Shows
JSEDirect with Simon BrownJSE in the Cross Hairs (and Proposing Changes) | Don't Fight the TrendWorldwide Markets – Episode 656 (12 November) Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets and Shyft – the global money app that puts travel, shopping, payments and investments in the palm of your hand 🌍💸 1) JSE Under Pressure 🏛️⚖️ Two issues in the spotlight: a) Competition Commission Complaint A2X alleges JSE is being anti-competitive around BDA & settlement. This could have a long regulatory process. No quick outcomes expected. b) Matengu Allegations Matengu alleges share price manipulation and claims to have emails implicating JSE directors. JSE has fired back and asked: Produce the emails. There is also a clear seller over...
2025-11-1121 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownGold took us up … and Gold will take us down🌍 World Wide Markets Ep. 654 — 29 October 2025 🎙️ "Gold took us up … and gold will take us down." 🪙 Gold Takes the JSE for a Ride Gold led the JSE to record highs — and now it's leading it back down. Year-to-date returns: Gold +49 %, Harmony +87 %, Pan African +126 %, DRD +150 %, Gold Fields +162 %, AngloGold Ashanti* +167 %! Excluding dividends! Simon notes clear support around $3,600-3,800, with further downside likely. The Top 40 is up ~38 % YTD, but the Resources Index (Resi) is +93 % — remove that, and the market's ~20 %. Translation: half this year's gains came from gold ⛏️. When gold falls, the JSE will feel it. Simon spots a "kangaroo-tail" reversal candle — 10 straight gr...
2025-10-2818 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownNaspers Stock Split | UK Yields at Worst Levels this Century📌 Key Themes This Week 📊 Naspers share split – AGM approves a 5-for-1 split to make shares more affordable for smaller investors. 💬 Jackson Hole update – Jerome Powell's last appearance as Fed Chair, shifting focus from inflation to jobs. Markets pricing in September & December rate cuts with high certainty. 💸 Trump & the Fed – Trump fires Fed Governor Lisa Cook ❌ and pushes to pack the Fed with rate-cut friendly members. 🇺🇸 Intel stake – Trump administration takes a 10% stake in Intel via the Chips Act, raising questions about "state capitalism." 📉 Dollar weakness – Dollar index slides, Rand strengthens to R17.44, risk-on se...
2025-08-2622 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownIs a Lower Inflation target a Bad Idea? Is Afrimat Offering Value?🌍 This week on Worldwide Markets, Simon dives into a packed show covering inflation, earnings, property deals, and opportunities in local stocks. Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets and Shyft — your gateway to global investing. 🌐💸 📉 Inflation Target Cut – A Bad Idea? • SA may shift to a 3% inflation target 📊 • Risks of higher interest rates 😬 • Real rates already sky-high 🚀 💵 Weaker US Dollar & Tech Gains • Trump's weaker dollar policy in motion 🇺🇸📉 • MAG7 & Nasdaq benefit: 49%+ offshore revenue 🖥️🌐 • S&P 500 and Russell 2000 lag 🏢 Sibanye-Stillwater* Diversifies • Buys US recycling business ♻️ • Adds silver, copper, and skills 🪙🔧 • Expands beyond PGMs and gold 🪙...
2025-07-2218 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownResults Shows SA Consumer Improving | Renewable Energy Listing With ±9% DYThis week, Simon Brown unpacks the numbers behind a recovering South African consumer, an attractive new renewable energy listing, and the latest moves in platinum group metals (PGMs). Plus, CrowdStrike's results, Omnia's cash pile (and SARS headache), and what falling bond yields mean for SA. In this episode: 📈 Retail recovery? Results from Mr Price* and TFG* show H2 improvement — are SA consumers finally catching a break? 🌱 Greencoat Renewables (JSE: GRP) lands on the JSE with a juicy ±9% dividend yield. Should you be bidding? 💰 Omnia shines with strong mining & agri numbers, plus another spec...
2025-06-1018 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownThe anatomy of a financial crisis, 1987 to date | What happened, what changed and what we learntSimon has been doing a key note address over the last week and in this weeks podcast he takes a slightly different tack to what he usually presents. This time he is delivery his key note. He looks back over almost forty years of market crises that he's invested through. He shares the lessons he learnt, what caused the crisis and what the response was. This includes; 1987, EM Tigers of 1998, the DotCom bust in 2000, Global Financial Crisis of 2008/9, the 2020 pandemic and finally the 2025 Trump tariff crisis.
2025-06-0422 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownPeloton Free Cash Flow | New Inflation Target for SA? SARB inflation target 🎯 Inflation remains well below target at 2.8%, raising expectations of a rate cut at Thursday's MPC meeting. New long-term target could shift to 3%. ⏳ Rate cut coming? Market's betting on 25bps; Simon wants 50bps. 💡 Lower target = anchored expectations = tamer wage negotiations. Peloton (PTON) 🚴♂️ The pandemic darling may be turning a corner with solid free cash flow returning. 💵 Q3 FY25: $94.6m FCF (vs $10.7m in Q1) 📉 Stock at $7.50 (down from $170). Risky turnaround, but improving numbers. 📊 Subscriptions reviving; de-risked but needs deeper digging. Gold Power Hour coming 19 June 🪙 Event: "Know when to hold it, know when to fold it." 📆 19 June with Standard...
2025-05-2720 min2025-05-2120 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownHas Trump Shown us how Tariffs Resolve?🎯 Tariff Talks: Where Are We Now? Simon Brown recaps the evolution of Trump-era tariffs, with recent developments around: US-China deal: effective 54% tariff on Chinese goods, 10% on US goods UK, Mexico, Canada, Vietnam likely settling around 10% Expectations for other regions like EU, Saudi Arabia, South Africa Conclusion: tariff escalation seems contained, reducing recession risks Key Insight: Markets are stabilising as the worst-case tariff scenario is dialed back. 💊 Trump vs. Big Pharma Trump targets high drug prices in the US, pushing for: 30-day deadline for pharma...
2025-05-1320 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownWe can all be Buffett, Kinda | Sell in May & Go Away?🧓 Warren Buffett Steps Down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway Buffett officially steps aside as CEO at age 94, replaced by Greg Abel. Still remains Chairman Berkshire A shares up ~44,000% since the 80s No dividends ever paid, only share buybacks His legacy: simplicity, repeatable process, and long-term vision Emphasis on reading years of balance sheets and loving cash flow Fun fact: 96% of his net worth came after age 65 🏦 Investing Lessons from Buffett Stick to quality companies at reasonable prices Focus on permanent capital and compounding Keep your process simple and repeatable Don't chase hype — focus on fundamentals South Africa's...
2025-05-0621 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownAlphabet is way Cheap | Nasty US economic data 🎙 Episode Summary: This week, Simon unpacks Alphabet's surprisingly cheap valuation, troubling US economic data, South African CPI figures, Trump's trade mess, and the implications of Aspen's customer fallout. Plus, he previews the Berkshire AGM and upcoming JustOneLap events. 📉 US Economic Data Shock Q1 GDP: Expected +0.2%, came in at –0.3% 😬 Imports surged 40%, skewing GDP down Retail inventories and trade balance signal deeper issues PCI inflation at 1.8% vs. 1.2% expected Recession fears intensify US GDP Q1 2025 🇺🇸 Trump's 100-Day Trade Tangle Trump promised 90 trade deals in 90 days...
2025-04-3021 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownRare Earth Minerals. Not so rare, but worth a look?Gold Pullback in Focus Gold surged to $3,500 before a sharp pullback to $3,321. Simon breaks down what caused the spike — including comments from Trump about Powell and rate cuts. Weekly chart shows potential kangaroo tail reversal — possible zone to watch: $2,800–$3,000. Gold | Weekly | 23 April 2025 Trump, Powell & IMF Forecast Downgrades Trump critiques Powell and Fed policy while possibly setting up a scapegoat. IMF cuts global growth forecasts from 3.2% to 2.8%. South Africa's expected GDP is now at 1% — far below Treasury's 1.9% target. Rare Earths: Not So Rare, Still Strategic China's dominance in rare earths: 69% production, 90% processing. Simon looks at...
2025-04-2316 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownGold $4,500 by yearend, is it even possible?🌍 Global Markets Rundown Goldman Sachs suggests gold could plausibly hit $4,500/oz by year-end. Gold is currently around $3,200/oz, but volatility and uncertainty are driving prices higher. Gold miners are benefiting from the price surge, with big leverage showing up in earnings. Example: Pan African Resources made $900/oz at $2,250; could make $2,900 at $3,250. Big upside still possible if gold just holds or drifts higher. SA gold stocks (YTD performance): Pan African Resources +106% Harmony +76% AngloGold Ashanti* +72% Gold Fields +30% (with mine-related issues) Gold | Weekly chart |15 April 2025 📉 Recession Watch Larry Fink (BlackRock) & Jamie Dimon (JPMorgan): "US may already be in a r...
2025-04-1519 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownTrade Wars | Recession | What about your Portfolio? 🇿🇦 South African Budget & Political Risk Budget framework passed (barely) – VAT increase to 15.5% effective 1 May. GNU under pressure as ANC signals reformulation talks with partners. Rand volatility: Touched nearly R19.90/USD before recovering to ~R18.70. 💥 Global Markets in Turmoil S&P 500 down 18.25%, Nasdaq down 22.5%. Massive selloff: One of the steepest 4-day drops since 1950. But historically, markets rebound over 1, 3, and 5 years post similar dips. S&P500 | Weekly | 08 April 2025 🇺🇸 US Tariffs – Trump's Economic Disruption 104% tariffs on Chinese goods kick in; highest in 100+ years. Aimed at reshaping global trade, raising revenue (~$600B–$1T est). Massive uncertainty over whether Trump rev...
2025-04-0922 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownGlynn Allen | Shyft Global Offering JSE SharesSimon Brown chats with Glynn Allen from Shyft Global on the history of the app and the recent introduction of JSE shares and a look ahead to new features.
2025-04-0413 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownTwo US Stocks Looking Good | Commodities Quietly Having a Good Year S&P 500 Bounce? After a rough start, Monday's trading saw a small recovery. But with Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcements looming, markets could be in for more volatility. Budget Vote Approaches: The ANC lacks votes to pass the postponed budget, with opposition parties like MK and EFF holding out. Political and economic uncertainty remains high. Commodities on a Quiet Rally: Gold (+19.5%), Copper (+26.5%), and Rhodium (+24.5%) lead the way, while oil and aluminium lag. The CRB Index is up 5.4% year-to-date. Atlanta Fed GDP Now Update: Q1 GDP estimate revised to -0.5% from...
2025-04-0117 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownEducation Stock Highlights | Rhodium & Copper on the MoveEducation Stocks: Winners and Losers Stadio: Strong performance with double-digit growth and 50,000+ learners. Benefiting from a shortage of university spaces and the struggles at UNISA. Potential for further growth through distance learning and university status. ADvTech*: Long-term holding with solid but not as aggressive growth. Strong presence in tertiary education and schools. Expansion into East Africa showing promise. Curro: Disappointing results with flat learner numbers and write-downs on buildings. Struggles may be due to internal issues or broader economic pressures on lower-income consumers. Commodity Movers: Copper & Rhodium Copper: Near all-time highs due to demand from EVs...
2025-03-2520 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownRenergen sells Helium, Finally. Gold & Top40 at all-time Highs Market Overview: Top 40 Index: Hit an all-time high of 82,378, currently at 81,800. SA markets remain strong despite a US market selloff. Top40 | Weekly | 18 March 2025 Gold: Broke $3,000 for the first time last week, currently around $3,030. Continues to rise amid geopolitical uncertainties. Gold | Weekly | 19 March 2025 Rand: Trading at 18.07, briefly touching 18.0088 earlier. Dollar weakness driving strength, with a target level of 17.80. Key Market Insights: Gold as a Portfolio Hedge: Maintains a 6-7% weighting in portfolio. Recent purchase at $2,865 via GLD ETF in New York. Potential buy zones: $2,800 and $2,850. Dollar Index Trends: Initially targeted 104, broke through to 101. Could drive t...
2025-03-1920 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownAtlanta Fed has the US already in recession for Q1 The Atlanta Fed's GDP Forecast The Atlanta Fed GDPNow predicts a -2.4% GDP contraction for Q1 2025. Market uncertainty due to tariffs and economic policy concerns. Corporate travel and consumer bookings showing signs of weakness as Delta Airlines downgrades their expectations from mid January. Market Reactions and Sell-Offs Nasdaq and S&P had their worst single-day drops since 2022. Major stocks like Nvidia, ASML, and CrowdStrike seeing significant declines. Bitcoin at $81,000 amid broader market volatility. Europe as a Potential Investment Opportunity Europe's economic stimulus: Germany announces a €500B package. ETFs to consider: EURO STOXX 50 (SYG...
2025-03-1119 min2025-03-0521 min2025-02-2520 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownXi Jinping makes nice with Chinese tech | Anglo raids Anglo Plat cash pileAnglo-American's Cash Raid on Anglo-Platinum Anglo-American's decision to unbundle its stake in Anglo-Platinum raises concerns. Declaring a special dividend of R59 per share wipes out the company's entire R17.6 billion cash reserves. Implications for investors: selling pressure expected as shares land in new brokerage accounts. China's Tech Revival? The appearance of Jack Ma and Xi Jinping together could mark a softening stance toward tech companies. Alibaba partners with Apple, integrating its AI into Apple's ecosystem. Is China reopening the door for its tech giants? Bull Market Momentum Global indices continue to hit all-time highs...
2025-02-1814 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownChina Running and Finally a Sasol Reversal Pattern?Market Updates & Analysis: Sasol Reversal Pattern? – Examining Sasol's technical setup and the significance of a 'kangaroo tail' pattern. Rand Stability Amid Trump's Threats – Despite geopolitical concerns, the rand remains steady. Top 40 at All-Time Highs – Market momentum and investor confidence. South Africa's Budget Speech (Wednesday, 2 PM SAST) Revenue shortfalls and potential tax bracket adjustments Universal Basic Income and National Health Insurance funding discussion Expectations for the fiscal policy outlook Stock & Sector Insights: Telkom: Revenue up 0.9%, in a turnaround phase, but Simon remains skeptical about telcos. Santam: Strong earnings growth (40-60% increase in HEPS), but insurance sector...
2025-02-1218 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownGolden Highs & Trump Trade Shambles Trump Trade Tariffs & Global Market Impact: Initial tariffs of 10% (China) and 25% (Canada, Mexico) announced but later revised. U.S.-Canada relations strained, with Warren Buffett warning of reputational damage. Global negotiation shifts—China, Russia, and Europe eye opportunities. Continued U.S.-China trade tensions, including semiconductor restrictions and rare earth tariffs. Market volatility expected; long-term investment strategies recommended. Investment Strategies Amid Uncertainty: Volatility is high—avoid panic selling. Keep cash reserves for opportunities (buy the dip cautiously). Long-term focus: presidential terms are temporary, investments span decades. Interest Rate Decisions & Market Reactions: Bank of En...
2025-02-0618 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownCristal Challenge Stock Picks for 2025 (#616) The Cristal Challenge runs until October, with participants picking five local stocks (no ETFs or sub-20c stocks) to hold through the year. Simon's picks include a mix of stable "banker" stocks and speculative plays: Richemont*: High-end luxury giant with strong fundamentals and global market appeal despite challenges in China. Trading near R3,500, with long-term potential boosted by luxury market recovery and stable global demand. Shoprite*: Dominant grocery retailer in South Africa, benefiting from market share growth and diversified business lines like 60/60 delivery. A steady performer with consistent earnings growth and market...
2025-01-2817 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownTSMC winning in AI TSMC's Record-Breaking Results Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) hit $26 billion in quarterly revenue. A strong contender in the AI supply chain with growing global operations. Gold: Continuing the Bull Run Gold remains a strong investment pick for Simon, with a potential to hit $3,000/oz. Gold | Weekly | 21 January 2025 Brent Crude Oil Concerns Rising oil prices could hurt both the global and South African economies. Trump Meme Coins & Meme Coin Mania Trump and Melania meme coins: Novelty or nonsense? Simon unpacks the hype.
2025-01-2118 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownPredictions 2025 with; Marc Ashton, Keith McLachlan & Simon BrownFor the twelfth year in a row Marc Ashton, Keith McLachlan & Simon Brown get together and make three predictions each for year ahead. They then also give their expectations for the local Top40 index and the Rand against the US$. But first every year they start by scoring their previous year predictions to keep things real and honest.
2025-01-1436 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownThat's a Wrap we Look Back at an Excellent 2024In the final show of the year Simon looks back at the many local and offshore winners (and a few losers) of 2024. There have been some excellent returns, but will they carry on into 2025?
2024-12-1221 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownBitcoin Fails at $100k & Hello Boxer (#612) Boxer IPO Hits the Market Boxer* (JSE code will be BOX) lists on 28 November, debuting at R54/share after a highly oversubscribed IPO. Strategies discussed for trading or investing in Boxer shares, including buying through Pick n Pay shares. Key takeaway: Patience is key; wait for potential pullbacks. Two-Pot Retirement Savings and Market Impact Early evidence of consumer spending from the two-pot retirement system. Stocks like Mr. Price*, Pepkor, and Keith McLachlan's picks (e.g., Afrimat, Netcare) reviewed as beneficiaries. Satrix 40 ETF Turns 24 Launched in 2000, the Satrix 40 has delivered an annualized return o...
2024-11-2720 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownLocal Inflation at 2.8%, is the SARB Asleep? (#611) October Inflation Local CPI at 2.8%, yet prime is 11.5% ahead of the MPC decision this afternoon. The gap is far to wide, SARB needs to cut aggressively. South Africa | Prime vs. CPI Gold and Bitcoin Gold has bounced, but is this for real? Bitcoin heading for US$100k Rand weakness The US$ remains string and is hurting the Rand. US$ Index Astral results Good results Paid back R1.1billion short-term debt But volatile, a trading stock. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. A...
2024-11-2108 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownCrypto Flies while Gold Crashes (#611) Market Overview Crypto Surge, Gold Decline: Bitcoin rallies as investors shift from gold to crypto. Gold hit a recent high of $2,800 but is now pulling back, possibly towards $2,300-$2,400. Central banks continue to buy gold as a hedge against U.S. dollar dominance and geopolitical risks. [caption id="attachment_43623" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Gold | Weekly | 13 November 2024 Rand Weakness: The ZAR weakened above 18 to the dollar, driven by strong U.S. dollar demand amidst market volatility. South African Rand overshoots due to its high liquidity, making it vulnerable to sharp moves. T...
2024-11-1318 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownTrump wins, whats the trade? Also; AMSL, Nvidia and Crowdstrike all worth a look? (#609)Episode Summary: Simon Brown dives into the week's biggest financial and economic stories, covering Trump's election win, Nvidia's inclusion in the Dow, rate cuts expected from the FOMC and BOE, and the latest updates on Murray & Roberts, palladium, and gold. Recorded after market open, this episode sheds light on key trades, trends, and the shifting global landscape. Trump's Victory – What's the Trade? Trump's presidential win sparks market reactions, with immediate rallies in the S&P, Nasdaq, and Bitcoin. Simon discusses potential policy impacts, such as tariffs, technology restrictions on China, and implications for commodities, oil, and th...
2024-11-0721 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownUsing AI to analyse Famous Brands results and Awesome Local CPI (#608) Local Inflation Update Inflation at 3.8% - lowest since March 2021 (3.5 years ago) Well below SARB's target range midpoint of 4.5% Q3 year-on-year inflation at 4.3% (vs SARB's expected 4.4%) SA CPI YonY September 2024 November MPC Meeting Outlook Rate cut expected, but size uncertain Possibility of 25bps vs 50bps cut Factors affecting decision: Rand weakness Rising oil prices Global economic conditions Important titbit about today's SA headline CPI print. It meant that CPI rose by 4.3% y/y in Q3 2024. In Sept, SARB expected 4.4% for Q3, implying Sept print largely in line with their expectations. Therefore, today's n...
2024-10-2420 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownBooming Local Retail Sales and RIP Tito Mboweni (#607) Strong Retail Sales and the Two-Pot System: Retail sales show a positive trend, rising 3.2% in August, exceeding expectations of 2.1%. The Two-Pot System has already released R20 billion in six weeks, with the money used mainly for paying down debt, saving, and spending. Retail sales recovery, though from a low base, is a strong indicator of improved consumer health due to factors like slightly lower interest rates and inflation. South African retail sales | YonY Tribute to Tito Mboweni: Simon reflects on the passing of Tito Mboweni, former Finance Minister and Reserve Bank Governor. M...
2024-10-1718 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownCapitec, a Core Portfolio Holding? Balwin vs. Calgro M3. (#606)Overview: In this episode of JSE Direct, Simon Brown breaks down the latest market updates, key stock analyses, and insights into the South African investment landscape. Episode highlights include discussions on property developers Calgro M3 and Balwin, Capitec's strong performance, Purple Group's rise, Afrimat's challenging update, and Wilson Bailey's long-term chart breakout. The show also covers upcoming events and Brown's views on Nvidia's stock movement. Property Developers: Calgro M3* vs. Balwin Calgro M3: Delivered a strong trading update, attributed to its flexibility in targeting lower-income segments. Calgro's ability to adapt and scale down offerings positions it...
2024-10-1023 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownREITs Booming and Still More to Come (#605) China's Market Rebound Stimulus Measures: The Chinese government has initiated a stimulus, which includes cutting reserve requirements and lowering interest rates. While spending has not picked up fully, the China 50 ETF (in US dollars) has wiped out losses dating back to July 2022. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index shows a similar trend. Market Sentiment: Short squeezes have played a role in pushing the prices of big Chinese companies like Alibaba and Tencent higher. Despite concerns about China's long-term investability (raised by experts like Viv Govender of Rand Swiss), Simon remains optimistic about continued growth i...
2024-10-0217 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownChina to the Rescue and ZAR Powers Stronger. What's the Target? (#604) Summary: In this episode of JSE Direct, Simon Brown delves into the latest developments in South African markets, focusing on the impact of China's major economic stimulus and the strengthening of the Rand. Key highlights include: Rand Strength: The Rand has seen notable appreciation, reaching levels of R17.12 to the US dollar. Simon discusses the drivers behind this, particularly US dollar weakness and foreign purchases of South African bonds. He explores possible future movements, with a target of R16.80 and potential for further strengthening. USDZAR | Weekly | 26 Sep 24 Global Stimulus: China's massive stimulus measures...
2024-09-2617 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownWhat's an asset light business and why's it a great investment (#603)Episode Overview: In this episode, Simon Brown dives into the current economic landscape with a focus on interest rates, inflation, and the state of the South African Rand (ZAR). He also explores asset-light businesses and why they make great investments, followed by a breakdown of the latest market activity and local company results. Rate Cuts & Inflation Outlook: South African CPI (August): 4.4%. A possible drop to 3.5% in October discussed with Johan Els, Chief Economist at Old Mutual. The need for rate cuts to stimulate the economy, with experts debating between 0.25% and 0.5% cuts. Fed decision and...
2024-09-1822 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownAngloPlat has a problem and it's only going to get worse (#602)Summary In this episode of JSE Direct, Simon Brown discusses various topics including the troubles faced by Anglo Platinum, the performance of leisure stocks, Anglo Gold Ashanti's* acquisition of an Egyptian gold miner, and the impact of two pot withdrawals. He also touches on the future of PGMs, the growth of electric vehicles, and the psychology of markets. Takeaways Anglo Platinum is facing challenges as Anglo American wants to get rid of their stake, causing a sell-off in the market. Anglo Platinum weekly chart The PGMs market is uncertain, with palladium and platinum prices e...
2024-09-1220 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownRates coming down next month, which sectors benefit most? (#601)Episode Summary: In this episode of JSE Direct, Simon Brown delves into the impact of anticipated interest rate cuts and how they may affect various sectors and stocks. He shares his thoughts on potential beneficiaries like consumer stocks, REITs, and companies with high levels of debt. The episode also covers key updates on Nvidia's earnings, Nike's stock valuation, and a new ETF listing by ETFSA. Interest Rate Cuts and Market Impact: Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole Speech: The anticipation of rate cuts as early as September, with an expected reduction of around 75 basis points by...
2024-08-2819 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownETFSA listing an Actively Managed Balanced Foundation ETF, in conversation with Gareth StobieETFSA is listing an Actively Managed ETF, The ETFSA Balanced Foundation Prescient AMETF (JSE code: ETFSAB). Simon spoke with Gareth Stobie from ETFSA about the ETF, the listing process, where it fits in a portfolio and what it will be holding. IPO opens: 26 August 2024 Listing date: 02 September 2024 JSE code: ETFSAB TER: 0.52% ETFSAB
2024-08-2318 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownIt's a bull market, until it isn't & 600 shows WHOOP (#600)In this landmark 600th episode of JSE Direct, Simon Brown reflects on the podcast's journey from its beginnings as a radio show in 2008 to becoming a leading podcast for market insights. The episode covers a range of topics, from South Africa's local CPI and a strengthening Rand to the surprising twists in the gold market and a mixed bag of corporate earnings. Local Inflation Data: South Africa's CPI has come in better than expected at 4.6%, fueling speculation on whether the next rate cut by the MPC might be more aggressive than anticipated. South...
2024-08-2120 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownIs there really value in Sasol? (#599)Sasol's Struggles: Simon revisits Sasol's recent production and trading updates. Despite some positive news, the company's financials remain grim due to significant write-downs and a challenging pricing environment, especially in the chemical complex. With a forward PE ratio hovering around 3, Simon questions the actual value in Sasol and advises caution, emphasising the importance of waiting for a stock to show signs of recovery before investing. Sasol weekly chart | 13 August 2024 ADvTech's* Solid Performance: Simon provides insights into ADvTech's latest trading update. Despite a voluntary update (not mandated by a 20% variance), the company...
2024-08-1420 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownWhat really happened in Japan? Are markets safe again? (#598)Apple's Financial Performance and Buffett's Decision: Apple's recent financial results showed steady revenue growth across various segments including iPhone, MacBooks, and iPads. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway reduced its stake in Apple by half, sparking market speculation. The implications of Apple's valuation and Buffett's strategy in maintaining a significant yet reduced position in Apple were discussed. Market Movements in Japan: The dramatic drop in Japan's Nikkei 225 index, which fell nearly 27% from its recent highs, was analyzed. Possible reasons behind the sell-off included the unwinding of the Japanese carry trade and broader market concerns about global economic stability...
2024-08-0721 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownJSE delisting; can we spot them in advance and profit? (#597)Jerome Powell's Statement: Rates left unchanged in the US. Possible rate cuts on the table for September. US MPC meeting on 19 September. Data needed: improving inflation and higher unemployment. Oil and Gold Market Update: Brent Crude: Under pressure, signaling weak global demand. Lower highs trend since June 2022. Support at $72.50 and resistance around $88. Brent Oil | 01 August 2024 Gold: Trading near all-time highs. Strong central bank buying. Uncertain targets, but bullish sentiment persists. Gold | 01 August 2024 Potential JSE Delistings: Criteria: Dividend yield > 0, market cap < > 100, P/E < > 5%) narrowed it down to 25. Top candidates: African Media Entertainment, Argent, C...
2024-08-0122 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownThe President wants to turn South Africa into a construction site, which stocks benefit? (#596)Presidential Vision for Infrastructure Development: The South African President's recent speech emphasised making the country a hub of construction and infrastructure development. The potential for public-private partnerships and the types of infrastructure that might be developed, including roads, energy transmission, and public buildings. Stocks That Could Benefit: Construction Stocks: A detailed look at various construction-related companies and their potential to benefit from the President's infrastructure plans. PPC: Potential benefits from increased construction activity. Murray & Roberts: Despite historical losses, they have a division in infrastructure and renewable power that might benefit. Stefanutti Stocks: Focus...
2024-07-2420 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownCan South Africa do +3% GDP next year? (#595) SA GDP Growth Prospects IMF's projection: 0.9% GDP for South Africa this year. Potential factors for growth next year: Reduced load shedding could add 1% to GDP. Two-pot system introduction, expected to inject around 40 billion rand into the economy. Potential rate cuts: half a percent by the end of the year, possibly 1% by mid-next year. Inflation targeting at 4.5%. Optimistic outlook with a 60-70% probability of achieving 3% GDP in 2025. South Africa GDP Delistings and Market Movements Bell and Sasfin delisting announcements. Other potential delisting candidates in the small-cap space. Importance of constructing a portfolio that can benefit...
2024-07-1717 minJSEDirect with Simon Brown100 Days of no load shedding, which stocks benefit the most? (#594)Load Shedding Update Milestone: 100 days of no load shedding by Friday. Factors: New capacity online, Kusile unit 5 (800 MW), upcoming additions from Medupi and Koeberg. Impact: Reduced GDP loss (previously 1.8% of GDP due to load shedding). Positive effect on inflation and economic stability. Winners: Retailers: Shoprite*, Pick n Pay, Spar (less expenditure on diesel). Manufacturers: Invicta, Hudaco (benefit from increased customer stability). Real Estate: REITs with shopping centers, reduced generator use. Interest Rates Jerome Powell's Speech: Potential for a single rate cut in November. Impact on Markets: Minimal immediate impact, with expectations already...
2024-07-0321 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownTrading index futures; ALSI & ALMI (#593)Key Takeaways MultiChoice Trading Opportunity: Potential for profit if the Canal+ deal goes through, despite current low stock prices. Futures Trading: Importance of understanding margin, liquidity, and strategy when trading ALSI and ALMI futures. Market Conditions: Current cheap valuation of SA Inc stocks presents opportunities, pending political stability and cabinet announcements. MultiChoice Mis-pricing: Discussion on the 125 Rand mandatory offer from Canal+ for MultiChoice. Current stock trading at 102 Rand due to poor financial results. Analysis of Canal+'s offer document, potential deal completion, and possible trading opportunities. Index Futures - ALSI and ALMI: Detailed overview...
2024-06-2621 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownCan the GNU hold and send markets higher over the next five years? (#592)Face-Ripping Rally on the JSE: Surge attributed to the formation of a coalition government involving ANC, DA, and IFP. Top 40 index rose 3.5%, a significant increase not seen since February 2018. The rally, likened to the start of a marathon, suggests potential long-term growth, despite possible volatility. RAND and Resource Stocks: RAND trading under 18, affecting resources positively. Potential for RAND to strengthen further, possibly reaching 17. Coalition Government and Market Impacts: The coalition's stability is uncertain but critical for long-term market confidence. JP Morgan upgraded South Africa from underweight to overweight, signaling positive outlooks. SA Inc...
2024-06-1915 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownMarket loving clothing retailers and is Spar finally good for you? (#591)US Inflation: Core Inflation: Came in at 3.4%, lower than the expected 3.5% and previous 3.6%. Impact: Positive market reaction, with US Treasuries under pressure, Rand strengthening, and Dollar weakening. FOMC Outlook: Potential rate cuts anticipated towards the end of the year, possibly in November and December. Company Results: SPAR: Performance: Results were as expected, market responded positively. Issues: Challenges in Switzerland, discontinued operations in Poland, and ongoing SAP implementation issues. Foschini Group: Performance: Strong results, market reacted favorably. Highlights: Good performance in their online platform Bash and general improvement across brands. Foschini Group and...
2024-06-1221 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownTwo-pot system is here, it's actually three pots and we've everything you need to know (#590)New Two-Pot Pension System: Details on the implementation and implications for retirement savings. Kicks in 1 September 2024 Can take up to R30k immediately, but this will be taxed. Thereafter 30% of contribution go into a savings pot your can take out, it will be taxed. Only use for an emergency, not holidays. Rainbow's Return to JSE: Analysis of Rainbow's re-listing after 17 years. RCL Foods will be unbundling later in June One Rainbow share for every RCL Foods share But is Rainbow the best chicken stock on the JSE? OPEC+ Impact on Oil Prices: Members agreed...
2024-06-0519 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownAnd now ~ woe is Woolies while Pepkor cleans up in smart phones (#589) Election Results Impact on Markets Slow ballot counting with three ballots, 18.7% counted. CSIR prediction at 5%: ANC 42%, DA 22%, EFF 9%, MK 14%, Patrick Alliance 2%. Market concerns about ANC forming a coalition. Rand fluctuations: From 18.34 on Tuesday to 18.61 currently. [caption id="attachment_42259" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Rand | 1pm 30 May 2024[/caption] Pepkor Results: 9.5% revenue growth. 24.5% growth in fintech, now 12% of the business. Pepkor sells 7 out of 10 smartphones in South Africa. Woolies (Woolworths) Update: Earnings down 20% for the year ending June. Challenges in the clothing segment, further deterioration in footfall and discretionary spend. Food segment performing better, b...
2024-05-3014 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownNvidia juggernaut just keeps on going (#588)Nvidia's Financial Performance Nvidia's Q1 Results: Revenue up 262% year-on-year to $26 billion. Net income up 628% year-on-year to $14.9 billion. Gross margins at 78.9%. Stock Split: 10-for-1 stock split set for 7 June. Market Reaction: Stock traded over $1,000 in the aftermarket. Anglo American and BHP Group BHP's Third Offer: Anglo American rejects BHP's third offer. Deal Concerns: Issues with the price and risk of the deal. Next Steps: Extended deadline for BHP's offer to 29 May. Richemont's* Results Richemont's Position: Holding steady in a tough luxury market. Earnings Growth: Expected around 10% over the next few years. Preferred Stock...
2024-05-2322 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownAnglo has a plan to beat BHP Group, is it any good? (#587)Anglo-American vs. BHP Group Anglo-American rejects BHP Group's offer, unveils its own restructuring plan. Anglo-American to divest De Beers, Anglo-American Platinum, coking coal in Western Australia, and reduce spending on UK fertilizer businesses. Focus on high-quality iron ore and copper assets. Discusses shareholder likelihood of accepting Anglo-American's plan over BHP Group's offer. Discussion on lab-grown diamonds and potential impacts on the market. Market Insights Tencent's positive results impact Naspers and Prosus. NASDAQ and S&P close at all-time highs. Analysis of South African market trends, influenced by gold stocks, Naspers, Prosus, Richemont, and Rand strength.
2024-05-1620 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownLocal small caps; value or value trap? (#586)Introduction: Simon Brown kicks off the episode discussing the current state of the Rand, noting its stability leading up to the elections despite fluctuations. Speculation around ANC's momentum in the polls and potential coalition scenarios. The impact of the dollar's weakness on the Rand's performance. Structured Products: Simon delves into the concept of structured products, which offer capital guarantees and enhanced returns through strategic investment mechanisms like options and bonds. Announcement of an upcoming Power Hour with Standard Bank focusing on structured products. Brief overview of actively managed certificates, also at next weeks Standard...
2024-05-0819 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownBye-bye rate cuts an Anglo American, hello ChinaRate Cuts and Economic Outlook Jerome Powell's statement from the FOMC meeting: "Inflation remains too high and the path forward is uncertain." No rate cut was announced at the FOMC meeting. Speculation on upcoming rate cut possibilities and their impact on the economy. Local economic outlook and potential changes due to the upcoming election. BHP Group's Interest in Anglo-American BHP Group's* proposal to buy parts of Anglo-American, leading to market speculation. Complexities of the deal and potential impact on stock prices. Analysis of BHP Group's interest in Anglo-American's assets, particularly in copper Potential effects of the...
2024-05-0222 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownCapitec, great results. Very expensive stock. Sasol just a horror. (#584) ff Capitec Results: Simon analyzes Capitec's recent financial results, highlighting strong metrics such as return on equity, active clients, and app usage. However, he notes concerns about the bank's expensive valuation compared to its competitors. SARB Monetary Policy Review: Simon discusses the South African Reserve Bank's recent review, indicating a reluctance for rate cuts in the near future due to inflationary pressures and economic uncertainties. Key takeaway from the bi-annual Monetary Policy Review of the @SAReserveBank: Don't bet on a domestic interest rate cut this year. https://t.co...
2024-04-2419 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownPurple Group Thrives, gold flies (#583)UK and Local Inflation: UK inflation surprises at 3.2%, lowest in over two years. US Fed unlikely to cut rates soon, waiting for FOMC meetings. South Africa's CPI data for March at 5.3%, showing a positive trend. Potential for SA rate cuts, depending on US decisions. [caption id="attachment_41866" align="aligncenter" width="849"] SA Inflation 5.3% for March 2024[/caption] China and Commodities: China's GDP surpasses expectations at 5.3%, amid concerns over Fitch downgrade. Export data reflects overstocking, driving prices down. Despite challenges, China's market appears interesting. [caption id="attachment_41867" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Chinese GDP YearONYear per quarter[/caption]
2024-04-1721 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownSARB wants a lower inflation target; how, why & implications? kk Sasol Secunda Reprieve Recap of Sasol's recent developments. Minister's agreement to Sasol's appeal regarding emissions at Secunda. Stock bounce and support level analysis. Target prices discussion and outlook for Sasol. PGM Miners' Performance Analysis of platinum group metal (PGM) miners' performance. Notable increases in stock prices. Consideration of factors affecting the industry, including production cuts and demand for catalytic converters. Exploration of whether the current uptrend indicates the beginning of a bull market. Discussion on supply and demand dynamics in the PGM market. Mention of Sibanye Stillwater's* CEO's forecast. Reflecting on...
2024-04-1018 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownThe looming commodity cliff (#581)Commodity Market Analysis Oil prices are on the rise, currently trading around $89 per barrel, indicating both demand and supply factors at play. Factors affecting oil prices include supply disruptions from Russia and Saudi Arabia's production cuts through OPEC+. Concerns about inflation are reflected in the rising price of gold, which is currently trading at all-time highs above $2300 per ounce. Despite uncertainty, inflation is not expected to decrease soon, especially with increasing energy costs Discussion on the delayed rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve and the global outlook on inflation. Implications of Goldfield's...
2024-04-0316 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownTelcos are horrid investments (#580) Old Mutual Results: Surprisingly strong results from Old Mutual. Despite stagnant GDP growth and population decline, Old Mutual shows strong growth, indicating market share acquisition. Expansion into banking sector questioned due to market saturation. Stock analysis: Trading around 1184, showing potential support at 1150 and resistance at 1240-1280. Considered cheap with PE ratio around 7.7 and dividend yield over 7%. Market consensus predicts an average price target of 14.81. Skepticism remains regarding the bank launch and overall upside potential. MTN Results and Analysis: MTN's earnings affected by Naira devaluation in Nigeria. Earnings per share down 72%, impacted by tax issues a...
2024-03-2818 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownAbenomics worked, Fed not so much (#579)Market Updates: Recent news on Markus Jooste's fine and tragic passing prompts reflection on justice and mental health awareness. Telkom's sale of its towers business for R6.75 billion highlights strategic shifts and potential opportunities in the telecom sector. Ongoing rise in oil prices raises concerns about inflationary pressures and global economic impacts. Market Analysis and Insights: Gold's Surge: Gold prices hit new all-time highs above $2200, reflecting investor concerns and market sentiment following Jerome Powell's recent statements on inflation and monetary policy. Gold mining companies show varied responses, with Pan-African, Goldfields, DRD, and...
2024-03-2221 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownUS CPI hasn't come down in 9 months! (#578) Retire well, we're chatting with retirees about what they've learnt and any tricks they can pass on. US Inflation Trends: US inflation has remained stagnant at 3.2% since June of the previous year, defying expectations. Despite initial projections, inflation has not reached the anticipated 4% mark, staying just above 3%. Discussion on potential implications for the economy and monetary policy, including the possibility of a mid-year rate cut. Local Property Market Concerns: Review of recent challenges facing Pick n Pay and its impact on property stocks and landlords. Analysis of Hyprop's trading update and its i...
2024-03-1417 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownShoprite could buy Pick n Pay, but should you buy Shoprite? (#577) Shoprite* Results and Market Comparison Discusses the recent Shoprite results, emphasising excellent performance against a high base. Highlights Shoprite's significant CapEx spending, customer savings, and market share gains. Compares market cap of Pick n Pay and Shoprite, pointing out the latter's cash reserves. Reflects on the historical revenue comparison between Shoprite and Pick n Pay over the past 20 years. Shoprite's Competitive Position and Stock Analysis Questions whether Shoprite is always destined to be an expensive stock. Analyzes the current PE ratio, forward PE, and 10-year mean, suggesting that the stock may not be as expensive as p...
2024-03-0720 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownNikkei highs, Pick n Pay lows, Bitcoin 1million (#576)Nikkei 225 reached a new all-time high after 35 years Historical context: peaked in December 1989, 82% drawdown by March 2009. Factors contributing to the 80s crash: Yen protection, low rates, speculative bubble. Current challenges: aging population, economic complexities, recent inflation. Investment options: Sygnia JP (SYGJP) - JSE-traded, and Investec's structured product. Warren Buffett's Annual Letter Warren Buffett's annual letter to shareholders released. AGM scheduled for May 4th, details about screening yet to be announced. Historical and informative; available on BerkshireHathaway.com. City Lodge Results City Lodge results: Revenue up 10%, dividend up 20%, HEPS up 10%. Occupancy at 61%, pricing power at 65...
2024-02-2819 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownBudget 2024 panel with AJM Tax (#575)Budget 2024 panel. For the last many years AJM Tax has done a post budget panel which includes Simon Brown and this year was no different. Hosted in Cape Town the panel was; Karyn Maughan, senior legal journalist at News24 Dr Albertus Marias, Director AJM Tax Azhar Varachhia, Managing director Alpha plus Capital Simon Brown, Just one Lap and MonewebNOW Below is the AJM Tax one pager of budget highlights.
2024-02-2245 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownInflation, it ain't over. So what about rates? (#574)Pick n Pay* Chart Analysis Resistance zone around 26, potential to touch 26.70 Higher highs, higher lows, horizontal resistance Target: 30 bucks to fill the gap Comments on Pick n Pay's potential under Sean Summers No need for a rights issue, potential market spook if it happens Simon's position: Started building, considering more Current status: Down 1.7%, trading at 25.30 Pick n Pay close 13Feb24 (daily) Transaction Capital and WeBuyCars Transaction Capital planning to list WeBuyCars Unbundling process expected in March Valuation: 7.5 billion rand Key information: Founders' put option on Transaction Capital is off the table WeBuyCar's strong performance...
2024-02-1417 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownHas Canal+ won already? The answer is yes. (#573)Disney results: Last week's big story was about tech, starting with Disney, a stock recommended here back in September at ±$80. Key financials: Linear networks revenue up 9%, Direct-to-consumer up 12%, Parks up 16% Direct-to-consumer still incurred a loss of $400 million Consumer products, content sales licensing, and ESPN performance discussed Overall, not a knockout result but not terrible; I remain a satisfied shareholder Big move in streaming sports! ⚾️🏀🏈 Disney, Warner Bros., and Fox are joining forces to create the ultimate sports streaming app, merging ESPN, TNT, and Fox Sports (WSJ). ESPN alone was 18% of Disney's latest quar...
2024-02-0718 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownSimon's stocks for this years Cristal challengeBreaking News: Canal+ Offer for MultiChoice: Canal+, French TV business, offers 105 rand per share for MultiChoice minorities. Synergies between the two businesses. Legal considerations regarding foreign media ownership. MultiChoice closed at 75 rand; market likely to respond positively. Market Updates: Hyprop reports positive festive trading for its tenants. Transaction Capital plans to list WeBuyCars in March; potential value unlock. Evergrande declared bankrupt with over 300 billion dollars in debt. Hong Kong economy expanded 3.2% in 2023. China overtakes Japan as the world's top car exporter. Cristal Challenge Stock Picks: Richemont*: Luxury brand with potential in a recovering...
2024-02-0125 min
JSEDirect with Simon BrownChina in trouble, is it over? Should we be worried? (#571) dd Introduction: JSE Direct Episode 571 for January 25, hosted by Simon Brown. Simon introduces the idea of transitioning the podcast to a live format using Riverside, allowing viewers to see charts and interact during recordings. Market Updates: Richemont*: Stock surged 10% on better-than-expected trading update. Identified as an opportunity last year when it pulled back to R2,500. Trading at R2,653 at the time of the recording. AVI: AVI delivered a strong update, but struggling with I&J. AVI focuses on defending margins, willing to lose volumes for profitability...
2024-01-2521 min
JSEDirect with Simon BrownDo elections matter for markets? (#570)In this episode of JSE Direct, Simon Brown discusses various market topics, including the bleak outlook of the Hang Seng Index due to Chinese GDP results. Positive news for Grindrod with the Maputo Port Development Company's impressive performance. The rise in uranium prices driven by increasing demand for nuclear power plants, he found two US listed ETFs benefiing from this trend. [caption id="attachment_40966" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Spot uranium price[/caption] The approval of 11 Bitcoin ETFs by the SEC. When does the JSE get a crypto ETF? ...
2024-01-1710 min
JSEDirect with Simon BrownPredictions 2024; Marc Ashton, Keith McLachlan & Simon Brown (#569)Now for the eleventh year in a row, we kick off the new year with a prediction show. Marc Ashton, Keith McLachlan and Simon Brown put their heads on the block with three wild and woolly predictions for the markets for 2024 followed by a call on the Top40 and ZAR for the year ahead. Importantly we start each show with a review of the previous year's predictions and you'll find the 2023 predictions show here.
2024-01-1137 min2023-12-1318 min
JSEDirect with Simon BrownCan Transaction Capital and Purple Group reverse their losses? (#567) Position your portfolio for 2024. Top local ETFs for 2023. Simon Shares Transaction Capital (JSE code:TCP) results swung into a massive loss, no surprise. SA Taxi loss making but overall H2 was better then H1 in all three divisions. Purple Group* (JSE code: PPE) results also swung into a loss. But as a discretionary consumer business, why is everybody so surprised? Average client has 1.45 products. This seems low, very low. Philippines not yet regulated, but they not giving up. Project delays. Tigerbrands (JSE code: TBS) show a tough environment and RFG (JSE code: RFG) may offer better value. Local...
2023-12-0621 min
2023-11-3010 min
JSEDirect with Simon BrownShare buybacks and stock compensation, the bad and the ugly (#565)Share buybacks and stock compensation, the bad and the ugly Share buybacks are good right? The company uses their free cash to buyback shares which reduces the number of remaining shares such that each share has a higher claim over future profits which adds to their value. Further they're tax efficient in that paying dividends results in dividend tax. BUT; Firstly, in cyclical stocks you need to be buying back at lows, not highs and the companies usually have no free cash at lows, so either they don't buy back or they...
2023-11-1518 min
JSEDirect with Simon BrownWhy telcos are a horrid investment (#564 The problem with telcos I have long said that telcos such as MTN (JSE code: MTN) and Vodacom (JSE code: VOD) is that they are essentially utilities and should be priced as such. But actually that statement is wrong. Sure voice (who still calls using voice?) and data are utilities like water and electricity. BUT the telcos have a problem, capex. Yes we're using more and more data but prices keep coming down, I recently bought an effective 80 GB for little over R400. And all that while capex is increasing...
2023-11-0920 min
JSEDirect with Simon BrownUpdating minister Gordhan's portfolio (#563)Updating minister Gordhan's portfolio Public Enterprises Minister Pravin Gordhan has declared his holdings, we reviewed his portfolio last time in April and there are some interesting changes, he is fairly active in buying and selling. Most notable is the total value is up almost R2million? Simon Shares Purple Group* (JSE code: PPE) have introduce a platform fee. Certain behaviours will see the fee waived and I speak to Charles Savage on my MoneywebNOW show Thursday morning. Renergen* (JSE code: REN) results show a loss, LNG output for phase 1 ±40% and helium on stream by y...
2023-11-0113 min
JSEDirect with Simon BrownLiving small, an updateLiving small, an update Back in 2017 Simon and his wife down scaled into a small (relative) apartment and also got rid of one of their cars again. As they now move again Simon updates in their experience of living small. Simon Shares Famous Brands (JSE code: FBR) results. Revenue up and HEPS lower. TigerBrands (JSE code: TBS) loses their CEO and posts a decent trading update. Jamie Dimon said central banks' forecasts have been "100% dead wrong". Sasol (JSE code: SOL) trading update, lots of movingp arts, but the market not trusting management? That said...
2023-10-2518 min
JSEDirect with Simon BrownRenergen, now what? (#561) hh Renergen* (JSE code: REN), now what? Late September the price started breaking down and end September a Tweeter started posting about them. I'm not going to defend every point raised, that's the job of the company and after an initial poor response, Monday saw a more detailed SENS. Paid research. Ultimately all research is paid for. Sometimes it is paid for by the company and here the issue is disclosure. I think the bigger issue is a complete lack of disclosure in our industry. By FinTwit...
2023-10-1821 min
JSEDirect with Simon BrownOld traders, bold traders, but no old and bold traders (#560)There are bold traders. here are old traders. There are no bold and old traders.Bold traders What is a bold trader and why do they die out? Wild swings for the fence No position size management Stop loss for losers Enter outside of system and process Simon Shares Famous Brands (JSE code: FBR) trading update, Spur (JSE code: SUR) really has taken the mantel of best QSR/restaurant business on the JSE. Very strong US jobs and upward revisions from previous month. But wage inflation only 0.2%. So...
2023-10-1117 min
2023-10-0417 min
JSEDirect with Simon BrownUS 10-year highest yield since 2007 is bad news for almost everybody (#558)US 10-year yields highest since 2007 Bad news all round (unless you buying). Almost 40% of US government debt expires in the next four years and will be re-issued at markedly higher rates, 9x higher in some cases. Money flowing into US bonds for yield. This sees less money entering the stock market Sees a stronger US$ (check DXY strength, all currncies weaker against US$) Hits valuations lower as higher rates makes cash worth less in the future, but so far the market has ignored this fact. Simon Shares
2023-09-2719 min
2023-09-2020 min
JSEDirect with Simon BrownRichemont gets interesting, Shoprite gets "extraordinary" (#556)Simon Shares Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) results "2023 was extraordinary". Chart by Koyfin 15% discount for first 2 years Richemont (JSE code: CFR) getting interesting, let's see if support holds. [caption id="attachment_40005" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Richemont weekly ~ 07Sep23[/caption]Nampak (JSE code: NPK) nil paid letters are trading, code NPKN. Remember either sell them or take up the rights. Calgro M3* (JSE code: CGR) trading statement, HEPS +20% for the first six months ending August. The latest PMIs out of Europe all quite weak, not only declining from the previous month, but lower than the preliminary numbers...
2023-09-0617 min
JSEDirect with Simon BrownResults-a-rama, we review them all (almost) (#555)Simon Shares Bidcorp - excellent AvdTech* - really good, stock at all-time highs Stadio - good student growth Motus - poor HEPS, good dividend Woolies* - not bad, but wow only got R1.1billion for David Jones Sasol - impairments galore Adcock Ingram - capacity utilisation is weak Aspen - good second half KAP - tough out there Super Group - strong numbers * I hold ungeared positions.
2023-08-3017 min
JSEDirect with Simon BrownSpur and Calgro M3 both breaking higher (#554) dd Spur and Calgro M3, two stocks I have been watching and both have seen their prices break higher. Calgro M3 (JSE code: CGR) builds lower income housing and after a few troube years os back on track. Latest results were for year ending February 2023. PE ±2.5% Cash on hand ±R172million, market cap is ±R440million NAV 951c (including unused land valued at ±30% of NAV) while share price 365c Spur (JSE code: SUR) sells fast casual food and the pandemc hurt. Latest results have some base effect as they are for six months ending June...
2023-08-2320 min
JSEDirect with Simon BrownBuying some CoronationQuick update, I buying Coronation (JSE code:CML) at ±3750c. View my portfolio ==>> www.SimonBrown.co.za
2023-02-0301 min
JSEDirect with Simon BrownGoals, processes and habits (#376)Simon Shares October was a decent month for the Top40, adding almost 3% and now 9.5% year-to-date excluding dividends. Moodys makes us negative but not junk and the ZAR soars. Finance minister, Tito Mboweni, says government 'not considering' the idea of prescribed assets. https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/national/2019-11-05-treasury-not-considering-prescribed-assets-mboweni-says/ The Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) update what was way more interesting for the fact that Christo Wiese got voted off the board, until he used his zero economic but voting shares that he tried to sell to Shoprite for some R3billion. The actual update shows SA doing well...
2019-11-0721 min
JSEDirect with Simon BrownWhat's the NAV? (348)Simon Shares The Power Hour from last week by Nerina Visser on ETF fees is awesome and online. What's the net asset value? Net asset value (NAV) is from the balance sheet and is asset less liabilities. The break up value of the company. A share will typically trade above this value as we're buying future profits, not break up value. Tangible NAV (TNAV) is better as this excludes things such as goodwill, so is a real number of actual assets. Goodwill is when you buy a business and pay more than the NAV for the...
2019-04-1817 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown#336: End of year portfolio reviewThis JSE Direct is proudly brought to you by IG, the specialists in CFD trading and a registered financial services provider. Simon Shares Somebody capitulated on Metrofile* (JSE code: MFL) this morning. The stocks hit 160c, then 239c and is now 1c up at 220c and I picked up a few on a DY of over 10%. Over R4million has traded so far, so decent volume for this stock. SENS just out is that Sabvest (JSE codes: SBV & SVN) picked up just under half of the volume at 200c - 235c. They already own just over 10...
2018-12-1319 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown#95: The financial literacy testIf you secretly hate us but haven't been able to find a different source of financial information, I have some great news! I found a Freakonomics Radio episode that summed up exactly the principles we champion on this show. In this episode, Simon and I take the financial literacy survey. It's only three questions, but understanding their answers will enable you to make great financial decisions. If this sounds vaguely familiar, you might be thinking of this podcast we did last year. Here are the questions: Suppose you have R100 in a savings account...
2018-04-091h 05
JSEDirect with Simon Brown#271: Do fees still matter?Simon Shares Finally, 5 weeks after moving my FTTH has been installed so I am going to Periscope each recording as it happens which is typically Wednesday afternoon. https://www.pscp.tv/SimonPB/ Retail trading updates coming in and as expected they are mostly bleak, but we are seeing the impact of the rains mostly returning. Netflix is a monster, over 100million customers world wide. Long4Life is buying; Holdsport and Sorbet. Steinhoff (JSE code: SNH) raises R12bn (Euro800million) in Europe with a 7.5 year bond at 1.875%. Upcoming events JSE Power Hour: Recession proof stocks Moneyweb Expo...
2017-07-2020 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown#253: Is Buffett still value?Simon Shares Metrofile* (JSE code: MFL) results were modest but the dividend was up 18% at 13c and core operations also increased 18%. You can now buy shares in the South African Reserve Bank! But should you? Sea Harvest (JSE code: SHG) will be listing later this month. I will apply for allocation. Tongaat* (JSE code: TON) is coming under some selling pressure down to around R123.50. Upcoming events JSE Power Hour: Finding that perfect share JSE Power Hour: Anthony Clark 2017 small cap picks * I hold ungeared positions. Is Buffett a value investor? @JustOneLap @SimonPB...
2017-03-0922 min
JSEDirect with Simon Brown#229: Role of a Stock Broker in your investment journeyRole of a Stock Broker in your investment journey Simon Shares More finance minister concerns and more rand weakness. The bigger picture is you have to have a bigger picture investment view otherwise events like this will hurt. In the last of this three part series if you had R300, which ETF would you buy? We ask Warren Ingram and Craig Gradidge for their view. Trading Master Class, an index trading system is online and follow up in on Monday at 1pm. Tonight in Durban we have a JSE Power Hour - 9.97562 Possible Pitfalls in Investment...
2016-08-2550 min
JSEDirect with Simon BrownJSE Direct 209: Hating on unit trustsHating on unit trusts
Simon Shares
SPIVA results for South Africa are out and they track how many active managers fail to beat the index. Truth is that even over 1 year most do NOT beat the index. In short, buy passive or lose money? The PDF of the report is here.
Standard & Poors has downgraded SA's expected GDP for 2016 from 1.6% to 0.8% further cementing the likelihood of a downgrade to junk from the rating agency.
African Bank has relaunched, but this is not the one you have shares in. The suspended ABIL sold off good assets and...
2016-04-0721 min
JSEDirect with Simon BrownJSEDirect 197 – The Predictions Show 2016We’re back! It's 2016, wowzer.
This week’s show is our annual predictions show with Marc Ashton, GM at Moneyweb, Keith McLachlan, Small/Midcap fund manager at Alpha Wealth and Simon Brown from JustOneLap.
We did our first predictions show in January 2014 and and the second a year later and this is now our third show. Find 2014 here and 2015 here. We promised to revisit our predictions a year later and here we are marking our 2015 predictions and also making our 2016 predictions.
Tweet or Facebook us your predictions.
====
Subscriber to our...
2016-01-1431 min
JSEDirect with Simon BrownJSEDirect 172: Stocks to buy and sell and the best TFSADrikus Combrinck Portfolio Manager CapiCraft Investments
Masterdrill (JSE:MDI)
Grindrod (JSE:GND)
Markel Corporation (NYSE:MKL)
We Get Mail
Helen
Which charting software is best for investing?
JC
Just watched your JSE power hour on TFSA accounts on JustOneLap. What service provider are you using as I am using XXX securities and I cannot buy DBX just do it through their funds… I want a little more flexibility.
Subscriber to our feed here or sign up for email alerts as a new show goes live or subscribe in iTunes.
JSE – The JSE is a registered t...
2015-06-1821 minJSEDirect with Simon BrownJSEDirect 152 – The Predictions ShowWe’re back! After a six month sabbatical JSEDirect is back and running from JustOneLap coming to you every Thursday. We’re making some changes that we’ll detail in the weeks ahead.
This week’s show is our annual predictions show with Marc Ashton, GM at Moneyweb, Keith Mclachlan, Small/Midcap fund manager at Alpha Wealth and Simon Brown from JustOneLap.
We did our first predictions show in January 2014 and promised to revisit our predictions a year later (find that show here) and here we are marking our 2014 predictions and also making our 2015 predictions.
Su...
2015-01-2134 min