goodwill, so is a real number of actual assets. Goodwill is when you buy a business and pay more than the NAV for the...
2019-04-18
17 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
#336: End of year portfolio review
This JSE Direct is proudly brought to you by IG, the specialists in CFD trading and a registered financial services provider. Simon Shares Somebody capitulated on Metrofile* (JSE code: MFL) this morning. The stocks hit 160c, then 239c and is now 1c up at 220c and I picked up a few on a DY of over 10%. Over R4million has traded so far, so decent volume for this stock. SENS just out is that Sabvest (JSE codes: SBV & SVN) picked up just under half of the volume at 200c - 235c. They already own just over 10...
2018-12-13
19 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
#95: The financial literacy test
If you secretly hate us but havenāt been able to find a different source of financial information, I have some great news! I found a Freakonomics Radio episode that summed up exactly the principles we champion on this show. In this episode, Simon and I take the financial literacy survey. Itās only three questions, but understanding their answers will enable you to make great financial decisions. If this sounds vaguely familiar, you might be thinking of this podcast we did last year. Here are the questions: Suppose you have R100 in a savi...
2018-04-09
1h 05
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
#271: Do fees still matter?
Simon Shares Finally, 5 weeks after moving my FTTH has been installed so I am going to Periscope each recording as it happens which is typically Wednesday afternoon. https://www.pscp.tv/SimonPB/ Retail trading updates coming in and as expected they are mostly bleak, but we are seeing the impact of the rains mostly returning. Netflix is a monster, over 100million customers world wide. Long4Life is buying; Holdsport and Sorbet. Steinhoff (JSE code: SNH) raises R12bn (Euro800million) in Europe with a 7.5 year bond at 1.875%. Upcoming events JSE Power Hour: Recession proof stocks Moneyweb Expo...
2017-07-20
20 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
#253: Is Buffett still value?
Simon Shares Metrofile* (JSE code: MFL) results were modest but the dividend was up 18% at 13c and core operations also increased 18%. You can now buy shares in the South African Reserve Bank! But should you? Sea Harvest (JSE code: SHG) will be listing later this month. I will apply for allocation. Tongaat* (JSE code: TON) is coming under some selling pressure down to around R123.50. Upcoming events JSE Power Hour: Finding that perfect share JSE Power Hour: Anthony Clark 2017 small cap picks * I hold ungeared positions. Is Buffett a value investor? @JustOneLap @SimonPB...
2017-03-09
22 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
#229: Role of a Stock Broker in your investment journey
Role of a Stock Broker in your investment journey Simon Shares More finance minister concerns and more rand weakness. The bigger picture is you have to have a bigger picture investment view otherwise events like this will hurt. In the last of this three part series if you had R300, which ETF would you buy? We ask Warren Ingram and Craig Gradidge for their view. Trading Master Class, an index trading system is online and follow up in on Monday at 1pm. Tonight in Durban we have a JSE Power Hour - 9.97562 Possible Pitfalls in Investment...
2016-08-25
50 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
JSE Direct 209: Hating on unit trusts
Hating on unit trusts Simon Shares SPIVA results for South Africa are out and they track how many active managers fail to beat the index. Truth is that even over 1 year most do NOT beat the index. In short, buy passive or lose money? The PDF of the report is here. Standard & Poors has downgraded SA's expected GDP for 2016 from 1.6% to 0.8% further cementing the likelihood of a downgrade to junk from the rating agency. African Bank has relaunched, but this is not the one you have shares in. The suspended ABIL sold off good assets and...
2016-04-07
21 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
JSEDirect 197 ā The Predictions Show 2016
Weāre back! It's 2016, wowzer. This weekās show is our annual predictions show with Marc Ashton, GM at Moneyweb, Keith McLachlan, Small/Midcap fund manager at Alpha Wealth and Simon Brown from JustOneLap. We did our first predictions show in January 2014 and and the second a year later and this is now our third show. Find 2014 here and 2015 here. We promised to revisit our predictions a year later and here we are marking our 2015 predictions and also making our 2016 predictions. Tweet or Facebook us your predictions. ==== Subscriber to our...
2016-01-14
31 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
JSEDirect 172: Stocks to buy and sell and the best TFSA
Drikus Combrinck Ā Portfolio Manager CapiCraft Investments Masterdrill Ā (JSE:MDI) Grindrod (JSE:GND) Markel Corporation (NYSE:MKL) We Get Mail Helen Which charting software is best for investing? JCĀ Just watched your JSE power hour on TFSA accounts on JustOneLap. What service provider are you using as I am using XXX securities and I cannot buy DBX just do it through their funds⦠I want a little more flexibility. Subscriber to our feedĀ hereĀ orĀ sign up for email alertsĀ as a new show goes live or subscribe inĀ iTunes. JSE ā The JSE is a registered t...
2015-06-18
21 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown
JSEDirect 152 ā The Predictions Show
Weāre back! After a six month sabbatical JSEDirect is back and running from JustOneLap coming to you every Thursday. Weāre making some changes that weāll detail in the weeks ahead. This weekās show is our annual predictions show with Marc Ashton, GM at Moneyweb, Keith Mclachlan, Small/Midcap fund manager at Alpha Wealth and Simon Brown from JustOneLap. We did our first predictions show in January 2014 and promised to revisit our predictions a year later (find that show here) and here we are marking our 2014 predictions and also making our 2015 predictions. Su...
2015-01-21
34 min