Shows
The IRF Podcast“Is The Inflationary Threat Being Ignored?”, Manoj Pradhan, Talking Heads MacroDavid Osman of IRF is joined by Manoj Pradhan, the Co-Founder of Talking Heads Macro.
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In this podcast, Manoj Pradhan discusses the global structural factors that are pointing towards a potential regime change in the rate of inflation, with reference to such factors as ageing populations, immigration policies, deglobalisation and artificial intelligence. He assesses the extent to which the US breakeven rate currently reflects the medium-term inflationary risks. Manoj reviews these risks with particular reference to US fiscal and tariff policies, as well as the heterodox nature of President Trump’s policy agenda. He th...2025-06-1323 minThe IRF Podcast“Mispriced Markets in an Era of Uncertainty”, Helen Thomas, Blonde MoneyThe IRF is joined by Helen Thomas, the Founder & CEO of Blonde Money.
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In this podcast Helen discusses the nature and extent of the various uncertainties that have been created by the Trump Administration and those policies designed to “Make America Great Again”.
From a geopolitical perspective, Helen discusses President Trump’s approach to the Sino-US relationship, the Russian war in Ukraine and the risks of a wider military conflict in the Middle East involving Iran, Israel and the USA. She assesses the potential impact of his tariff policies on the US econom...2025-04-3040 minThe IRF Podcast"A.I. and Trump the Tech Bro – Will He Break the Long-term Bull Market in Equities?", Jonathan Wilmot, Wilmot MLDavid Osman of IRF is joined by Jonathan Wilmot of Wilmot ML.
In this podcast, Jonathan Wilmot discusses the future development of artificial intelligence with particular reference to the USA, China and the broader Macro implications. He then assesses President Trump’s agenda for his second term and notes that Trump is “an old man in a big hurry”. This is creating some uncertainties, not least the potential for high tariffs to cause some economic and financial disruption. Jonathan reviews the outlook for US economic growth, inflation and interest rates. He assesses the ramifications for the bond and st...2025-03-2128 minThe IRF Podcast"Global Financial Markets in an Era of Uncertainty", Ron William, RW AdvisoryIn this podcast Ron William of RW Advisory discusses the cyclical trends and other factors that will be having an impact on the global financial markets in 2025 and beyond. Ron assesses the investment implications for the currency, bond, equity and commodity markets. In doing so, he highlights some key non-consensus views.
In the currency markets, Ron points out the key support levels for the US dollar trade weighted index (DXY) and discusses the outlook for the dollar’s main cross rates with the euro, sterling and the Japanese yen.
In the bond markets, Ron discusses th...2025-02-2321 minThe IRF Podcast“The Outlook for World Commodity Investments in 2025”, Jeffrey Christian, CPM GroupDavid Osman of the IRF is joined by Jeffrey Christian, the founder and managing partner of the CPM Group.
Jeffrey Christian has been a prominent analyst and advisor on the commodities markets since the 1970s, with work spanning precious metals, energy markets, base metals, the agricultural markets and economic analysis. In this podcast Jeffrey provides a wide-ranging rundown on the outlook for commodity investment in 2025. He starts with an assessment of the relative prospects for the prices of gold, silver and the platinum group of metals.
In the energy sector, Jeffrey considers the various factors...2025-01-2622 minThe IRF Podcast“Investing Through The Business Cycle & Beyond”, Sharmila Whelan, Westbourne ResearchDavid Osman of IRF is joined by Sharmila Whelan, the Founder of Westbourne Research.
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In this podcast, Sharmila Whelan explains the business cycle foundations of her investment strategy and global asset allocation guidelines. She discusses the potential impact of the Trump 2.0 Administration on US domestic and foreign policies. Sharmila then assesses the outlook for world public debt in the next 5 years, and explains what this could mean for government and corporate bond markets. Focusing next on Asia, she discusses some of the key aspects of the outlook for the economies and financial markets in...2024-12-1821 minThe IRF Podcast“Back to the Future: East Asia & Trump 2.0”, Paul Cavey, East Asia EconDavid Osman of IRF is joined by Paul Cavey, the Founder of East Asia Econ.
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In this podcast, Paul Cavey discusses the various cyclical, geopolitical, political and structural factors that are influencing the economic outlook for China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. Paul assesses how the policies of the Trump 2.0 Administration could impact on the East Asian region. He compares the situation now to that in the mid-1980s at the time of the Plaza Accord currency agreement. Paul explains what is likely to be different in 2025, with particular reference to the outlook for...2024-12-1227 minThe IRF Podcast“The Trumpian Outlook for US Domestic & Foreign Policies", James Lucier, Capital Alpha PartnersDavid Osman of the IRF is joined by James Lucier, the Co-Founder and Managing Director of Capital Alpha Partners.
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In this podcast, James Lucier discusses the quality of the appointments that president-elect Donald Trump is making for his next administration that begins on 20th January 2025. James then assesses the outlook for fiscal, monetary, trade and regulatory policies in the next two years, ahead of the mid-term congressional elections in November 2026. He also discusses what these policies might mean for US economy and the dollar. James concludes with an assessment of the geopolitical outlook for...2024-11-2317 minThe IRF Podcast“Asset Allocation to Survive an Exciting 2025”, Callum Thomas, Topdown ChartsIn this podcast, Callum Thomas of Topdown Charts compares the current global interest rate cycle with the 3 previous ones. He points out what is different this time and what that might mean for the length and depth of this cycle. Callum then assesses the prospects for a reacceleration of economic growth and the associated risk of a resurgence in the rate of inflation. He discusses the implications of higher government bond yields for equity markets and other assets. Callum also compares Trump 2.0 and the current situation with the period in 2016 when Trump was first elected president and notes some...2024-11-1523 minThe IRF Podcast"Global Economy and Capital Markets; the end of Business as Usual", Paul Hodges, New Normal ConsultingPaul Hodges, Founder of New Normal Consulting draws on over 30 years of experience in the chemicals, energy and IT industries to outline the most likely scenarios in the wake of the recent US Presidential election, asking to what extent Donald Trump will be able to implement his stated agenda given the secular forces at work in the global economy.
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Hodges sets the scene through his analysis of how demographic trends will impact supply and demand through the major developed economies, along with the major secular changes facing key industries such as chemicals and energy.2024-11-1549 minThe IRF PodcastChina 2025: Stimulus Meets Debt-Deflation and Global Headwinds, Brian McCarthy, MacrolensBrian highlighted significant concerns about the Chinese economy, emphasising that its investment-led growth model is collapsing, with a real estate crisis leading to multi-trillion-dollar losses and debt deflation risks. He expressed scepticism about the effectiveness of anticipated stimulus measures, noting that while they may provide temporary support, they are unlikely to fundamentally change the economic trajectory. Brian pointed out structural issues such as unsustainable debt levels, reliance on central planning, and weak profit growth, making Chinese equities unattractive. He concluded that without meaningful policy changes or abandoning the currency peg, China faces prolonged economic stagnation, akin to Japan's deflationary...2024-11-131h 01The IRF PodcastThe Budget - In Reeves we Trust? Helen Thomas, Blonde MoneyHelen Thomas of Blonde Money presents a three-part analysis of Rachel Reeves’ budget approach, focusing on her ideological foundations, probable budget content, and projected market impact. Thomas examines Reeves’ underlying ideology, shaped by a socialist perspective highlighted in her Mais lecture, where Reeves critiques modern capitalism's failure to enhance growth, democratic engagement, and living standards. Reeves’ outlook distances her from Tony Blair's New Labour approach, which she deems insufficiently bold in addressing labour market insecurity. As a result, her budget framework aims for broader structural change while appeasing both the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) and Labour’s diverse coalitio2024-10-2955 minThe IRF PodcastEmerging Markets - The Myth that Failed? Manoj Pradhan - Talking Heads Macro; Jon Anderson - Emerging Advisors Group & JP Smith - IRFWe hosted a group call on “Investing in Emerging Markets” with Manoj Pradhan, Talking Heads Macro and Jon Anderson, Emerging Advisors Group and JP Smith. JP kicked off the session by advocating for nuanced investment strategies and skilled active management rather than viewing EMs as a single asset class. Manoj argued that significant stress often drives reform, as seen in India. He highlighted Brazil's resilience and identified specific opportunities in India, Indonesia, and South Africa, cautioning against blanket investment strategies. Jon noted that while China’s GDP growth has been substantial, equity returns remain low due to share dilution. He hig...2024-10-241h 21The IRF Podcast“Japan: A Safe Haven In A Troubled World?”, Tobias Harris, Japan ForesightIn this podcast Tobias Harris of Japan Foresight discusses the political situation in Japan and the potential impact of the new Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishida. Tobias then considers the various geopolitical concerns that Japan faces in the Northeast Asian region and the wider world. In particular, he assesses the potential impact of sharply higher crude oil prices on the Japanese economy if the military conflict in the Middle East escalates further. Tobias also reviews the scope for the Japanese government to adjust economic policy, with reference to both the monetary and fiscal policy outlook. In addition, he assesses the...2024-10-2018 minThe IRF Podcast"Contrarian Alert: Why the Chinese Yuan Could Strengthen", Diana Choyleva, Enodo EconomicsIn this podcast Diana Choyleva explains the reasons for her contrarian call on the near-term outlook for the Chinese currency. She discusses the deep-seated problems in the Chinese economy, particularly those in the property sector, and assesses the overall effectiveness of the government’s economic policies. In addition, Diana highlights the geopolitical factors that are now hampering China’s economic development, not least the threat of potential military action against the neighbouring island of Taiwan. She also assesses the investment opportunities in the Chinese bond and stock markets, particularly from the viewpoint of international investors in what is becoming a mo...2024-09-1331 minThe IRF Podcast“The Return of 1980s Currency Volatility”, Andrew Hunt, Andrew Hunt EconomicsIn this podcast Andrew Hunt discusses in detail the key underlying monetary trends in the main Western economies and explains why he expects a new era of lower interest rates and greater currency volatility as the post-Plaza world crumbles. After an assessment of the outlook for the US economy and financial markets, Andrew considers the deep-seated problems in the Chinese economy and how these will impact on the rest of the world. In Europe, Andrew reviews the diverse economic factors in various countries and assesses the implications for the conduct of monetary policy by the ECB and by the...2024-09-0818 minThe IRF Podcast"How Demographic Trends Will Impact Investment Performance", Shamil Ismail, PrimaresearchIn this podcast Shamil Ismail discusses how the rapidly evolving demographic trends will impact on global financial markets. He points out that the strong growth of the global population over the past century provided a firm underpin for market growth. Shamil explains how these demographic trends are changing as some countries’ populations are decreasing and there is a rising proportion of older people (who consume less). Several major markets – including China, Japan, Italy, Germany and South Korea – have ageing and declining populations already. According to Shamil, these demographic shifts will have a significant impact on investment performance as demand weaken...2024-09-0219 minThe IRF Podcast“Global Financial Markets: Momentum, Risks and Outlook”, Ron William, RW AdvisoryDavid Osman of IRF is joined by Ron William, the Founder of RW Advisory.
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Ron William is a market strategist with over 20 years of experience producing macro research and trading strategies for leading economic research and institutional firms.
In this podcast Ron reviews the performance of the global financial markets in the first half of 2024 and discusses the outlook for the second half of this year. In the currency markets, he explains that the dollar’s trade-weighted index is at a critical level and discusses some of the key risk fact...2024-07-2527 minThe IRF Podcast“Monetary Policy and the Hidden Financial Stability Agenda”, Peter Warburton, Economic PerspectivesIn this podcast Peter Warburton, the founder of Economic Perspectives, discusses the outlook for global inflation and the limited scope for action by the major central banks in the US, EU, UK and Japan. Peter also highlights his concerns about the conduct of fiscal policy in several countries since 2019. In doing so, he outlines his contrarian view on financial stability as a constraint on central bank actions in a more fragile financial environment. In addition, Peter assesses the probable impact of these various monetary policy decisions on the currency and other financial markets in the next 6 – 18 months.
Pe...2024-07-0127 minThe IRF Podcast“Is the EU on the Right Track?”, Wolfgang Munchau, EurointelligenceDavid Osman of the IRF is joined by Wolfgang Munchau, the Founder of Eurointelligence.
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In this podcast, Wolfgang Munchau assesses the outlook for Russia’s attritional war on Ukraine from a European perspective and discusses how it is likely to end. Wolfgang notes that the Ukraine war, and other global developments, have had a profound impact on Germany’s export-orientated economy, where the manufacturing sector now needs to evolve and adapt to changing geopolitical and technological circumstances. He points out that these factors are hampering the growth potential in Germany and across the EU.
2024-05-2734 minThe IRF Podcast“Is An Inflation Regime Change Underway?”, Manoj Pradhan, Talking Heads MacroIn 2020, Manoj Pradhan and Charles Goodhart produced a very influential book, which was entitled: “The Great Demographic Reversal – Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality and an Inflation Revival”. In their book they predicted that in the medium-term inflation would take off and that interest rates would increase in response to secular trends, such as ageing societies and deglobalisation. They argued that this revival of inflation would not be transitory.
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In this podcast, Manoj Pradhan assesses the importance of deglobalisation, supply chain constraints, labour shortages, productivity trends, A.I. and demographics for the inflation outlook. Manoj then discus...2024-04-2427 minThe IRF Podcast"The US Economic, Political and Investment Outlook", David Metzner & Chris Czerwinski, ACG AnalyticsDavid Osman of the IRF is joined by David Metzner and Chris Czerwinski of ACG Analytics.
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ACG Analytics is an independent research firm that translates public policy for investment fund managers and analysts. Their research focuses on specific policy issues and actions in the United States, the European Union, Asia and Latin America. They anticipate how government policies in key markets may impact on investor strategies.
In this podcast David Metzner and Chris Czerwinski discuss the prospects for the US economy in the run-up to the US presidential and congressional e...2024-03-2826 minThe IRF Podcast"The Politics of Macroeconomic Stabilisation in Argentina; Can President Milei Succeed?", Nicholas Watson, TeneoJP Smith of the IRF is joined by Nicholas Watson, Managing Director of Teneo Political Risk Advisory, to discuss whether the recently elected President Javier Milei will be able to succeed where his predecessors have failed, namely to implement the necessary measures which would lead to a durable stabilisation of the crisis-stricken Argentinian economy.
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In his assessment, Nicholas discusses the social and political context and draws on a series of meetings from his recent extensive fact-finding visit to Argentina, to incorporate the latest developments and outline the key potential scenarios for the coming months.2024-03-2138 minThe IRF Podcast"Global Investing at a Time of War", David Murrin, Global ForecasterDavid Osman of the IRF is joined by David Murrin, the Founder of Global Forecaster, who is renowned for the development of unique and effective behavioural models that predict financial markets.
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In this podcast, David Murrin discusses the importance of the Kondratiev (K-wave) commodity super-cycle to the outlook both for inflation and other financial markets. He explains the implications of the K-wave (which is expected to peak in approximately 2030 or 2031) for his “Five Stages of Empire” model and what this means for empires in decline (such as USA and the EU) and empires that are...2024-02-2845 minThe IRF Podcast“Global Financial Markets: Recent Trends and Future Prospects”, Ron William, RW AdvisoryDavid Osman of IRF is joined by Ron William, the Founder of RW Advisory.
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Ron William is a market strategist with over 20 years of experience producing macro research and trading strategies for leading economic research & institutional firms. He specialises in blended, top-down, semi-discretionary analysis, driven by cycles and by his proprietary timing models, which use both quantitative and qualitative techniques.
In this podcast Ron explains why the trade-weighted dollar index (DXY) is likely to depreciate and assesses the outlook for the US currency against the euro, sterling and the Japanese yen. He...2024-01-2524 minThe IRF Podcast“Sustainable Investment Opportunities and Risks in 2024”, Lenka Martinek, Sustainable Market StrategiesThe IRF is joined by Lenka Martinek, Managing Partner at Sustainable Market Strategies (SMS), an ESG consultancy firm that specialises in bespoke Environmental, Social & Governance-related research and investment advice.
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In this podcast Lenka Martinek reviews the performance of ESG investments in 2023 and highlights the influence of global geopolitical and macroeconomic factors on sustainable portfolios. She identifies some of the best and worst ESG investment themes over the past year. Lenka then discusses the limited impact of the recent COP28 annual climate summit meeting, even though she believes that the various consequences of climate change...2023-12-2217 minThe IRF Podcast“The Outlook for the US Economy and Financial Markets in 2024”, Brian Pellegrini, Intertemporal EconomicsDavid Osman of the IRF is joined by Brian Pellegrini, the Founder and Senior Analyst of Intertemporal Economics.
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Brian founded Intertemporal Economics in 2018. Previously he worked with Bernard Connolly as a senior analyst at Connolly Insight, where he specialised in geopolitical event risk, monetary policy, labour markets and energy. Prior to Connolly Insight, Brian was employed in various positions across Wall Street, including working with high-growth technology firms raising capital, structuring options trades and valuing asset-backed securities.
Intertemporal Economics uses an in-depth analytical framework, which is based on microeconomic foundations. T...2023-11-2827 minThe IRF Podcast“The Outlook For World Commodity Prices”, Jeffrey Christian, CPM GroupDavid Osman of the IRF is joined by Jeffrey Christian, the Founder and Managing Partner of the CPM Group.
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Jeffrey has been a prominent analyst and advisor on the commodities markets since the 1970s, with work spanning precious metals, energy markets, base metals, the agricultural markets and economic analysis.
In this podcast Jeff provides a wide-ranging rundown on the outlook for commodity prices in the near term and in the longer run. He assesses the relative prospects for the prices of gold, silver, platinum and palladium.
In the energy sector...2023-11-0914 minThe IRF Podcast“Latin American Politics: Navigating The Rapids”, Marcos Buscaglia, Alberdi PartnersDavid Osman of the IRF is joined by Marcos Buscaglia, the Founder of Alberdi Partners.
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In this podcast Marcos discusses the political and economic outlook for various countries in Latin America, including Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Ecuador.
Marcos founded Alberdi Partners in 2016 to provide economic, political and market research services on Latin American countries for institutional investors and corporations. The Alberdi Partners team share in the decision processes of their clients, with close interactions. They produce a combination of deep macro and political analysis with detailed number crunching, including the use of...2023-11-0332 minThe IRF Podcast“Japan: Back in the Big Time?”, Ryoji Musha, Musha ResearchDavid Osman of the IRF is joined by Ryoji Musha, the Founder of Musha Research.
Ryoji Musha founded Musha Research in 2009 following a long and distinguished career working for leading global investment banks in Japan and the USA since 1973. During that period, he achieved the top-rating for Japan Equity Strategy in the Institutional Investor polls.
In this podcast Ryoji Musha discusses the reasons for the dramatic improvement in the outlook for the Japanese economy. He identifies the importance of the improving competitiveness of the Japanese yen against the US dollar and cr...2023-09-1522 minThe IRF Podcast“The Global Financial Markets in 2023 and Beyond”, Ron William, RW AdvisoryDavid Osman of IRF is joined by Ron William, the Founder of RW Advisory.
Ron is a market strategist with over 20 years of experience producing macro research and trading strategies for leading economic research and institutional firms.
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In this podcast Ron reviews the performance of the US dollar in the first half of this year and assesses the outlook for the US currency against the euro, sterling, the Japanese yen and the Chinese yuan. Turning next to the main government bond markets, he discusses the macro impact of the longer-term generational trends...2023-07-1727 minThe IRF Podcast“ESG Investing: Pitfalls and Potential Opportunities”, Lenka Martinek, Sustainable Market StrategiesThe IRF is joined by Lenka Martinek, Managing Partner at Sustainable Market Strategies (SMS), an ESG consultancy firm that specialises in bespoke environmental, social & governance-related research and investment advice.
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ESG investing has become an essential aspect of the services that many financial institutions provide for their clients. Given the growing popularity of ethical investments, environmental, social and governance considerations will inevitably become a more important part of portfolio investment decisions in the future. In this podcast Lenka Martinek discusses the evolving geopolitical factors that are influencing the prospects for ESG investments.
Lenka...2023-06-2623 minThe IRF Podcast“A Diabolical Mechanism”, Mark Latham, Commodity IntelligenceIn conversation with the IRF's JP Smith, Mark Latham Founder and CEO of Commodity Intelligence explains how his news story driven AI process helps the team to identify prevailing narratives in the market and potential inflection points.
----more---- Over the past three years this approach has led to some very timely calls, including a relatively bearish stance on the energy complex in 2022 prior to the big falls in the prices of oil and natural gas.
Here, Mark lays out the results of his current analysis and summarises his views in the wake of the recent...2023-06-2651 minThe IRF Podcast“The Outlook for the Turkish Economy and Financial Assets”, Michael Harris, Cribstone Strategic MacroThis latest episode of the IRF Podcast looks at the outlook for the Turkish economy and financial assets in the wake of Turkey's 2023 first-round election.
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IRF Senior Advisor, JP Smith hosts Michael Harris, Founder of Cribstone Strategic Macro, who's been ranked number one strategist for Turkey thirteen times.
Mike outlines the probable outcome for the forthcoming second round, likely future policy developments and identifies the key scenarios for the Turkish Lira and equity market, paying particular attention to the possibility of further destabilising capital flight and dollarisation of the domestic ec...2023-05-1739 minThe IRF Podcast“US Economic Policy: Teetering on an Inflationary Equilibrium”, Brian Pellegrini, Intertemporal EconomicsThe IRF is joined by Brian Pellegrini, the Founder of Intertemporal Economics.
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In this podcast Brian Pellegrini discusses the political factors that influence the recurring problems relating to Congress passing legislation to raise the US debt ceiling. Brian reflects on the various fiscal, monetary and macro-prudential policy dilemmas associated with the recent spike in inflationary pressures, the impact of higher interest rates and the consequent financial instability in the financial sector due, in part, to several regional bank failures.
Given the potential problems in the bond market, he expects the F...2023-05-1521 minThe IRF Podcast“The Outlook for the UK and US Economies and Financial Markets”, Helen Thomas, Blonde MoneyThe IRF is joined by Helen Thomas, the Founder & CEO of Blonde Money.
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In this podcast Helen reflects on Rishi Sunak’s premiership so far and assesses the prospects for the UK economy and financial markets in the year ahead. She discusses the outlook for economic growth, inflation and monetary policy.
Helen compares the outlook for interest rates and government bond yields in the US and the UK, noting key differences between the policies of the US Fed and those of the Bank of England. She concludes with an as...2023-04-1824 minThe IRF Podcast“Approaching a Tipping Point for Growth and Inflation Expectations”, Patrick Perret-Green, PPG MacroJP Smith of the IRF is joined by Patrick Perret-Green, the Founder of PPG Macro.
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In this podcast Patrick argues that the impact of the problems in the banking sector is likely to be highly disinflationary as the contraction in credit creation outweighs the creation of money by the US Fed. Whilst the stock of money supply remains extremely high, the flow is contracting at a rate unseen in the lifetime of most market participants.
Moreover, the expectation that high inflation is here to stay has become consensus, partly on th...2023-04-0859 minThe IRF Podcast“Canada: On Course for a Soft Landing in 2023/24?”, Ben Rabidoux, North Cove AdvisorsDavid Osman of IRF is joined by Ben Rabidoux, the Founder of North Cove Advisors.
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They discuss the importance of the housing sector as a driver of consumer spending and broader economic growth in Canada. The Canadian government is trying to achieve a soft-landing with the central bank providing an appropriate degree of monetary tightening to curb inflation without creating a recession. According to the Bank of Canada, higher interest rates are working their way through an overheated economy.
Canadians are feeling the pinch of high inflation and concern about an economic...2023-03-0314 minThe IRF Podcast“Navigating the World with an Inverted Yield Curve”, Michael Churchill, Churchill ResearchDavid Osman of IRF is joined by Michael Churchill, the founder of Churchill Research.
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In this podcast Michael discusses the economic and financial implications of the worst bond yield inversion for 40 years. He argues that the curve inversion is saying that the Fed is overdoing it.
Historically, that is a recession predictor – albeit with a long lead time. But so far other indicators are not corroborating a near-term deflationary recession. He points out that the 2020-21 helicopter drop was of world-historical enormity – and now it’s being worked off. This has created all ki...2023-03-0218 minThe IRF PodcastResearch and Markets: “Buckle up for an Increase in Volatility”, JP Smith, IRFIRF represents high-quality and differentiated Independent Research and Alternative Data Providers.
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This is the fifth episode of the IRF Research and Markets Podcast series.
In this edition, experienced market practitioner JP Smith reviews the analysis and views of some key IRF Providers focusing on the lively debate over US inflation and the relationship with commodity prices, bonds and equity markets, with a particular emphasis on emerging market equities and the extent to which the consensus bullish view is consistent with the outlook for the key country constituents.
IRF Providers mentioned...2023-03-0242 minThe IRF Podcast“The Fed’s Dim Chances of Getting Inflation Under Control”, David Ranson, HCWE & Co.David Osman of IRF is joined by David Ranson, the president of HCWE & Co. for the latest episode of the IRF Podcast. Here David Ranson discusses the misunderstood causes of inflation and the consequent undermining of sound money as a store value. He highlights the importance of the quality of money, as opposed to the quantity.
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David also explains why the 30-year forward price of gold is the best way to assess the quality of money and he argues that the current burst of inflation was not generally expected because the cause has not b...2023-02-0216 minThe IRF PodcastResearch and Markets: “China and Energy Prices will be the key Drivers of Financial Markets in 2023”, JP Smith, IRFIRF represents high-quality and differentiated Independent Research and Alternative Data Providers. This is the fourth episode of the IRF Research and Markets Podcast series, available on Apple, Spotify and Google.
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In this edition, experienced market practitioner JP Smith reviews the analysis and views of some key IRF Providers focusing on the outlook for energy prices, bonds and equities in the light of recent developments in China and the conflict between Russia and the Ukraine.
This episode includes: CrossBorder Capital, Talking Heads Macro, The pH Report, Emerging Advisors Group, PRC Macro, Gl...2023-01-1828 minThe IRF Podcast“The Financial Markets in 2022 and 2023”, Ron William, RW AdvisoryDavid Osman of the IRF is joined by Ron William, the Founder of RW Advisory to discuss the performance of the US dollar in 2022 and indicate how he expects it to perform against other major currencies in 2023.
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Ron compares the similar trends in the US and UK government bond markets and points out the implications for both interest rates and bond yields in 2023.
With respect to the world’s major stock markets, Ron contrasts the remarkably different trends in the US S&P 500 Index and the UK FTSE 100 Inde...2022-12-2021 minThe IRF Podcast“Japan in 2023: A Year of Major Transformation and Opportunities”, Ryoji Musha, Musha ResearchDavid Osman of the IRF is joined by Ryoji Musha, the Founder of Musha Research. Musha Research was founded in 2009 following Ryoji Musha's long and distinguished career working for leading global investment banks in Japan and the USA since 1973. During that period, he achieved the top-rating for Japan Equity Strategy in the Institutional Investor polls.
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This podcast explores why the Japanese economy is beginning to emerge from the torpor of the post-1990 crash that has dogged the country for over three decades. In 2022 a weaker yen has transformed Japan’s international competitive pos...2022-12-1424 minThe IRF Podcast“The Outlook for Commodity Prices in 2023”, Jeffrey Christian, CPM GroupDavid Osman of the IRF is joined by Jeffrey Christian, the Founder and Managing Partner of CPM Group.
Jeffrey has been a prominent analyst and advisor on the commodities markets since the 1970s with work spanning precious metals, energy markets, base metals, the agricultural markets and economic analysis.
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In this podcast Jeffrey provides a wide-ranging rundown on the outlook for commodities in 2023. He assesses the relative prospects for the prices of gold and silver, as well as the differing outlook for the prices of platinum and palladium.
In t...2022-12-1317 minThe IRF PodcastResearch and Markets: “Inflation, Redistribution, Emerging Markets and why Investors Should Adopt a More Absolute Return-Oriented Mindset”, JP Smith, IRFIRF represents high-quality and differentiated Independent Research and Alternative Data Providers. This is the third episode of the IRF Research and Markets Podcast series, available on Apple, Spotify and Google.
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In this edition experienced market practitioner, JP Smith examines the analysis and views of the IRF's best-in-class Independent Research Providers on the outlook for inflation, China, emerging markets and the Russia/Ukraine conflict.
JP outlines the shift in the market environment compared with the post-GFC period from 2009 to 2020 and suggests strategies for investors to preserve the real value of their a...2022-12-0537 minThe IRF Podcast“The UK Back From the Brink; Regeneration Through Deleveraging”, Dr Peter Warburton, Economic PerspectivesIn this latest episode of the IRF Podcast series, available on Apple, Spotify and Google, JP Smith of the IRF is joined by Dr Peter Warburton, Founder of Economic Perspectives, to discuss the structural outlook for the UK economy in the wake of the recent budget.
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Economic Perspectives take an eclectic approach to the inflation outlook, considering political and socio-economic factors alongside macroeconomic drivers, building on the analysis of the development of global debt markets laid out in Peter's book 'Debt and Delusion'.
In this podcast, Peter spells out how p...2022-11-2526 minThe IRF Podcast“Joining up the dots in China”, Anne Stevenson-Yang, J Capital ResearchJP Smith of the IRF is joined by Anne Stevenson-Yang Co-Founder and CEO of J Capital Research to discuss the political and economic outlook in China.
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J Capital combines both top-down macro and bottom-up industry and company specific analysis in the research and consultancy service for institutional investors.
In this podcast, Anne discusses the prospects for Covid reopening in the context of Beijing's ongoing shift towards more authoritarian and autarkic policies. She outlines the case for continuing slow growth, pours cold water over the liklihood of a rebalancing towards consumer s...2022-11-1437 minThe IRF Podcast“Turkey: An Emerging Market Opportunity?”, Zekeriya Ozturk, iRes Independent Financial Research & AdvisoryDavid Osman of the IRF is joined by Zekeriya Ozturk, the Founder of iRes Independent Financial Research & Advisory.
What does the future hold for Turkish politics, the economy and the financial markets? In a world that has become more divided between East and West, Turkey’s position at the crossroads of Europe and Asia gives it even greater importance in both economic and geopolitical terms. With a population of over 84 million people and a GDP per capita of over US$8,000, Turkey has enormous emerging market potential. Zekeriya has over 25 years of top-quality experience of the financial markets in...2022-11-1423 minThe IRF PodcastResearch and Markets: “Key Developments in Emerging Markets, China and Russia/Ukraine”, JP Smith, IRFWe are delighted to bring you the next episode of IRF's new podcast series, Research and Markets: “Key Developments in Emerging Markets, China and Russia/Ukraine”, hosted by JP Smith.----more----
JP is an experienced market practitioner as former Head of EM Equity & Chief Strategist at Pictet and Equity Strategist at Deutsche Bank. This podcast series aims to provide greater awareness around IRF's Independent Research Providers by generating topical and relevant content. JP highlights research and draws on material from publicly available news sources, social media, and other podcasts to monitor the shifting debates and narratives that move...2022-10-2021 minThe IRF Podcast“The Revival of Inflation: What Next?”, Manoj Pradhan, Talking Heads MacroDavid Osman of the IRF is joined by Manoj Pradhan, the Co-Founder of Talking Heads Macro.
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In 2019, Manoj Pradhan and Charles Goodhart co-authored a very influential book, entitled: “The Great Demographic Reversal – Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality and an Inflation Revival”. With its focus on longer-term trends, this book sets out important signposts to the demographic, economic and social trends that will be increasingly important in the post-pandemic decades. In their book they predicted that inflation would take off and that interest rates would Increase in response to secular trends, such as ageing societies and deglob...2022-10-0427 minThe IRF PodcastResearch and Markets: “What is the Next Market Regime?”, JP Smith, IRFThe IRF is excited to announce a new podcast series titled ‘Research and Markets’ hosted by JP Smith, an experienced market practitioner as former Head of EM Equity at Pictet and Sell-Side Strategist at Deutsche. ----more----This podcast aims to provide greater awareness around the IRF's Independent Research Providers by generating topical and relevant content. JP highlights research and draws on material from publicly available news sources, social media, and other podcasts to monitor the shifting debates and narratives that move markets.
The focus will be on medium and long term thematic issues rather than day to day trad...2022-09-2733 minThe IRF Podcast“US Politics: The Prospects for 2023 & 2024”, James Lucier, Capital Alpha Partners David Osman of the IRF is joined by James Lucier, Managing Director of Capital Alpha Partners, a leading provider of American strategic policy research and political forecasting. James discusses the outlook for the US mid-term congressional elections and how these may impact President Biden’s 4-year term in the run-up to the next US presidential election. He shares with us the prospects for another Biden versus Trump race for the White House in 2024 and considers some of the other younger candidates in the Democrat and Republican parties who may come to the fore. With cost of living and interest ra...2022-09-0722 minThe IRF Podcast“China: CBB Proprietary Data Tells A Different Story”, Leland Miller, China Beige BookDavid Osman of the IRF is joined by Leland Miller, the Founder and CEO of China Beige Book, an independent advisory firm that was established in 2010.
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Leland Miller is a noted authority on China’s economy and financial system. He is an elected member of the National Committee on US-China Relations, the Economic Club of New York and the Council on Foreign Relations. Leland is also a board member of the Global Interdependence Center and a non-resident Senior Fellow at the Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security at the Atlantic Council.
C...2022-08-1219 minThe IRF Podcast“UK Politics: Continuity or Discontinuity?”, Helen Thomas, Blonde MoneyDavid Osman of the IRF is joined by Helen Thomas, the Founder and CEO of Blonde Money, an independent consultancy firm that was established in 2014.
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Helen Thomas has had an impressive career in both finance and politics. Helen was an adviser to the former Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne and she also created the Financial Markets Reform Programme for the think tank, Policy Exchange. Previously, Helen has been a partner in the global macro hedge fund, ABD Investment Management and a former Head of Currency Alpha for State Street Global Advisors. The Blonde...2022-08-0422 minThe IRF Podcast“The Causes and Consequences of the Fed’s Misjudgement”, John Ryding, RDQ Economics JP Smith of the IRF is joined by John Ryding of RDQ Economics, a US based macro-economics consultancy which he founded along with former Bear Stearns colleague Conrad Dequadros in 2008, to discuss the outlook for the US economy over the coming months.
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John describes the process and approach of RDQ fusing economic history and John and Conrad’s own extensive experience of the relationship between macro-economics and financial markets, with the more classical economic modelling and data-based techniques. This eclectic methodology enabled RDQ to be well ahead of the consensus in forecasting much higher infl...2022-07-2253 minThe IRF Podcast“Charting Future Trends in the World Stock Markets”, Lane Dusserre, SMIDavid Osman of the IRF is joined by Lane Dusserre, the President of SMI, a global equity market strategy advisory service, which was established in New York in 1962.
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Lane Dusserre is an expert in global investment management, with a long career that has included portfolio management at top European institutions and investment advisory consulting to leading institutions in Europe, Asia and the USA.
SMI provides technical research consulting on global equity markets and industry sectors. The analysis predicts the direction, duration and magnitude of equity market trends, both short-term and intermediate-term trends...2022-07-2116 minThe IRF Podcast“The UK Cost of Credit Crisis”, Dr Peter Warburton, Economic PerspectivesDavid Osman of the IRF is joined by Peter Warburton, the Founder of Economic Perspectives, which he established in 1996.
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Peter Warburton discusses the way that the UK cost of living crisis is being compounded by a cost of credit crisis. Peter argues that following the global financial crisis in 2008/09, there has been a prolonged period of financial repression with low interest rates and the suppression of debt default. The impending credit crunch is not only due to rising interest rates, as there are also concerns about the mispricing of credit risks. Hence, with the...2022-05-1918 minThe IRF Podcast“World War 3”, David Murrin, Global ForecasterDavid Osman of the IRF is joined by David Murrin, the Founder of Global Forecaster who is renowned for the development of unique and effective behavioural models, which when combined with a geopolitical overlay have a most impressive track record at predicting financial markets. David has also authored the highly acclaimed book, Breaking The Code of History, which has striking parallels with the work of Ray Dalio.
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David discusses the importance of the Kondratiev Wave commodity super-cycle on the outlook for inflation and other financial markets. He explains the implications of the K Wave fo...2022-04-2124 minThe IRF Podcast“The US Economic Outlook: A Profitable Non-Consensus View”, Barry Knapp, Ironsides MacroeconomicsDavid Osman of the IRF is joined by Barry Knapp, the Managing Partner and Head of Macro & Public Policy Strategy at Ironsides Macroeconomics, which he founded in 2019 and is based in Colorado.----more----
In a world that has been rocked by a global pandemic, supply chain disruptions, an energy crisis and the ramifications of Russia’s atrocious war on Ukraine, the USA has some obvious attractions. Barry Knapp has had a long and distinguished career in the financial sector with a number of leading investment firms. His career has evolved from equity derivatives to principal trading, then eq...2022-04-0427 minThe IRF Podcast“Is ESG investing, with its focus on environmental, social and governance matters, just a passing fashion or a really good long-term investment opportunity?” Julian Morris, Unicus ResearchDavid Osman of the IRF is joined by Julian Morris, the Chief Economist of Unicus Research, which is based in New York.----more----
In addition to his expertise in economic and financial matters, Julian Morris is an acknowledged expert on environmental, health and technology issues with nearly three decades of relevant experience for ESG investing. ESG funds have become more popular with investors and have performed well in both 2020 and 2021. However, it is not so easy to define exactly what is (or is not) environmentally friendly, social or good governance. Increasing regulation and litigation are adding to...2022-03-1124 minThe IRF Podcast“Is US Monetary Policy Struggling to Catch Up with Inflationary Pressures” Brian Pellegrini, Intertemporal EconomicsDavid Osman of the IRF is joined by Brian Pellegrini, the founder of Intertemporal Economics, which is based in New York.
----more----Central banks around the world face difficult choices with respect to the trade-off between employment and inflation, none more so than the US Federal Reserve. Monetary policy is becoming less accommodative, but how tight will it become? In this podcast, Brian Pellegrini discusses the outlook for US monetary policy before and after the mid-term congressional elections in November. With US interest rates soon to be back on a rising trend, Brian focusses on the potential changes...2022-02-0919 minThe IRF Podcast“Russia and the Ukraine; David Roche cuts through the markets’ complacency”, David Roche, Independent StrategyLegendary strategist David Roche, founder and CEO of Independent Strategy, in conversation with the IRF's own JP Smith, himself a former specialist on Russia, focusing on the implications of the build up of Russia's forces around the borders of the Ukraine.----more----
Putin's prioritises political and ideological motives over economic and/or financial considerations, he is therefore very likely to take some tangible military actions, most likely after the Beijing Olympics.
The US has persuaded its European allies to co-operate in the imposition of stringent sanctions should Russia move militarily. These sanctions combined with the likely Russian response w...2022-02-0249 minThe IRF Podcast“Data driven and pragmatic; Don Luskin takes on the bears”, Donald Luskin, TrendMacroIRF’s JP Smith is joined by Donald Luskin of TrendMacro in this riveting podcast where Donald iterates his view that the post-pandemic bull market is not over.----more----
Recalling past crises, Donald remarks that such events promote rapid innovation. In the case of the Covid-19 pandemic, technological innovations have partly facilitated vast growth. Thus, despite the challenge of reliably measuring productivity and a workforce reduced by 5 million, US GDP on a real inflation adjusted basis is far higher than pre-pandemic levels. Addressing the elephant in the room, the looming impact of the Omicron variant, Donald draws on...2021-12-211h 02The IRF Podcast“The Inflationary Implications of ESG and the Climate Transition – Some Considerations”, James Aitken, Aitken AdvisorsDavid Osman of the IRF is joined by James Aitken, the founder of Aitken Advisors, which is based in London.----more----
Consumers are becoming increasingly focused on ESG investing, not just for environmental reasons, but also for social and governance matters. This, along with increasing ESG financial regulation, is putting greater pressures on the investment decisions of institutional investors. Given the strong political momentum behind climate change concerns, James Aitken points out that inflows into ESG and climate related funds are likely to increase substantially in the years ahead. James warns that the ESG and climate tsunami...2021-12-1424 minThe IRF Podcast“The Outlook for Precious Metals”, Jeffrey Christian, CPM GroupDavid Osman of the IRF is joined by Jeffrey Christian, the founder & managing partner at the CPM Group, which is based in New York.----more----
Bond and equity markets have risen to valuation levels that are expensive. In the face of rising inflationary expectations, several of the major central banks are now looking to tighten their monetary policy stance. Interest rates are generally expected to be on a gently rising trend in 2022. In these circumstances, many investors are looking to increase the weightings of precious metals and other commodities in their portfolios. A key consideration is what...2021-11-2524 minThe IRF Podcast“When Does TINA (There Is No Alternative) End?”, Chris Watling, Longview EconomicsDavid Osman of the IRF Podcast team is joined by by Chris Watling, the founder, CEO and Chief Market Strategist at Longview Economics, which is based in London.
----more----Many global investors have come to the conclusion that the equity markets are the best place to investment at present. This has been an important factor driving the rise in stock markets to higher and higher valuations in recent times. Will this continue? When will it end? What happens when it does end? In this podcast, Chris Watling of Longview Economics discusses these questions and other important issues. He...2021-11-0419 minThe IRF Podcast”Where next for China’s big bang policy reforms”, William Hess, PRC MacroDavid Osman of the IRF Podcast team is joined by William Hess, the co-CEO and co-Head of Research at PRC Macro, which is based in Beijing and New York.
----more----With global investors becoming increasingly concerned about the recent big bang policy developments in China, PRC Macro is ideally positioned to identify and analyse key developments in the Chinese economy, not least in the property sector and the financial markets. Established in 2012, PRC Macro develops economic information and forecasting services to fill the large analytical gaps that exist with respect to China’s political economy. They do this th...2021-10-1423 minThe IRF Podcast“Finding US Equity Ideas”, Jonathan Boyar, Boyar ResearchEdward Blad of the IRF Podcast is joined by Jonathan Boyar, Managing Director of Boyar Research, to discuss US equity ideas.
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Boyar Research carries out fundamental research rigorously going through company’s financial statements, tearing them apart and reconstructing them in accordance with economic reality as opposed to generally accepted accounting principles. They seek possible investment opportunities across the market capitalisation spectrum and within a diverse range of industries. A large number of the companies featured in their publications are not widely followed by Wall Street. Boyar's Forgotten Forty portfolio has produced an average ann...2021-10-0717 minThe IRF Podcast”Investing During a Saw Tooth Pandemic Recovery” David Roche, Independent StrategyDavid Osman of the IRF Podcast is joined by David Roche, President and Global Strategist of Independent Strategy, to discuss ‘investing during a saw tooth pandemic recovery’. Independent Strategy is a macro research company focused on long and short term investment, which is unafraid to challenge conventional wisdom. ----more----
David explains that a normal cyclical recovery post pandemic is impossible. The saw tooth recovery pattern is one where there is a huge boom once the sector is unlocked, followed by decline towards a trend growth rate. The timing and extent of the boom is largely dependent on the se...2021-09-0615 minThe IRF Podcast"The Myths and Maths of Commodity Investing" Kathleen Kelley, Queen Anne's Gate CapitalDavid Osman of the IRF Podcast is joined by Kathleen Kelley of Queen Anne's Gate Capital to discuss "The Myths and Maths of Commodity Investing".----more----
Katheen Kelley, the CEO of Queen Anne’s Gate Capital, is a former commodities fund manager at Tudor Investment and Kingdon Capital. Kathleen is adamant we are not entering a commodity super cycle because every commodity comes with its own cycle and should be addressed individually. However, whilst some commodity markets, particularly metals, seem to be rolling over, energy markets should continue to rise and as an input to every other co...2021-08-1022 minThe IRF Podcast"Global Policy Pivot and the Wake Up Call to Markets" Callum Thomas, Topdown ChartsJamie Stewart of the IRF Podcast is joined by Callum Thomas, the founder of Topdown Charts to discuss ‘Global Policy Pivot and the Wake Up Call to Markets.’ Topdown Charts is a chart driven Macro Research House covering global asset allocation and economics.----more----
Callum gives clear and expert insight into investment strategy, the projects that can be covered by charts and creates a 3 dimensional appreciation of graphic disciplines. He discusses global policy pivot, how it functions and how it is relevant for us all. He explains why central banks are transitioning from suppressors of volatility to sour...2021-06-2924 minThe IRF Podcast"Reading the Mood of the Market" Richard Edwards, HED Capital ManagementJamie Stewart of the IRF Podcast is joined by Richard Edwards, Founder of HED Capital Management, to discuss how to read the mood of the market. HED Capital Management use the tools of behavioural finance to study how shifts in crowd behaviour affect markets.
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Richard begins by emphasising the importance of mood in determining price movements in the market. By examining the ebbs and flows of mood, HED Capital Management have devised various ways to measure it and make predictions. Richard delves into the tools that they use for measuring mood through feedback loops...2021-06-2216 minThe IRF Podcast"Recovery from the Covid Crisis – Sizzle or Fizzle", Carl Weinberg, High Frequency EconomicsDavid Osman of the IRF Podcast is joined by Carl Weinberg, the Managing Director and Chief Economist at High Frequency Economics to discuss ‘Recovery from the Covid Crisis – Sizzle or Fizzle.’ High Frequency Economics has been a trusted source of economic intelligence for the financial community for over 30 years.----more----
The Fed is facing a crisis and there is no good policy option to be had. It is currently looking at extraordinarily high unemployment which it sees as a risk to social stability, financial stability and economic stability – an unaffordable burden on the economy. There is a risk of...2021-06-1017 minThe IRF Podcast"The Changing Shapes of US Politics" Brian Pellegrini, Intertemporal EconomicsDavid Osman of the IRF Podcast is joined by Brian Pellegrini, the Founder and Senior Analyst at Intertemporal Economics. Intertemporal Economics bases its analysis on Macroeconomics.
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Following the election of President Biden, US politics is entering an uncertain period ahead of the mid-term elections next year. The Republican Party are struggling to come to terms with the truth of Trump’s narrow defeat. The Democrats have a very expensive fiscal programme to build back better, but President Biden may not have that much time to implement all of the Democrats ambitious policy agenda. Brian di...2021-06-0117 minThe IRF Podcast“Will Bonds and Bitcoin Survive the Coming Stagflation?”, Derek Sicklen, AAS EconomicsJamie Stewart of the IRF Podcast is joined by Derek Sicklen, Senior Economist at AAS Economics, to discuss whether bonds and bitcoin will survive the coming stagflation.
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Given the dramatic deployment of monetary and fiscal policy over the past year there has been a renewed interest in money supply. Derek outlined what makes his monetary framework different from those of other economists and how he integrates the concept of fiscal policy into his money supply paradigm and principles. As Austrian Economists, they have a very accurate predictor of target fluctuations. There are significant time...2021-05-2525 minThe IRF Podcast"Demographics will Reverse 3 Multi-Decade Trends", Manoj Pradhan, Talking Heads MacroDavid Osman of the IRF Podcast is joined by Manoj Pradhan, the Co-Founder of Talking Heads Macro, to discuss ‘Demographics will Reverse 3 Multi-Decade Trends.’
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There is a growing concern that the Covid-19 pandemic could mark the dividing line between the deflationary forces of the past 30-40 years and resurgent inflation. Manoj discusses the three key demographic trends that will almost inevitably reverse three multi-decade trends and the reason why inflation and the direction of inflation is about to change as demography changes too. He explains how demographic changes will impact on wage growth and cons...2021-05-1222 minThe IRF Podcast"Normality – What is it and can the Financial Markets cope with it?" Michael Taylor, Coldwater EconomicsDavid Osman of the IRF Podcast is joined by Michael Taylor of Coldwater Economics to discuss: ‘Normality – What is it and can the Financial Markets cope with it?'----more----
Michael Taylor founded Coldwater Economics in 2008 following a distinguished career, based mainly in Asia, as a Senior Economist and Head of Equity Research with several leading investment banks including Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank.
Mike concentrates on tracking approximately 500 different data points each month and knows where the world actually is and where it might be going. He is interested in: Return on Capital; Cash Flows; Prof...2021-04-0920 minThe IRF Podcast“How to Instantly Spot Red Flags in Annual Reports”, Jules Hull, StockViewsEdward Blad, CEO and Founder of IRF, is joined by Jules Hull of StockViews. StockViews is a fundamental research firm providing clients with indepth reports on Long and Short ideas sourced from European markets.
----more----Recently StockViews has developed a ground-breaking piece of software called Dragonfly, which systematically highlights potential risks in three major areas: Accounting, Earnings Quality and Governance.
As Annual Report season rolls in Jules explains how Dragonfly works and why its focus on details from the notes to the accounts can provide investors with an edge in spotting risks instantaneously. Dragonfly produces automated...2021-03-0512 minThe IRF Podcast"Fiscal Dominance – What are the Economic Implications of this new US Paradigm" Barry C. Knapp, Ironsides MacroeconomicsDavid Osman of the IRF Podcast is joined by Barry Knapp, Managing Partner and Head of Macro and Public Policy Strategy at Ironsides Macroeconomics to discuss ‘Fiscal Dominance – What are the Economic Implications of this new US Paradigm.’
----more----Barry has had a long and distinguished career in equity derivatives/principal trading/equity strategy research/unconstrained fixing and investment and macroeconomic and public policy strategy.
With the world economy beginning to emerge from the depths of the global pandemic, investors are increasingly focused on the prospects for a period of reflation. What does this mean for future...2021-03-0525 minThe IRF Podcast"The US Economy After The Great Interruption" David Ranson, HCWE & Co.David Osman of the IRF Podcast is joined once again by David Ranson, President of HCWE & Co. HCWE has a clientele of institutional investors, hedge funds and family offices throughout North America and Europe.
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With the uneven roll-out of Covid19 vaccines around the world this year, there is a wider than usual range of forecasts for economic growth and inflation both in 2021 and in 2022. From an investment standpoint a lot depends on the outlook for the US economy. David Ranson explains the difference in the work of HCWE and his evidence for doubting the e...2021-02-1713 minThe IRF Podcast"Is the Game up for the UK Economy?" Peter Warburton, Economic PerspectivesDavid Osman of the IRF Podcast is joined once again by acclaimed economist and author Peter Warburton of Economic Perspectives to discuss whether a bleak future is in store for the UK economy.
----more----Peter is pessimistic about the prospects of the UK economy in the next 3-4 years despite the UK’s relatively strong growth forecast for the year. Whilst Peter predicts a ‘spirited rebound’ in economic activity with the re-opening of the service sector in the second half of the year, Peter envisages this as merely an interval of growth which will last for only a brief...2021-02-0814 minThe IRF Podcast"Top Trades Around the World in 2021" Damanick Dantes, Dantes OutlookIRF CEO & Founder Edward Blad is joined by Damanick Dantes, CMT of Dantes Outlook for this episode of the IRF Podcast titled 'Top Trades Around the World in 2021'.
----more----Damanick explains his market outlook for 2021 including his thoughts on why the market is still in a risk-on scenario and why pullbacks and corrections in the market provide a buying opportunity for investors, particularly in the Commodities market. Damanick believes that outperformance in Commodities is having a global impact that is notable in Latin American equities and thus also providing investment opportunity. Damanick sees further buying opportunities in...2021-02-0412 minThe IRF Podcast"The Outlook for Commodity Prices in 2021" Kathleen Kelley, Queen Anne's Gate CapitalThe IRF Podcast’s David Osman is joined by Kathleen Kelley of Queen Anne’ Gate Capital to discuss ‘The Outlook for Commodity Prices in 2021’.
----more----Kathleen Kelley brings with her over 25 years of experience in global macro research with frequent television appearances on CNBC and Bloomberg. The podcast touches on the case for commodities to take a leading role in the global economic recovery from COVID-19 due to the reluctance of investors to fill their portfolios with stocks and bonds. Kathleen’s career has given her close connections to OPEC decision-makers and a unique perspective on the oil market as...2021-01-2017 minThe IRF Podcast"Do Markets Face a Potential 'Minsky' Moment Collapse?" Ron William, RW AdvisoryThe IRF podcast is delighted to be joined by Ron William, founder of RW Advisory. Ron joins us to discuss what to expect as we enter 2021, sharing over twenty years of market experience.
----more----The podcast indicates January as the crucial barometer for determining market performance for the year ahead and assesses some of the imminent risks facing market stability. Ron
determines that Asia’s “first in and first out” advantage from the pandemic has promoted considerable growth within the region, pushing investment away from Western markets. Determined that Bitcoin is here to stay, Ron assures listeners of its...2021-01-1518 minThe IRF Podcast"Biden, Brexit and the Pandemic in 2021 & 2022" Helen Thomas, Blonde MoneyThe IRF podcast is delighted to be joined by Helen Thomas, founder and CEO of Blonde Money. Helen joins us to discuss Biden, Brexit and future pandemic disruption.
----more----With almost twenty years of experience, Helen cuts through the noise to reveal the political and economic events that drive financial market changes. The podcast looks ahead into 2021 and 2022 to reveal the long-term effects of COVID-19, analysing how human consumption patterns have been fundamentally altered and questioning the effects this will cause on the economy’s future functionality. Helen determines that a post-Brexit U.K.’s success remains with our...2021-01-1218 minThe IRF PodcastIRF Update 2021 Q1An update on IRF and the overall independent investment research market with CEO and Founder, Edward Blad.
2021-01-0815 minThe IRF Podcast"Video Gaming Sector: Highlights of 2020 and Thoughts on 2021" Eric Kress, Gossamer Consulting GroupThe IRF Podcast is joined by Eric Kress of Gossamer Consulting Group to discuss the video gaming sector.
----more----Eric highlights game releases throughout 2020 and what to expect in 2021 as well his recommendations and track record. Companies covered include EA, Activision, Ubisoft, Nintendo and Roblox. Gossamer Consulting Group is an independent research boutique that provides investors and industry clients with primary research on console, mobile, and other related technology companies. With 20 years’ experience in the interactive industry and sell side research, Eric Kress brings deep investment expertise in the technology industry.
2020-12-2323 minThe IRF Podcast"If There is a Year to Be Long Risk, it is 2021!" Dominique Dwor-Frecaut, Dwor-Frecaut MacroThe IRF Podcast is joined by Dominique Dwor-Frecaut of Dwor-Frecaut Macro to discuss her big picture views with practical portfolio implications.
----more----She highlights 2021 as being the year to be in risk assets; expect a 20% increase in the S&P with even better opportunities outside the US. Dominique has worked at the IMF, the World Bank and the New York Fed, on the sell side in Singapore and at US-based macro hedge funds, including Bridgewater and startups in NYC and LA. Her first brush with contrarian thinking was predicting the 1997 Asian crisis while working as country economist for...2020-12-1124 minThe IRF Podcast"US Politics and Economics in 2021: The Establishment Strikes Back" Brian Pellegrini, Intertemporal EconomicsIn the wake of Biden’s US election victory, Brian Pellegrini of Intertemporal Economics joins the IRF Podcast to discuss the implications of the result politically and economically as we move into 2021.
----more----Brian Pellegrini founded Intertemporal Economics in January 2018 and serves as Chief Economist. He previously spent time working as a Senior Analyst for Connolly Insight and as a Structured Products Analyst for Morgan Stanley. Brian also holds an M.B.A. in Business Administration from Columbia Business School.
2020-11-2715 minThe IRF Podcast"The Big Liquidity Story" Michael Howell, CrossBorder CapitalThe IRF Podcast is joined by Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital to discuss The Big Liquidity Story.
----more----CrossBorder Capital brings a different perspective to understanding capital markets and economies by focussing on international capital and domestic liquidity movements. Michael Howell, CEO, developed the quantitative liquidity research methodology while he was Research Director at Salomon Bros. from 1986. He was subsequently appointed Head of Research at Baring Securities in 1992 and was top ranked “Emerging Market Strategist” by institutional investors for the three years prior to setting up CrossBorder Capital.
2020-11-2428 minThe IRF Podcast"China's Development Plans for 2021-2035" Charles Hess, Inferential FocusThe IRF Podcast is joined by Charles Hess of Inferential Focus to discuss the reasons behind China's path of aggressive development across a range of industries and the potential outcomes.
----more----Charles Hess is the Managing Director, President and Owner of Inferential Focus and was a key figure in the founding of Inferential Focus in 1980. Charles also possesses a Ba in Political Science from the University of Rochester.
2020-11-2016 minThe IRF Podcast"How ESG Investing Can Consistently Generate Alpha" François Boutin-Dufresne, Sustainable Market StrategiesThe IRF Podcast is joined by François Boutin-Dufresne of Sustainable Market Strategies to discuss his views on how ESG investing can result in a logical and dependable increase in alpha generation.
----more----François founded Sustainable Market Strategies in May 2018 and worked previously as a Global Macro Research Strategist for Pavilion Global Markets and as an Economist for the International Monetary Fund amongst other roles.
2020-11-0315 minThe IRF Podcast"The Existential Threat Facing the European Union in 2021 and 2022" Brunello Rosa, Rosa & Roubini AssociatesThe IRF Podcast is joined by Brunello Rosa of Rosa & Roubini Associates to discuss his long-term view that the European Union is facing serious internal problems and that the EU's internal issues could easily morph into a Populist controlled European Parliament.
----more----Brunello Rosa is CEO of Rosa & Roubini Associates as well as a member of the Chief Economists Advisory Board of the European Investment Bank and the Advisory Board of the Ambassador of Italy to the UK.
2020-10-2815 minThe IRF Podcast"The Outlook for Inflation: The Impact of Regime Change" Peter Warburton, Economic PerspectivesPeter Warburton joins the IRF podcast to discuss his theory on what regime change can mean for inflation and his thoughts on what effects the pacing of fiscal normalisation.
----more----Peter Warburton has worked as an applied economist since 1975 and has spent time in roles at Robert Fleming, Lehman Brothers and as a member of the IEA's Shadow Monetary Policy Committee.
2020-10-2118 minThe IRF Podcast"The US Economy: Advancing without Effective Monetary or Fiscal Policy" David Ranson, HCWEDavid Ranson, President of HCWE joins the IRF Podcast today to discuss the concerns that he has for the US economy in the near future due to what he sees as a lack of effective policy in both the monetary and fiscal fields.
----more----Prior to his role at HCWE, David Ranson taught economics at the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business and sits as a Fellow of the Institute for Applied Economics.
2020-10-1914 minThe IRF Podcast"The Five Phases of Empire" David Murrin, Global ForecasterGlobal Forecaster's David Murrin joins the IRF Podcast to discuss his model for the growth and decline of civilisations - The Five Phase Life Cycle of Empires.
----more----David's career has spanned over 30 years and included roles in the oil exploration business as well as on the trading floors of JP Morgan.
2020-09-2924 minThe IRF Podcast"China's Plan for the Next 5 Years" William Hess, PRC MacroCEO and Head of Research at PRC Macro, William Hess joins the IRF Podcast to discuss the global implications of policy inside China.
----more----William has previously acted as President of China Monitor and as Director of Sovereign and International Public Finance ratings with Standard & Poor's in Hong Kong.
2020-09-2319 minThe IRF Podcast"The Outlook from Washington - Biden or Trump? The Policy Implications" James Lucier, Capital Alpha PartnersThe latest IRF Podcast features James Lucier, Managing Director at Capital Alpha Partners. James uses his extensive knowledge of D.C. trends and U.S. policy to give an insight into Washington's view of the election and what the consequences of a Biden win or Trump win would be respectively.
2020-09-2219 minThe IRF Podcast"Rising Long-term Bond Yields and Their Portfolio Implications" Michael Belkin, The Belkin ReportMichael Belkin uses his acclaimed proprietary forecast model to explain how long-term bond yields will affect the returns and structuring of investment portfolios going forward.
2020-09-0727 min